DRU: Integrated optimization of evacuation and mass care sheltering for hurricanes

DRU:飓风疏散和群众护理庇护所的综合优化

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    0826832
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 75万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2008-09-01 至 2012-08-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

DRU: Integrated optimization of evacuation and sheltering for hurricanesPI: Rachel Davidson, University of Delaware (UD). Participating Institution: Cornell University.ABSTRACTThe goal of this project is to improve understanding of and decision support for evacuation and mass case sheltering in hurricanes. The task of moving tens or even hundreds of thousands of people from a wide geographic area in only a few days or hours under uncertain, dangerous conditions, getting them to safe locations, and keeping them safe until they can return home is an extraordinarily complicated process, and as Hurricane Katrina made abundantly clear, the stakes are high. Despite a lot of progress, recent events and unchecked population growth in hurricane-prone regions assure us that many challenges remain. The traditional, conservative approach of evacuating everyone thought to be at risk is no longer feasible in many areas in which there are simply too many people and too little transportation capacity. We propose a fundamentally new approach. In the past, math modeling in this application has been limited to estimating the time required to clear a region, assuming many characteristics of the problem are uncontrollable input (e.g., shelter locations). Instead, we will develop sophisticated optimization models with an expanded decision frame that focuses on higher-level objectives, such as minimizing life loss, cost, and inequity, and considers the full range of strategic and operational evacuation and sheltering strategies in meeting those objectives, including for example, vertical evacuation and strategically locating shelters. These models will be developed through a tight interaction between sociologists and engineers to ensure they are firmly grounded in the reality of people?s behavior. For the first time, the models will be based on individual hurricane scenarios instead of conservative aggregations of many events, and they will be dynamic, accounting for the fact that officials can update their decisions as an event unfolds and information about the situation changes. The project has 5 main steps: (1) determine a set of hurricane scenarios for use in evacuation and shelter models such that they appropriately represent the full range of possible events, but are few enough to allow detailed analysis with each; (2) conduct focus groups of key decisionmakers and stakeholders to identify and characterize appropriate decision objectives, constraints, assumptions, and possible evacuation and shelter management strategies; (3) using the focus group input, develop two mathematical optimization models?one long-term strategic and one short-term operational?for evacuation and sheltering decisions; (4) conduct surveys of affected citizens to ensure that the optimization model assumptions and results make sense; and (5) demonstrate the models through case studies in North Carolina and Florida. Any evacuation and sheltering planning effort is only as effective as its weakest link, so it requires a broad range of expertise from marine science, transportation engineering, risk modeling, optimization, and behavioral research collaborating closely. We have assembled this expertise on the project team.This project will help begin to transform the way hurricane evacuation and sheltering are conducted in the U.S., addressing many of the known limitations of the current approach. The new understanding and optimization models developed in this project will help local and state emergency managers better plan for hurricane evacuation and sheltering, thus reducing the deaths, injuries, and unnecessary expense associated with poorly planned or executed response in future hurricanes. By collaborating throughout the project with state and local emergency management departments and the American Red Cross, the key agencies in charge of hurricane evacuation and sheltering, we will ensure that study results are disseminated to practitioners as quickly and effectively as possible. Three graduate students will participate in all aspects of the research, each with at least two of the co-PIs on their committees to ensure tight integration. By providing a substantive example of truly interdisciplinary disaster research, the project will help facilitate the transformation of the well-known Disaster Research Center, historically based in sociology, into an interdisciplinary center. It will also help to launch the new interdisciplinary graduate program in Disaster Science and Management at the University of Delaware.
DRU:飓风疏散和避难的综合优化PI:Rachel Davidson,特拉华大学 (UD)。参与机构:康奈尔大学。摘要该项目的目标是提高对飓风中疏散和大规模病例避难的理解和决策支持。在不确定、危险的条件下,在短短几天或几小时内将数以万计甚至数十万人从广阔的地理区域转移到安全地点,并保证他们安全直到他们可以回家,这是一个极其复杂的过程,正如卡特里娜飓风充分表明的那样,风险很高。尽管取得了很大进展,但最近发生的事件和飓风多发地区不受控制的人口增长向我们保证,仍然存在许多挑战。在许多人口太多、交通运输能力太弱的地区,疏散所有被认为处于危险之中的人的传统保守方法已不再可行。我们提出了一种全新的方法。过去,该应用程序中的数学建模仅限于估计清理某个区域所需的时间,假设问题的许多特征是不可控的输入(例如,避难所位置)。相反,我们将开发复杂的优化模型,扩大决策框架,重点关注更高层次的目标,例如最大限度地减少生命损失、成本和不平等,并考虑实现这些目标的全方位战略和运营疏散和避难策略,包括垂直疏散和战略性安置避难所。这些模型将通过社会学家和工程师之间的紧密互动来开发,以确保它们牢固地扎根于人们行为的现实。这些模型将首次基于单个飓风情景,而不是许多事件的保守汇总,并且它们将是动态的,考虑到官员可以随着事件的发展和有关情况变化的信息更新其决策。该项目有 5 个主要步骤:(1) 确定一组用于疏散和避难所模型的飓风情景,使其能够适当地代表所有可能发生的事件,但又足够少以允许对每个事件进行详细分析; (2) 开展由关键决策者和利益相关者组成的焦点小组,以确定和描述适当的决策目标、限制因素、假设以及可能的疏散和避难所管理策略; (3) 利用焦点小组的意见,开发两种数学优化模型(一种是长期战略模型,一种是短期操作模型),用于疏散和避难决策; (4) 对受影响的公民进行调查,以确保优化模型的假设和结果有意义; (5) 通过北卡罗来纳州和佛罗里达州的案例研究展示模型。任何疏散和避难规划工作的有效性取决于其最薄弱的环节,因此需要海洋科学、交通工程、风险建模、优化和行为研究等领域的广泛专业知识密切合作。我们在项目团队中汇集了这些专业知识。该项目将有助于开始改变美国飓风疏散和避难的方式,解决当前方法的许多已知局限性。该项目中开发的新理解和优化模型将帮助地方和州应急管理人员更好地规划飓风疏散和避难,从而减少未来飓风中因计划或执行不周的响应而造成的死亡、受伤和不必要的费用。通过在整个项目中与州和地方应急管理部门以及负责飓风疏散和避难的主要机构美国红十字会合作,我们将确保研究结果尽快有效地传播给从业人员。三名研究生将参与研究的各个方面,每个研究生的委员会中至少有两名联合 PI,以确保紧密结合。通过提供真正跨学科灾害研究的实质性实例,该项目将有助于促进历史上以社会学为基础的著名灾害研究中心转变为跨学科中心。它还将有助于在特拉华大学启动新的灾害科学与管理跨学科研究生项目。

项目成果

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Rachel Davidson其他文献

Insurability and government-funded mitigation: safer but costlier
  • DOI:
    10.1057/s41288-024-00342-z
  • 发表时间:
    2024-11-26
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.300
  • 作者:
    Dahui Liu;Linda Nozick;Meghan Millea;Jamie Kruse;Rachel Davidson;Joseph Trainor;Junkan Li;Caroline Williams
  • 通讯作者:
    Caroline Williams
A Deep Generative Framework for Joint Households and Individuals Population Synthesis
联合家庭和个人人口综合的深层生成框架
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2024
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Xiao Qian;Utkarsh Gangwal;Shangjia Dong;Rachel Davidson
  • 通讯作者:
    Rachel Davidson
Computing multi-region competitive prices for hurricane-related insurance
计算与飓风相关的保险的多区域竞争价格
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105383
  • 发表时间:
    2025-04-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.500
  • 作者:
    Dahui Liu;Linda Nozick;Jamie Kruse;Meghan Millea;Junkan Li;Rachel Davidson
  • 通讯作者:
    Rachel Davidson
Application of remote sensing in support of regional disaster risk modeling
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s11069-013-0587-0
  • 发表时间:
    2013-02-06
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.700
  • 作者:
    Rachel Davidson
  • 通讯作者:
    Rachel Davidson

Rachel Davidson的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Rachel Davidson', 18)}}的其他基金

Large-scale CoPe: Coastal Hazards, Equity, Economic prosperity, and Resilience (CHEER)
大规模 CoPe:沿海灾害、公平、经济繁荣和复原力 (CHEER)
  • 批准号:
    2209190
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Cooperative Agreement
SCC-CIVIC-PG Track B: An Integrated Scenario-based Hurricane Evacuation Management Tool to Support Community Preparedness
SCC-CIVIC-PG Track B:支持社区防备的基于场景的综合飓风疏散管理工具
  • 批准号:
    2040488
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Leveraging Massive Smartphone Location Data to Improve Understanding and Prediction of Behavior in Hurricanes
合作研究:利用海量智能手机位置数据提高对飓风行为的理解和预测
  • 批准号:
    2002589
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
LEAP-HI: Embedding Regional Hurricane Risk Management in the Life of a Community: A Computational Framework
LEAP-HI:将区域飓风风险管理融入社区生活:计算框架
  • 批准号:
    1830511
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
CRISP Type 2/Collaborative Research: Defining and Optimizing Societal Objectives for the Earthquake Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure
CRISP 类型 2/合作研究:定义和优化关键基础设施地震风险管理的社会目标
  • 批准号:
    1735483
  • 财政年份:
    2017
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Modeling Multiple Stakeholder Decision-Making to Reduce Regional Natural Disaster Risk
协作研究:采用跨学科方法对多个利益相关者决策进行建模以减少区域自然灾害风险
  • 批准号:
    1435298
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Hazards SEES Type 2: Dynamic Integration of Natural, Human, and Infrastructure Systems for Hurricane Evacuation and Sheltering
灾害 SEES 类型 2:飓风疏散和庇护的自然、人类和基础设施系统的动态整合
  • 批准号:
    1331269
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: Career Enhancement of Academic Women in Earthquake Engineering Research (ENHANCE)
合作研究:地震工程研究中学术女性的职业提升(ENHANCE)
  • 批准号:
    1141442
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
RAPID: Post-Earthquake Fires in the March 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
RAPID:2011 年 3 月日本地震和海啸中的震后火灾
  • 批准号:
    1138675
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
RAPID/Collaborative Research: San Bruno, California, September 9, 2010, Gas Pipeline Explosion and Fire
RAPID/合作研究:加利福尼亚州圣布鲁诺,2010 年 9 月 9 日,天然气管道爆炸和火灾
  • 批准号:
    1103823
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 75万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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