Collaborative Research: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Modeling Multiple Stakeholder Decision-Making to Reduce Regional Natural Disaster Risk

协作研究：采用跨学科方法对多个利益相关者决策进行建模以减少区域自然灾害风险

• 批准号: 1435298
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 30.66万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2018-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1435298&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Interdisciplinary; Approach; Modeling

Natural disasters create enormous costs for the United States. Despite many private sector and public policy efforts over decades, the current system of managing natural disaster risk is not working well for the government, the insurance industry, or homeowners. Previous research has resulted in extensive knowledge about how individuals and organizations make risk-related decisions, the strategic behavior of individual insurers and the insurance market as a whole, as well as natural disaster risk itself and ways to physically reduce it. Nevertheless, efforts to understand how the choices of the different participating groups or stakeholders interact as a "system" have been limited. The proposed project will result in a new framework of interacting mathematical models that can be used to better understand, design, and evaluate government natural disaster risk management policies, such as providing funds to help homeowners strengthen their homes, requiring homeowners to buy natural disaster insurance, or offering to buy high-risk homes. By supporting improved design and evaluation of public policies, the project will help the country better manage its risk. By considering the individual, sometimes competing stakeholder points-of-view up front, as an integral part of the analysis, the new framework will make it easier to identify those win-win system-wide solutions that are most likely to be put into action and to be effective. The framework is designed to be consistent with the "whole community" approach promoted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which encourages involving all parts of the community in helping to address the challenge. Engaging representatives of the relevant government agencies and insurance and home building industries as partners at the beginning of the project will help ensure that the research offers usable results that can be put into practice as quickly and effectively as possible. Graduate and undergraduate research assistants, including women and underrepresented minorities, will participate in the research, and the researchers will incorporate the results into their courses and new Ph.D. programs at their universities. The project will result in a leap forward in understanding the overall behavior of the natural disaster risk management system in the U.S., thus helping provide the knowledge needed to improve it.To achieve these benefits, this project will develop a new framework that will include five interacting mathematical models of (1) government decisions about what regulations to introduce and/or incentives to offer,(2) insurer decisions about what to charge for insurance policies and what reinsurance to buy, (3) competition among insurers, (4) individual homeowner decisions about whether to buy insurance and/or strengthen their homes, and (5) regional natural disaster losses. The project will make use of an existing first version of the framework that includes interacting insurer-homeowner and loss models but, will improve on that effort substantially through five tasks: (1) identifying categories of homeowner decision types and a homeowner decision model that is based on data describing how homeowners actually make these decisions in real life, (2) extending the framework to include the way decisions and information change over time, (3) including situations in which the stakeholders do not have perfect or the same information, (4) developing and incorporating a model of government decisions, and (5) demonstrating the framework in a full-scale case study applied to residential hurricane risk in North Carolina.

自然灾害给美国造成了巨大的损失。尽管几十年来私营部门和公共政策做出了许多努力，但目前管理自然灾害风险的系统对政府、保险业或房主来说并不奏效。以往的研究已经对个人和组织如何做出与风险相关的决策、个体保险公司和整个保险市场的战略行为以及自然灾害风险本身和实际减少自然灾害风险的方法等方面有了广泛的了解，但是，对不同参与群体或利益相关者的选择如何作为一个"系统"相互作用的理解还很有限。拟议的项目将产生一个新的互动数学模型框架，可用于更好地理解，设计和评估政府自然灾害风险管理政策，例如提供资金帮助房主加固房屋，要求房主购买自然灾害保险，或提供购买高风险房屋。通过支持改进公共政策的设计和评价，该项目将帮助该国更好地管理其风险。新的框架将考虑到个别利益攸关方的观点，有时是相互竞争的利益攸关方的观点，作为分析的一个组成部分，从而更容易确定最有可能付诸行动和有效的双赢全系统解决方案。该框架旨在与联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）倡导的"整个社区"方法保持一致，该方法鼓励社区所有部分参与帮助应对挑战。在项目开始时，让相关政府机构、保险和住宅建筑行业的代表作为合作伙伴参与进来，将有助于确保研究提供可用的结果，并尽可能快速有效地付诸实践。研究生和本科生研究助理，包括女性和代表性不足的少数民族，将参与研究，研究人员将把结果纳入他们的课程和新的博士学位。在他们的大学里。该项目将导致对美国自然灾害风险管理系统整体行为的理解发生飞跃，从而帮助提供改进所需的知识。为了实现这些好处，本项目将开发一个新的框架，该框架将包括五个相互作用的数学模型：（1）政府关于引入什么法规和/或提供什么激励的决策，（2）保险公司关于对保险单收取什么费用和购买什么再保险的决策，（3）保险公司之间的竞争，（4）个人房主决定是否购买保险和/或加固他们的房屋，以及（5）区域自然灾害损失。该项目将利用该框架现有的第一版，其中包括交互的保险人-房主和损失模型，但将通过五项任务大幅改进这一工作：（1）识别房主决策类型的类别和基于描述房主在真实的生活中如何实际做出这些决策的数据的房主决策模型，（2）扩展框架，以包括决策和信息随时间变化的方式，（3）包括利益相关者没有完美或相同信息的情况，（4）开发和整合政府决策模型，以及（5）在一个应用于北卡罗来纳州居民飓风风险的全尺度案例研究中展示了该框架。