LEAP-HI: Embedding Regional Hurricane Risk Management in the Life of a Community: A Computational Framework

LEAP-HI：将区域飓风风险管理融入社区生活：计算框架

• 批准号: 1830511
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 199.96万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1830511&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: LEAP; HI; Embedding; Regional; Hurricane

The effort in this Leading Engineering for America's Prosperity, Health, and Infrastructure (LEAP-HI) award provides a scientific framework for evaluating the risks of hurricanes to residential communities and public policies to manage them. Disaster losses in the United States continue to grow despite a wealth of interdisciplinary knowledge and many interventions intended to minimize their effects. A breakthrough in disaster risk reduction requires an approach that views disasters not as abnormal events, but as a regular part of a community's evolution and that recognizes that disaster risk management is inextricably interwoven with the normal activities of everyday life. A novel computational modeling framework will implement this approach to understand escalating regional natural disaster risks and support the design of public policy interventions to address them. The system-wide analysis framework will consider the perspectives of and interactions among multiple key stakeholders (government, primary insurers, and homeowners), multiple interventions (home strengthening, insurance, land use planning), and secondary factors that affect risk. The framework will directly support management of the country's natural disaster risk and promise long-term societal benefits through improved quality of life and economic competitiveness. Collaboration with representatives of the home building and insurance industries and relevant government agencies will help ensure practical results and wide dissemination. Summer internships for William A. Anderson Fund Graduate Student Fellows, all scholars from underrepresented groups, will help broaden participation in disaster research and practice. The Multistakeholder Disaster Risk Management (MDRM) computational framework will include seven interacting mathematical models representing physically-based simulations of damage, losses, and ways to strengthen homes; decision-making by each main stakeholder type (government, primary insurers, and homeowners) including oligopolistic competition among insurers; and the changing building inventory and regional economy that provide the context. It will build on an existing framework that the investigators have developed, expanding it through the integration of six tasks: (1) Identify a broad range of government interventions, including both risk-focused and risk-influential actions; (2) Develop a new empirically-based homeowner decision model that considers the process by which homeowners initiate risk-focused and risk-influential decisions; (3) Develop a dynamic model of the insurance market; (4) Develop a dynamic building inventory model; (5) Develop a dynamic regional economic model that interacts with the building inventory; and (6) Conduct a full-scale case study for hurricanes in North Carolina. This project promises improved understanding of the creation and management of regional natural disaster risk by, for the first time, uniting the conceptualization of disasters as part of the normal life of a community with the power of quantitative, dynamic engineering modeling of risk, decision-making, and economics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项“美国繁荣、健康和基础设施领先工程”（LEAP-HI）奖的努力为评估飓风对住宅社区的风险以及管理这些风险的公共政策提供了科学框架。 尽管有丰富的跨学科知识和许多旨在尽量减少灾害影响的干预措施，美国的灾害损失仍在继续增长。要在减少灾害风险方面取得突破，就必须采取一种办法，不把灾害视为异常事件，而是社区演变的一个正常部分，并认识到灾害风险管理与日常生活的正常活动密不可分。一个新的计算建模框架将实施这种方法，以了解不断升级的区域自然灾害风险，并支持公共政策干预措施的设计，以解决这些问题。全系统分析框架将考虑多个关键利益攸关方（政府、主要保险人和房主）的观点和相互作用、多种干预措施（房屋加固、保险、土地使用规划）以及影响风险的次要因素。该框架将直接支持管理该国的自然灾害风险，并承诺通过提高生活质量和经济竞争力来实现长期社会效益。与住宅建筑和保险行业代表以及相关政府机构的合作将有助于确保取得实际成果和广泛传播。暑期实习威廉A。安德森基金研究生研究员，所有学者来自代表性不足的群体，将有助于扩大参与灾害研究和实践。多利益相关者灾害风险管理（MDRM）计算框架将包括七个相互作用的数学模型，代表基于物理的损害，损失和加固房屋的方法的模拟;每个主要利益相关者类型（政府，主要保险公司和房主）的决策，包括保险公司之间的寡头竞争;以及不断变化的建筑物库存和区域经济。它将建立在调查人员已经开发的现有框架之上，通过整合六项任务来扩展它：（1）确定广泛的政府干预措施，包括以风险为重点的和有风险影响力的行动;（2）开发一个新的基于风险的房主决策模型，考虑房主发起以风险为重点和有风险影响力的决策的过程;（3）开发一个保险市场的动态模型;（4）开发一个动态建筑物库存模型;（5）开发一个与建筑物库存相互作用的动态区域经济模型;（6）对北卡罗来纳州的飓风进行全面的案例研究。该项目有望通过首次将灾害概念化作为社区正常生活的一部分，并结合风险、决策、该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得通过评估使用基金会的知识优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

Perceived attributes of hurricane-related retrofits and their effect on household adoption

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04165-8
• 发表时间: 2020-07
• 期刊: Natural Hazards
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Yilin Zou;Alexia Stock;R. Davidson;L. Nozick;J. Trainor;Jamie L. Kruse

Regional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane risk

区域县级住房库存预测及其对飓风风险的影响

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Williams, Caroline J.;Davidson, Rachel A.;Nozick, Linda K.;Trainor, Joseph E.;Millea, Meghan;Kruse, Jamie L.
• 通讯作者: Kruse, Jamie L.

Mitigation insights from emergency managers on working with stakeholders

应急管理人员关于与利益相关者合作的缓解见解

• DOI: 10.5055/jem.0699
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Emergency Management
• 作者: Slotter, Rachel;Millea, Meghan;Trainor, Joseph;Davidson, Rachel;Kruse, Jamie;Nozick, Linda
• 通讯作者: Nozick, Linda

Homeowner mitigation decision‐making: Exploring the theory of planned behaviour approach

房主缓解决策：探索计划行为方法理论

• DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12667
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of Flood Risk Management
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: Slotter, Rachel;Trainor, Joseph;Davidson, Rachel;Kruse, Jamie;Nozick, Linda
• 通讯作者: Nozick, Linda

Effects of Roof Shape and Roof Pitch on Extreme Wind Fragility for Roof Sheathing

屋顶形状和屋顶坡度对屋顶覆层极端风脆性的影响

• DOI: 10.1061/jsendh.steng-11846
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Structural Engineering
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: Meng, Shuochuan;Williams, Caroline J.;Davidson, Rachel A.;Taciroglu, Ertugrul
• 通讯作者: Taciroglu, Ertugrul