SCC-CIVIC-PG Track B: An Integrated Scenario-based Hurricane Evacuation Management Tool to Support Community Preparedness

SCC-CIVIC-PG Track B：支持社区防备的基于场景的综合飓风疏散管理工具

• 批准号: 2040488
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-02-15 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2040488&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SCC; CIVIC; PG; Track; Integrated

As a hurricane approaches, emergency managers must determine when and where to issue official evacuation orders. It requires integrating large amounts of uncertain, changing information to make consequential decisions in a short time frame under pressure, and the stakes are high. An opportunity exists to leverage recent research—in particular, the Integrated Scenario-based Evacuation (ISE) tool—to help meet that challenge. This team designed the ISE tool to be run for a particular hurricane as it approaches the U.S. When run at a point in time, it generates a set of contingency plans and defines the circumstances under which to implement each, depending on how the hurricane evolves. Each plan includes recommendations about whether or not to issue an evacuation order for each geographic evacuation zone, and if so, when.While the new technology has promise, moving from research to practice brings its own challenges. The objectives of Stage 1, therefore, are to: (1) Determine how the new tool and its output can support emergency managers’ natural decision-making process; (2) Conduct a needs assessment for the tool; and (3) Advance understanding of community innovation in disaster management. The Stage 2 objective is to implement an operational prototype of the ISE-based decision support tool for North Carolina. The emergency manager partners will ensure the tool is of practical use; the researchers will ensure it reflects the best science; and the industry partner will ensure its impact is sustainable by hosting it on their platform.The ISE tool uses a multi-stage stochastic programming model to provide a tree of recommended evacuation orders and a performance evaluation for that set of recommendations. Benefits of the tool are that it provides an integrated hazard assessment with uncertainty that includes the effects of storm surge, wind waves, tides, river discharge, inland flooding, and wind; it explicitly balances competing objectives of minimizing risk and travel time; it offers a well-hedged solution robust under the range of hurricane evolutions; and it is adaptive, leveraging the value of decreasing uncertainty during an event. Stage 1 will include focus groups of key stakeholders to determine the process of innovation; a needs assessment; and analysis and planning for the next stage. In Stage 2, we will (1) make the tool faster and easier to run by moving it to a GPU platform and exploiting opportunities for parallelization; (2) develop an interactive graphical user interface; and (3) improve the modeling by adding treatment of institutionalized vulnerable populations.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

随着飓风的临近，应急管理人员必须确定何时何地发布官方疏散命令。它需要整合大量不确定的、不断变化的信息，以便在压力下在短时间内做出重大决策，而且风险很高。存在一个利用最近研究的机会--特别是基于集成场景的疏散（伊势）工具--来帮助应对这一挑战。该团队设计了伊势工具，用于在飓风接近美国时运行特定的飓风。当在某个时间点运行时，它会生成一套应急计划，并根据飓风的演变情况定义实施每一项计划的情况。每个计划都包括是否为每个地理疏散区发布疏散令的建议，如果是，何时发布。虽然新技术有希望，但从研究到实践也带来了挑战。因此，第一阶段的目标是：（1）确定新工具及其产出如何支持应急管理人员的自然决策过程;（2）对工具进行需求评估;（3）促进对灾害管理社区创新的理解。第2阶段的目标是实现北卡罗来纳州的基于ISE的决策支持工具的操作原型。应急管理合作伙伴将确保该工具具有实用性;研究人员将确保其反映最佳科学;行业合作伙伴将通过将其托管在其平台上来确保其影响是可持续的。伊势工具使用多阶段随机规划模型来提供建议疏散命令树和该建议集的性能评估。该工具的好处是，它提供了一个综合的危险评估与不确定性，包括风暴潮的影响，风浪，潮汐，河流排放，内陆洪水，风;它明确地平衡竞争的目标，最大限度地减少风险和旅行时间;它提供了一个良好的对冲解决方案，在飓风演变的范围内稳健;它是自适应的，利用减少事件期间的不确定性的价值。第一阶段将包括主要利益攸关方的重点小组，以确定创新进程;需求评估;以及下一阶段的分析和规划。在第二阶段，我们将（1）通过将工具转移到GPU平台并利用并行化的机会，使工具更快，更容易运行;（2）开发交互式图形用户界面;以及（3）该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值进行评估来支持和更广泛的影响审查标准。