CRISP Type 2/Collaborative Research: Defining and Optimizing Societal Objectives for the Earthquake Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure

CRISP 类型 2/合作研究：定义和优化关键基础设施地震风险管理的社会目标

• 批准号: 1735483
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 104.15万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1735483&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CRISP; Type; Collaborative; Research; Defining

Critical infrastructure systems, such as electric power and water supply, are vital to the economy, national security, and public health, and therefore must be designed, managed, and operated so they function reliably and efficiently even in the case of an extreme event. Nevertheless, the way infrastructure system services meet societal needs and the way disruptions of those services impair the ability to meet societal needs are not well understood. That is, a lot remains unknown about the relationship between the percentage of customers receiving water or power from a utility, and the ability of businesses to operate; emergency services to perform their duties; households to get to work and school; individuals to eat, drink, and bathe. In this project, we will define the societal objectives for infrastructure system performance in earthquakes and develop a method to comprehensively optimize a broad range of risk management strategies to meet them. The method will provide a scientific basis to help infrastructure managers and policymakers in such crucial functions as emergency planning, retrofit planning, and drafting design codes. To accomplish these goals, this interdisciplinary project explicitly recognizes that infrastructure systems include not only physical objects, but also the uses, preferences, capabilities, and decisions of infrastructure operators and users. It also considers the adaptive strategies employed by operators and users in the event of a disaster that interrupts service (e.g., delaying demand, or supplementing supply with bottled water or a generator). We will improve academia-industry partnerships by engaging with our practitioner partners at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power on a full-scale case study for electricity and water in Los Angeles, and with other agencies through a sequence of expert interviews. The project will help broaden participation in disaster research and practice by providing summer internships for the underrepresented scholars who are William A. Anderson Fund Graduate Fellows. Post-docs and graduate and undergraduate research assistants will participate in all aspects of the project. Specific project tasks include: (1) Developing a probabilistic scenario-based model of the risk of multiple infrastructure systems to earthquakes with the ability to evaluate alternative risk management strategies; (2) Integrating the complementary strengths of social media, household surveys, and economic impact analyses to empirically assess societal objectives, users? adaptive strategies in responding to disruptions, and the relationships between them and traditional measures of system functioning; (3) Developing an optimization model to optimize risk management to meet societal objectives; and (4) Demonstrating models through a full-scale case study for electric power and water. The new knowledge will provide the scientific basis to support more effective and efficient risk reduction by optimizing for the true societal objectives and over a broad range of strategies, including component design, upgrading, and repair and restoration planning. Defining societal objectives will help strengthen the business case for any required interventions.

电力和供水等关键基础设施系统对经济、国家安全和公共卫生至关重要，因此必须进行设计、管理和运营，使其即使在极端事件情况下也能可靠、高效地运行。然而，基础设施系统服务满足社会需求的方式以及这些服务的中断如何削弱满足社会需求的能力尚不清楚。也就是说，从公用事业公司获得水或电的客户百分比与企业运营能力之间的关系仍然有很多未知之处；紧急服务部门履行职责；家庭上班和上学；个人吃饭、喝水、洗澡。在这个项目中，我们将定义地震中基础设施系统性能的社会目标，并开发一种方法来全面优化广泛的风险管理策略来实现这些目标。该方法将为帮助基础设施管理者和政策制定者履行应急规划、改造规划和起草设计规范等关键职能提供科学依据。为了实现这些目标，这个跨学科项目明确认识到基础设施系统不仅包括物理对象，还包括基础设施运营商和用户的用途、偏好、能力和决策。它还考虑了运营商和用户在发生导致服务中断的灾难时采用的适应性策略（例如，延迟需求，或用瓶装水或发电机补充供应）。我们将通过与洛杉矶水电部的从业伙伴合作开展洛杉矶电力和水务的全面案例研究，并通过一系列专家访谈与其他机构合作，改善学术界与工业界的合作关系。该项目将通过为威廉·A·安德森基金会研究生研究员等代表性不足的学者提供暑期实习机会，帮助扩大对灾害研究和实践的参与。博士后、研究生和本科生研究助理将参与该项目的各个方面。 具体项目任务包括：（1）开发基于概率场景的多个基础设施系统地震风险模型，并能够评估替代风险管理策略； (2) 整合社交媒体、家庭调查和经济影响分析的互补优势，以实证评估社会目标、用户？应对干扰的适应性策略，以及它们与系统功能的传统衡量标准之间的关系； (3) 开发优化模型以优化风险管理以实现社会目标； (4) 通过电力和水力的全面案例研究来演示模型。新知识将为通过优化真正的社会目标和广泛的策略（包括组件设计、升级以及维修和恢复规划）来支持更有效和高效地降低风险提供科学基础。定义社会目标将有助于加强任何所需干预措施的商业案例。

项目成果

Searching for signal and borrowing wi-fi: Understanding disaster-related adaptations to telecommunications disruptions through social media

搜索信号并借用 Wi-Fi：通过社交媒体了解与灾害相关的电信中断适应措施

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103548
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Van Wyk, Hannah;Cruz-Antonio, Osiris;Quintero-Perez, Diana;Garcia, Sayra Damian;Davidson, Rachel;Kendra, James;Starbird, Kate
• 通讯作者: Starbird, Kate

Investment planning for earthquake-resilient electric power systems considering cascading outages

• DOI: 10.1177/87552930221076870
• 发表时间: 2022-02
• 期刊: Earthquake Spectra
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Boyu Cheng;L. Nozick;I. Dobson

Household Adaptations to and Impacts from Electric Power and Water Outages in the Texas 2021 Winter Storm

家庭对 2021 年德克萨斯州冬季风暴停电和停水的适应和影响

• DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1742
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Natural Hazards Review
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Soleimani, Nafiseh;Davidson, Rachel A.;Kendra, James;Ewing, Bradley;Nozick, Linda K.
• 通讯作者: Nozick, Linda K.

Dynamics of Power Prices and Water Production in Los Angeles: Implications for Earthquake Resilience and Recovery

洛杉矶的电价和水生产动态：对地震恢复和恢复的影响

• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: The Empirical economics letters
• 作者: Ewing, B. T.

Analyzing Social Media Data to Understand How Disaster-Affected Individuals Adapt to Disaster-Related Telecommunications Disruptions

分析社交媒体数据以了解受灾个人如何适应与灾害相关的电信中断

• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: CoRe Paper – Social Media for Disaster Response and Resilience Proceedings of the 17th ISCRAM Conference
• 作者: Van Wyk, Hannah;Starbird, Kate
• 通讯作者: Starbird, Kate