The Macroeconomics and Financial Market Affectsof Housing Wealth and Housing Finance

宏观经济和金融市场对住房财富和住房金融的影响

• 批准号: 1022915
• 负责人: Sydney Ludvigson
• 金额: $ 42.39万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-01 至 2014-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1022915&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Macroeconomics; Financial; Market; Affectsof; Housing

The work described in this proposal aims to build our understanding of the ways in which housing wealth and housing finance affect the macroeconomy and asset markets.Intellectual Merit: This proposal considers several specific questions of importance to both theoretical and empirical inquiry in financial economics. To what extent can episodes of national house price appreciation relative to housing fundamentals be attributed to a liberalization in housing finance, such as declines in collateral constraints or reductions in the costs of borrowing and conducting transactions? How do movements in house prices affect expectations about future housing fundamentals and future home price appreciation? To what extent do changes in housing wealth and housing finance affect output and investment, risk premia in housing and equity markets, measures of cross-sectional risk-sharing, life-cycle wealth-savings patterns, and the size of housing wealth e¤ects on consumer spending? The existing literature has addressed parts of these questions in isolation using either partial equilibrium models, or using general equilibrium models that abstract from some features of interest, such as idiosyncratic risk, output and production, or multiple risky asset markets. The goal of this research is to address these questions using a model that is sufficiently general as to account for the endogeneity of financial and housing wealth, real quantities, rates of return and risk premia, portfolio choice, and consumption and wealth inequality.The methodology is theoretical. The PI's study a two-sector general equilibrium model of housing and non-housing production where heterogenous households face limited risk-sharing opportunities as a result of incomplete financial markets for insuring both idiosyncratic and aggregate risks. A house in the model is a residential durable asset that provides utility to the household, is illiquid (expensive to trade), and can be used as collateral in debt obligations. The model economy is populated by a large number of overlapping generations of households who receive utility from both housing and nonhousing consumption and who face a stochastic life-cycle earnings profile.Broader Impact: The results of the proposed research will be of relevance to policymakers and market economists, as well as academics. Understanding the theoretical frameworks that can shed light on the endogenous relationships among wealth, consumption, asset markets and heterogeneity is fundamental for the informed and timely conduct of monetary policy, and for the effective use of macroeconomic analysis required of industry practitioners. In addition, the research described in this proposal, with its emphasis on the interplay between financial markets and the real economy, can also form a bedrock for studying the ramifications of specific policy initiatives, such as the likely effects of subsidizing housing transactions costs and interest payments and of more tightly regulating collateral requirements. The empirical investigations of this research agenda have the potential not only to expand the state of knowledge about the theoretical relationships between housing and the macroeconomy, but also to facilitate our understanding of the future course of economic activity, its implications for financial markets and house prices relative to housing fundamentals. In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, a better understanding of these mechanisms will be crucial to the continued implementation of sound economic policy and financial practice.

本提案中所描述的工作旨在建立我们对住房财富和住房金融影响宏观经济和资产市场的方式的理解。智力价值：本提案考虑了金融经济学中理论和实证调查都很重要的几个具体问题。在何种程度上，国家房价相对于住房基本面的上涨可归因于住房融资的自由化，例如抵押限制的减少或借贷和交易成本的降低？房价的变动如何影响对未来住房基本面和未来房价升值的预期？住房财富和住房融资的变化在多大程度上影响了产出和投资、住房和股票市场的风险溢价、横截面风险分担的衡量标准、生命周期财富储蓄模式以及住房财富的规模对消费者支出的影响？现有的文献已经解决了这些问题的一部分，孤立地使用部分均衡模型，或使用一般均衡模型，抽象的一些功能的利益，如特质风险，产量和生产，或多个风险资产市场。本研究的目标是使用一个模型来解决这些问题，该模型足够普遍，可以解释金融和住房财富的内消、真实的数量、回报率和风险溢价、投资组合选择以及消费和财富不平等。PI研究了住房和非住房生产的两部门一般均衡模型，其中异质家庭面临有限的风险分担机会，这是由于不完整的金融市场为特殊风险和总体风险提供保险。模型中的房屋是一种住宅耐用资产，为家庭提供实用性，是非流动性的（交易昂贵），可以用作债务抵押品。该模型的经济是由大量的重叠世代的家庭谁收到公用事业从住房和非住房消费，谁面临着随机的生命周期earnings profile.Broader影响：拟议的研究结果将是相关的政策制定者和市场经济学家，以及学者。理解能够揭示财富、消费、资产市场和异质性之间内生关系的理论框架，对于明智和及时地实施货币政策，以及有效利用行业从业者所需的宏观经济分析至关重要。此外，本提案所述的研究强调金融市场与真实的经济之间的相互作用，也可为研究具体政策举措的影响奠定基础，如补贴住房交易成本和利息支付以及更严格地监管抵押要求可能产生的影响。这一研究议程的实证调查不仅有可能扩大住房和宏观经济之间的理论关系的知识状态，而且还有助于我们理解未来的经济活动，其对金融市场和房价相对于住房基本面的影响。在2007年开始的全球金融危机之后，更好地了解这些机制对于继续执行健全的经济政策和金融做法至关重要。