Collaborative Research: Arctic Predictability

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The proposed project will respond to one of the driving questions of the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH): "To what extent is the Arctic system predictable?" The project will quantify near-term (seasonal to decadal) predictability by drawing upon the observational records of surface air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure and sea ice coverage. The near-term predictions will be placed into a framework of probabilities, based on the recent record of variability, that the upcoming period (1, 2, 5, 10? years) will see various increments of change of temperature, precipitation, pressure and sea ice. Longer-term predictability will be quantified in terms of decadal likelihoods of change based on output from a suite of global climate models, with the likelihoods integrated across models and forcing scenarios. Potential predictability inherent in low-frequency variability will be assessed and compared with results from global studies. Spatial mapping of the probabilistic results will be implemented at a website that will allow users to construct pan-Arctic maps of the probability-of-exceedance of a threshold of a selected variable in a particular timeslice. Finally, we will provide an Arctic focus for the seasonal-to-decadal predictability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), which will enable the diagnosis of Arctic predictability inherent in the initial states of the ocean and surface variables (snow, ice). The broader impacts of the proposed project lie in the utilization of the results by the user community (stakeholders, planners, and Arctic communities). The products of this study will link the science of Arctic change, as captured by Arctic observations and global climate models, with a "responding" component that includes adaptation and mitigation.