CAREER: A Multi-Scale Approach to Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrologic and Geomorphic Response of Watershed Systems within an Uncertainty Framework

职业：在不确定性框架内评估气候变化对流域系统水文和地貌响应影响的多尺度方法

• 批准号: 1151443
• 负责人: Valeriy Ivanov
• 金额: $ 54.83万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-06-01 至 2017-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1151443&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Multi; Scale; Approach; Assessment

The current ways of assessing the impacts of climate change on watershed systems are inadequate: they are based on ad hoc selection of climate models; they focus on metrics at very coarse scales detached from the reality of human activities and ecosystem services at the local (often the stream reach or floodplain) scales; and they do not yield any assessment of uncertainty associated with watershed modeling and projections into the future. This research will bridge the multi-scale, space-time connectivity of watershed systems and address uncertainty associated with their predictions through a comprehensive program of inter-disciplinary modeling and field observations and outdoor, lecture, and lab educational activities. The project will focus on the state of Michigan, where a number of observed metrics already demonstrate trends consistent with a warming climate, including shorter winters, higher mean annual temperatures, and higher frequency of heavy precipitation events. In the research component of the project, a number of case studies will be developed throughout the state along the south-southeast ? north-northwest climatic, hydrologic, and agricultural activities gradient. In addition to a synthesis of a large array of existing data sets, in situ monitoring of climatic forcing and characteristics of flow regime will be carried out to provide data for model evaluation. Multi-model ensembles of climate change projections from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project will be downscaled using ?fossil-intensive?, ?mid-?, and ?lower-level? future emission scenarios of carbon dioxide (defined according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The inferred probabilistic information will be used to assess climate change impacts on watershed systems for early (2010?2039), mid- (2040?2069), and late century (2070?2099) periods. Specifically, changes in essential characteristics of hydrological and hydrodynamic regimes will be investigated for the case study basins using a multi-scale, physically-based framework of modeling watershed surface/subsurface processes and flow hydrodynamics, integrated through a capability of Nested Dynamics Modeling. The total uncertainty associated with biases of climate projections and inaccuracies of a watershed model will be quantified. An extensive data set of downscaled climate projections and outputs of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling generated in this research will provide a comprehensive volume of information required in climate change compensation and mitigation planning. The outreach component of the project will implement educational activities focusing to enhance the science class program of 7th graders in Title I schools and increase awareness of the consequences of human activities on watershed processes. The emphasis of educational activities of a week-long summer-school will be placed on underserved and underrepresented groups of students of Native American youth of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota tribes. Through the integration of research and outreach programs, the project will benefit the hydrological sciences community, middle-school, undergraduate, and graduate students.Global climate models are the tools used for exploring how earth?s climate will evolve in future under different scenarios of human activity. Outputs of these models are used in climate impact studies. The typical applications of these studies concern large-scale hydrologic variables for areas of hundreds-to-thousands of square miles; very rarely they can provide the associated uncertainty; currently, there are no studies that can address future impacts on flow hydrodynamic characteristics or floodplain inundation. Yet, most of climate change compensation and mitigation strategies require information that is relevant to scales of human activities and ecosystem services, which typically focus on watersheds, streams, agricultural fields, etc. They also require an estimate of uncertainty associated with projection into the future to make better informed decisions in conditions of climate projection inaccuracies. Responding to these societal needs, this research will use maximum available information on climate change in the form of multi-model projections and develop methodologies that will infer uncertainty of climate change predictions. In contrast to previous studies, the project will synthesize a range of hydrologic/hydrodynamic models and observational data to create capabilities for propagating information on climate signals through the entire watershed system: from headwater (source) areas to stream channels, and to the details of flow characteristics. To ensure that the issues of model applications are addressed specifically and that research findings make a practical impact, case studies will be developed throughout the state of Michigan. Furthermore, this CAREER project will integrate educational activities focusing to enhance the science class program of underserved/underrepresented student groups (low income families and Native Americans) targeting to empower their mind-sets to become future leaders and pursue science and engineering as their career choices

目前评估气候变化对流域系统影响的方法是不够的：它们是基于对气候模型的特别选择;它们侧重于非常粗略的尺度，与当地（通常是河流河段或洪泛区）尺度上人类活动和生态系统服务的现实脱节;它们没有对与流域建模和未来预测相关的不确定性进行任何评估。这项研究将弥合流域系统的多尺度时空连通性，并通过跨学科建模和实地观察以及户外，讲座和实验室教育活动的综合计划来解决与其预测相关的不确定性。该项目将重点关注密歇根州，那里的一些观测指标已经显示出与气候变暖相一致的趋势，包括冬季缩短，年平均气温升高以及强降水事件发生频率增加。在该项目的研究部分，一些案例研究将在整个国家沿着东南？北-西北气候、水文和农业活动梯度。除了综合大量现有数据集之外，还将对气候强迫和流态特征进行现场监测，为模式评估提供数据。世界气候研究计划的耦合模式相互比较项目的气候变化预测的多模式集合将使用？化石密集型？?中间？，然后呢？低级别的未来二氧化碳排放情景（根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的定义）。推断的概率信息将用于评估气候变化对流域系统的影响，为早期（2010年？2039年），中期（2040年？2069年）和世纪末（2070年？2099）期间。具体而言，水文和水动力制度的基本特征的变化将调查的情况下，研究流域使用多尺度，基于物理的框架，流域表面/地下过程和流动流体动力学建模，集成通过嵌套动力学建模的能力。将量化与气候预测偏差和流域模型不准确性相关的总不确定性。一个广泛的数据集的缩小规模的气候预测和水文和水动力模型的输出在这项研究中产生的将提供一个全面的信息量所需的气候变化补偿和缓解规划。该项目的推广部分将实施教育活动，重点是加强标题I学校七年级学生的科学课程，并提高对人类活动对流域过程的影响的认识。为期一周的暑期学校的教育活动的重点将放在密歇根州、威斯康星州和明尼苏达州部落的美国土著青年学生中服务不足和代表性不足的群体。通过研究和推广计划的整合，该项目将有利于水文科学界，中学，大学生和研究生。全球气候模型是用来探索地球如何？在人类活动的不同情景下，未来的气候将发生变化。这些模型的结果用于气候影响研究。这些研究的典型应用涉及数百至数千平方英里区域的大尺度水文变量;它们很少能够提供相关的不确定性;目前，还没有研究能够解决未来对水流动力学特性或洪泛区淹没的影响。然而，大多数气候变化补偿和减缓战略需要与人类活动和生态系统服务规模相关的信息，这些信息通常侧重于流域、溪流、农田等。它们还需要对与未来预测相关的不确定性进行估计，以便在气候预测不准确的情况下做出更明智的决策。为了满足这些社会需求，这项研究将以多模式预测的形式利用最大限度的现有气候变化信息，并制定推断气候变化预测不确定性的方法。与以往的研究相比，该项目将综合一系列水文/水动力模型和观测数据，以创建通过整个流域系统传播气候信号信息的能力：从源头（源）地区到河流通道，以及流量特征的细节。为了确保模型应用问题得到具体解决，研究结果产生实际影响，将在密歇根州各地开展案例研究。此外，该CAREER项目将整合教育活动，重点是加强服务不足/代表性不足的学生群体（低收入家庭和美洲原住民）的科学课程计划，旨在增强他们的思维方式，成为未来的领导者，并将科学和工程作为他们的职业选择