WSC Category 3: Propogating Climate-Driven Changes in Hydrologic Processes and Ecosystem Functions across Extreme Biophysical and Anthropogenic Gradients

WSC 第 3 类：在极端生物物理和人为梯度范围内传播气候驱动的水文过程和生态系统功能变化

• 批准号: 1204841
• 负责人: Thomas Harmon
• 金额: $ 149.55万
• 依托单位: University of California - Merced
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1204841&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Propogating; Climate; Driven

1204841HarmonIn many arid and semi-arid regions of the world, including much of Western U.S., water resources management plans are predicated on the assumption that the snow pack holds the majority of the water, gradually melting to replenish the reservoirs as their supplies are metered out to satisfy human water and power demands, and environmental flow mandates. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California, the remote and sparsely populated mountain range providing the water and power for millions of people. While it is known that this mountain range's steep gradients in elevation, soils and vegetation render it extremely sensitive to climate change, the connection between the underlying hydrologic processes and the water sustainability issues in these regions is not well understood. This project will quantify the effect of a range of documented climate change scenarios on snow melt, runoff, high elevation reservoir operation (hydropower, flood control and recreation) and low elevation multi-purpose reservoir operation (irrigation, flood control, environmental flows and recreation). The San Joaquin River Basin will serve as the prototype for this study, the outcomes of which will be transferrable to other snowpack-controlled river basins. The scientific goal of the proposed project is to connect our emerging process-level understanding of climatic influences on mountain hydrologic processes and resulting changes to the stream response to the ecosystems services sustained by water but dictated by human values and policies. The hypothesis is that changing climate variability in the semi-arid western U.S., and the resulting shift toward an earlier annual runoff in snow-dominated watersheds will create a ripple effect, propagating down the mountain front to force human responses in the form of changes to high elevation hydropower and lowland water supply reservoir operations, and therefore changes to lowland aquatic and riparian ecosystem functions. We will test this hypothesis using current hydrologic process simulation models integrate existing data from the NSF Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory, and from state (California Department of Water Resources) and federal agencies (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service). These simulation models will be driven by archival Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs (temperature, precipitation) for the years 2010 - 2099.This project will clarify the connection between likely climate change scenarios, stream flows, reservoir storage and releases, and groundwater storage and extractions for snow-dependent river basins. Furthermore, through engagement with key river basin stakeholders, the project will result in practical guidelines to how best to adapt policy to the changing hydrologic conditions in order to sustain water supply, energy and aquatic ecosystem needs in the future. The San Joaquin River basin was selected as the subject of study because it embodies water and sustainability issues in the semi-arid West given (1) its vulnerability to climatic variation due to its reliance on snow pack and a network of reservoirs for hydropower, flood control, and water supply; and (2) its massive lowland river salmon restoration effort, which was initiated in Fall 2009.

1204841HARMONIN在包括美国大部分地区在内的世界上许多干旱和半干旱地区，水资源管理计划的基础是假设雪堆拥有大部分水，逐渐融化，以补充储层，因为它们的供应被销售以满足人类水和电力需求以及环境需求以及环境流动性的要求。 在加利福尼亚州内华达山脉的山脉山脉，这是遥远而稀疏的山脉，为数百万人提供水和力量，这一点没有什么比这更明显的了。 尽管众所周知，该山脉在海拔地区的陡峭梯度，土壤和植被对气候变化极为敏感，但这些地区的基本水文过程与水可持续性问题之间的联系尚不清楚。 该项目将量化一系列有记录的气候变化方案对雪融化，径流，高海拔储层运营（水力发电，防洪和娱乐）的影响以及低海拔多功能储层（灌溉，洪水控制，环境控制，环境流和休闲）。 圣华金河盆地将作为这项研究的原型，其结果将转移到其他积雪控制的河流盆地。 拟议项目的科学目标是将我们对气候对山水水文过程的影响的新兴过程级别的理解联系起来，并将其导致对水的河流响应的变化，但由水维持的生态系统服务，但由人类价值和政策决定。 The hypothesis is that changing climate variability in the semi-arid western U.S., and the resulting shift toward an earlier annual runoff in snow-dominated watersheds will create a ripple effect, propagating down the mountain front to force human responses in the form of changes to high elevation hydropower and lowland water supply reservoir operations, and therefore changes to lowland aquatic and riparian ecosystem functions. 我们将使用当前的水文过程模拟模型来检验这一假设，该模型整合了NSF Southern Sierra关键区天文台以及州（加利福尼亚州水资源部）和联邦机构（美国填海，美国鱼类和野生动物服务局）的现有数据。 这些仿真模型将由2010年至2099年的档案全球气候模型（GCM）输出（温度，降水）驱动。此项目将阐明可能气候变化方案，溪流流，储层存储和释放储量，释放，地下水存储以及依赖雪依赖河流的地下水的储存和地下水的储存和提取之间的联系。 此外，通过与关键河流利益相关者的参与，该项目将制定实用的准则，以最好地适应不断变化的水文条件，以维持未来的供水，能源和水生生态系统的需求。 圣华金河盆地被选为研究主题，因为它在（1）由于依赖雪堆和用于水力发电，洪水控制和供水的水库网络而体现了半干旱西部的水和可持续性问题； （2）其大规模的低地河鲑鱼修复工作，该工作于2009年秋季开始。