Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: A cross-site comparison of salt marsh persistence in response to sea-level rise and feedbacks from social adaptations

沿海 SEES 合作研究：盐沼持久性对海平面上升的响应和社会适应反馈的跨地点比较

• 批准号: 1426308
• 负责人: Anne Giblin
• 金额: $ 30.9万
• 依托单位: Marine Biological Laboratory
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1426308&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Coastal; SEES; Collaborative; Research; cross

Nearly half of the world's population lives within 100 km of the coast, the area ranked as the most vulnerable to climate-driven sea-level rise (SLR). Projected rates of accelerated SLR are expected to cause massive changes that would transform both the ecological and social dynamics of low-lying coastal areas. It is thus essential to improve understanding of the sustainability of coupled coastal human-environment systems in the face of SLR. Salt marshes are intertidal habitats that provide a buffer for coastal communities to SLR and are also valued for many other ecosystem services, including wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, aesthetics, and tourism. They are highly dynamic systems that have kept pace with changes in sea level over millennia. However, projected rates of SLR and increased human modification of coastal watersheds and shorelines may push marshes past a tipping point beyond which they are lost. Developing realistic scenarios of marsh vulnerability demands an integrated approach to understanding the feedbacks between the biophysical and social factors that influence the persistence of marshes and their supporting functions. This project will examine the comparative vulnerability of salt marshes to SLR in three U.S. Atlantic coastal sites that vary with respect to sediment supply, tidal range and human impacts. The research team will also address how feedbacks from potential adaptations influence marsh vulnerability, associated economic benefits and costs, and practical management decisions. Additional broader impacts include incorporating research results into curriculum used at local schools, an on-line cross-disciplinary graduate course, and on-going teacher-training programs, as well as training one postdoctoral researcher, four graduate students, and eight undergraduate researchers. This project is supported as part of the National Science Foundation's Coastal Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability program - Coastal SEES.This project leverages the long-term data, experiments and modeling tools at three Atlantic Coast Long-Term Ecological Research sites (in MA, VA, GA), and addresses the broad interdisciplinary question "How will feedbacks between marsh response to SLR and human adaptation responses to potential marsh loss affect the overall sustainability of the combined socio-ecological systems?" The goals of the project are to understand: 1) how marsh vulnerability to current and projected SLR, with and without adaptation actions, compares across biogeographic provinces and a range of biophysical and social drivers; and 2) which marsh protection actions local stakeholder groups favor, and the broader sustainability and economic value implications of feasible adaptation options. The biophysical research uses historical trends, "point" and spatial models to determine threshold and long-term responses of marshes to SLR. Social responses to marsh vulnerability are integrated with biophysical models through future scenario planning with stakeholders, economic valuation of marsh adaptation options, and focus groups that place the combined project results within a concrete policy planning context to assess how marshes fit into the larger view of coastal socio-ecological sustainability. This integrated approach at multiple sites along gradients of both environmental and human drivers will allow for general conclusions to be made about human-natural system interactions and sustainability that can be broadly applicable to other coastal systems.

世界上将近一半的人口居住在海岸100公里以内，该地区最容易受到气候驱动的海平面上升（SLR）。预计加速SLR的预计速率有望引起巨大的变化，这将改变低洼沿海地区的生态和社会动态。因此，在面对SLR的情况下，提高对沿海沿海人类环境系统的可持续性的理解至关重要。盐沼是潮间带的栖息地，可为沿海社区提供缓冲SLR的缓冲，并且还被许多其他生态系统服务所重视，包括野生动植物栖息地，营养循环，碳固执，美学和旅游业。它们是高度动态的系统，与数千年的海平面变化保持同步。但是，预计SLR的速度和人类对沿海流域和海岸线的改造的增加可能会将沼泽推向损失的转折点。开发沼泽脆弱性的现实情景需要一种综合方法来理解影响沼泽持续性及其支持功能的生物物理和社会因素之间的反馈。该项目将研究盐沼对SLR的比较脆弱性在美国三个大西洋沿海地区，这些地点随着沉积物供应，潮汐范围和人类影响而有所不同。研究团队还将解决潜在适应的反馈如何影响沼泽脆弱性，相关的经济利益和成本以及实际管理决策。其他更广泛的影响包括将研究结果纳入当地学校使用的课程，在线跨学科研究生课程以及正在进行的教师培训课程，以及培训一名博士后研究员，四名研究生和八名本科研究人员。该项目是国家科学基金会沿海科学，工程和可持续性计划的一部分 - 沿海地区看到的。该项目利用了三个大西洋沿岸的长期生态研究站点（MA，VA，VA）的长期数据，实验和建模工具的长期数据，实验和建模工具，并解决了跨学科损失之间的反馈和人类对人类的整体响应之间的反馈。社会生态系统？”该项目的目标是理解：1）沼泽对当前和预计的SLR的脆弱性如何，有或没有适应性行动，在生物地理省进行了比较以及一系列的生物物理和社会驱动因素； 2）当地利益相关者群体哪些沼泽保护行动以及可行适应方案的更广泛的可持续性和经济价值影响。生物物理研究使用历史趋势，“点”和空间模型来确定沼泽对SLR的阈值和长期响应。通过未来的情景计划与利益相关者，沼泽适应选择的经济估值以及将合并的项目结果置于具体的政策计划环境中，以评估Marshes如何适应沿海社会生态可持续性的更大观点，将社会对沼泽脆弱性的反应与生物物理模型融为一体。这种沿环境驱动因素和人类驱动因素梯度的多个地点的综合方法将允许对人类天然系统的相互作用和可持续性得出一般结论，这可以广泛适用于其他沿海系统。