CNH-L: Science-Driven, Community-Based Approach to Reducing Glacier Lake Outburst Flood Risks

CNH-L：以科学为驱动、以社区为基础的方法来减少冰川湖溃决洪水风险

• 批准号: 1516912
• 负责人: Daene McKinney
• 金额: $ 149.15万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-01 至 2019-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1516912&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Science; Driven; Community; Based

Over the past several decades, hundreds of glaciers in mountainous regions have been melting, leaving behind new glacier lakes holding millions of cubic meters of water. Usually contained by dams of loose boulders and soil, these lakes present a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). As the number and extent of these lakes grows, so does the flood risk for communities downstream of them, potentially leading to extensive loss of lives and severe damage to transport infrastructure, hydroelectric power facilities and agriculture. This project will look at the factors that lead to GLOFs, and the measures that local populations can take to adapt to this increasing threat. The research will capture unique knowledge of glacial lakes and the communities that live near them, sharing this with researchers and decision makers challenged by these problems in the U.S. and elsewhere. The interdisciplinary research approach will contribute to the development of a new generation of scientists in the area of coupled natural and human systems of glacier-dominated mountain systems. It will lead to improved understanding and management of risks, and of designs that reduce flood risk related to these systems. The goals of the proposed research are to: (1) Understand natural system dynamics through an analysis of the impacts of climate change on glacial lakes, (2) Understand the human system dynamics through the strengthening of community resiliency to glacial lake hazards by developing community-driven glacial lake risk reduction systems, (3) Understand how the natural system affects the human system through the assessment of local ecological knowledge and understanding of hydrological resources and the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to glacial lake outburst flood hazard, and (4) Understand how the human system affects the natural system through the design and modeling of community-driven solutions to analyze the reduction of flood risk and the evolution of glacial lakes. The project will integrate in situ physical and societal observations with geospatial analyses, intensive glacial hydrology and outburst flood modeling, key respondents interviews, and community level mappings and focus groups. The project will assess outburst flood-related processes that include glacier hydrology, river flow, hydraulics, and sediment/debris transport models. These natural system impacts will be integrated with the human science aspects to evaluate socio-economic impacts of potential outburst flood events on communities, households, and ecotourism.

在过去的几十年里，山区的数百个冰川正在融化，留下了新的冰川湖，拥有数百万立方米的水。这些湖泊通常由松散的巨石和土壤组成的大坝所控制，存在冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOFs）的风险。随着这些湖泊的数量和范围不断扩大，其下游社区面临的洪水风险也在增加，可能导致大量生命损失，并严重破坏交通基础设施、水力发电设施和农业。该项目将研究导致GLOFs的因素，以及当地居民可以采取的措施来适应这一日益严重的威胁。这项研究将捕捉冰川湖泊及其附近社区的独特知识，与美国和其他地方受到这些问题挑战的研究人员和决策者分享。跨学科研究方法将有助于在冰川主导的山区系统的自然和人类系统耦合领域培养新一代科学家。 这将导致更好地理解和管理风险，以及减少与这些系统有关的洪水风险的设计。拟议研究的目标是：（1）通过分析气候变化对冰湖的影响，了解自然系统动态;（2）通过开发社区驱动的冰湖风险降低系统，加强社区对冰湖灾害的复原力，了解人类系统动态;（3）通过评估当地生态知识和了解水文资源以及社会系统的脆弱性，了解自然系统如何影响人类系统。生态系统对冰湖溃决洪水灾害的影响;（4）通过社区驱动解决方案的设计和建模，了解人类系统如何影响自然系统，以分析洪水风险的降低和冰湖的演变。该项目将把实地物理和社会观测与地理空间分析、密集的冰川水文学和突发洪水建模、主要受访者访谈、社区层面的测绘和重点小组相结合。该项目将评估突发洪水相关过程，包括冰川水文学、河流流量、水力学和沉积物/碎片运输模型。 这些自然系统的影响将与人类科学方面相结合，以评估潜在的突发洪水事件对社区，家庭和生态旅游的社会经济影响。