CAREER: Advancing Multi-Hazard Assessment and Risk-Based Design for Offshore Wind Energy Technology

海上风能是一种可再生能源，在许多主要的人口中心都很容易获得，但目前收集海上风能的成本高于传统能源。这项教师早期职业发展（Career）项目的研究目标是通过(1)对影响海上风力发电场系统级性能的多种海上灾害的时空相互作用的更清晰的理解和建模，以降低保险和融资成本，(2)计算新的系统级性能指标，从而提高知识水平，从而降低海上风能的成本。(3)浅水波浪建模的进步，以减轻目前对过于保守的设计方法的依赖。该项目的教育目标是利用新英格兰最先进的海上风力主题站点的现场经验，激励高中生追求科学，工程，数学和技术职业，并将多危害评估和设计的知识传授给公众，其他研究人员和实践工程社区。本项目将通过对元模型（替代模型）的根本性改进来实现研究目标，以克服以前在空间分布基础设施的多危害评估背景下限制此类模型影响的限制。具体而言，将开发新的元模型，以包括几个重要特征，例如时空变化的危害，输入和输出向量的高维性，通过量化模型预测中与测量相比的事件间和事件内不确定性来明确计算模型的充分性，以及多危害和系统/结构元模型的耦合。该研究还将探索创新模型，以克服非线性，高度倾斜的浅水波浪及其相关的水动力载荷（包括破碎波）建模的重要缺陷。该研究将综合这些进展，并生成系统级性能指标，为设计海上风电场提供一个根本不同的范例。该项目将利用与州、市、学术和行业组织的合作关系。考虑到国家在多灾害分析和基础设施系统弹性方面的需求，以及元建模在土木工程和其他领域的应用潜力，预计研究成果将对海上风电行业以外的领域产生广泛影响。

Offshore wind energy is a resource of renewable energy that is conveniently accessible to many major population centers, but harvesting offshore wind energy currently costs more than traditional sources. The research goal of this Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) Program grant is to advance knowledge that can lead to reduction in the cost of offshore wind energy through (1) a much sharper understanding and modeling of the spatio-temporal interaction of multiple offshore hazards that impact the system-level performance of offshore wind energy farms to reduce insurance and financing costs, (2) the calculation of novel system-level performance metrics, and (3) the advancement of shallow water wave modeling to mitigate the current reliance on overly conservative design methods. The educational goals of this project are to leverage field experiences at state-of-the-art offshore wind-themed sites in New England to inspire high school students to pursue science, engineering, mathematics, and technology careers and to transfer knowledge of multi-hazard assessment and design to the public, other researchers, and the practicing engineering community.This project will achieve the research goal through fundamental advancements to metamodels (surrogate models) to overcome restrictions that have previously limited the impact of such models in the context of multi-hazard assessment of spatially-distributed infrastructure. Specifically, novel metamodels will be developed to include several important features, such as spatio-temporally varying hazards, high-dimensionality of the input and output vectors, explicit accounting of model adequacy by quantifying inter- and intra-event uncertainty in the model predictions compared to measurements, and a coupling of multi-hazard and system/structural metamodels. The research will also explore innovative models that overcome important deficiencies in the modeling of nonlinear, highly skewed shallow water waves and their associated hydrodynamic loads, including breaking waves. The research will synthesize these advances and generate system-level performance metrics that will provide a fundamentally different paradigm for designing offshore wind farms. The project will leverage partnerships with state, city, academic, and industry organizations. The research outcomes are expected to have broad impact beyond the offshore wind industry, given the national needs in multi-hazard analysis and infrastructure system resilience, and the potential of metamodeling applications in civil engineering and other fields.