Collaborative Research: Reliability-based Hurricane Risk Assessment for Offshore Wind Farms

这项合作研究拨款为一个基础研究项目提供资金，该项目旨在评估大西洋风力发电场的飓风相关风险，并设计OWT支撑结构的抗飓风能力，以克服海上风能开发的障碍。该研究计划建立在与飓风多发的墨西哥湾的石油和天然气平台开发以及北部和波罗的海的风能开发相关的知识基础上。该项目包括四项综合研究任务：(1)开发大西洋海岸飓风灾害概率建模框架；(2)OWT支持结构的脆弱性分析框架，包括原型支持结构的案例研究；(3)单个涡轮机脆弱性与风电场可靠性之间的关系；以及(4)提高OWT支持结构对组合、飓风诱导、风浪荷载的稳健性的新颖设计细节。一个垂直整合的合作研究团队，跨越两所高等院校的本科生到全职教授水平，以及一个外展项目，包括与马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校的离岸风能IGERT项目的合作伙伴关系，以及通过东北大学STEM教育中心为波士顿的高中年轻人提供指导，承诺丰富学生参与者的经验，并通过与多学科教员团队的跨学科互动来加强这个项目。根据国家可再生能源实验室的数据，要实现到2030年可再生能源占总能源需求的20%的国家目标，应该包括安装54千兆瓦的海上风能发电。这反过来又需要从转型上消除海上风能开发的障碍。美国国家科学院最近的一份报告将大西洋风力发电场在飓风面前的脆弱性确定为这样一个障碍，该项目解决了这个障碍的工程方面。大西洋风电场在运营期间遭遇飓风的可能性增加了与风电场性能相关的不确定性，从而增加了相关的融资和保险成本，从而增加了能源成本。这一合作研究项目侧重于海上风力涡轮机(OWT)结构，这些结构是为大西洋海岸提议的典型结构，因此将暴露在极端的风和海浪载荷下。该项目以地震工程领域现有的广泛知识为基础，包括概率风险分析、基于性能的设计概念和非线性动态建模，是该项目的关键组成部分。与业界的伙伴关系将把研究方向集中在风能和灾难风险行业的具体需求上。

This collaborative research grant provides funding for a program of fundamental research into the assessment of hurricane-associated risk to Atlantic wind farms and hurricane resistant design of OWT support structures to overcome barriers to offshore wind energy development. The research program builds upon the bodies of knowledge associated with oil and gas platform development in the hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico and wind energy development in the North and Baltic Seas. The project comprises four integrated research tasks: (1) the development of a probabilistic hurricane hazard modeling framework for the Atlantic coast; (2) a fragility analysis framework for OWT support structures including case studies of prototype support structures; (3) relationships between individual turbine fragility and wind farm reliability; and (4) novel design details for improving the robustness of OWT support structures to combined, hurricane induced, wind and wave loading. A vertically integrated, collaborative research team spanning from the undergraduate to full professor levels across two institutions of higher learning and a program of outreach including partnership with the Offshore Wind Energy IGERT program at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst and mentorship to high school youth in Boston through the Northeastern University Center for STEM Education promises to enrich the experience of student participants and to enhance this project through interdisciplinary interactions with the multidisciplinary faculty team.Meeting the national goal of generating 20 percent of total energy needs from renewable sources by 2030 should, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, include the installation of 54 GW of electricity generated from offshore wind. This, in turn, requires the transformational removal of barriers to offshore wind energy development. A recent U.S. National Academies report has identified the vulnerability of Atlantic wind farms to hurricanes as such a barrier, and this project addresses the engineering aspects of this barrier. The likelihood of Atlantic wind farms encountering hurricanes during their operational life adds to the cost of energy by increasing uncertainty associated with wind farm performance and therefore the associated financing and insurance costs. This collaborative research project focuses on offshore wind turbine (OWT) structures that are typical of those proposed for the Atlantic coast and that will therefore be exposed to extreme wind and wave loads. Probabilistic hurricane hazard modeling and fragility analysis of OWTs and development of recommendations for increased structural robustness are key components of this project, which builds upon the extensive knowledge available within the field of seismic engineering, including probabilistic hazard analysis, performance-based design concepts and non-linear dynamic modeling. Partnerships with industry will focus the direction of research to the specific needs of the wind energy and catastrophe risk industries.