NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: ARC-NAV: Arctic Robust Communities-Navigating Adaptation to Variability

航行新北极(NNA)是NSF的十大想法之一。NNA项目解决了快速变化的北极地区汇聚的科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大区域和全球的经济、安全和韧性提供信息。NNA增强了新的研究伙伴关系，从地方到国际范围，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了共同生产的知识。这个奖项实现了这一目标的一部分。北极变暖的平均速度是地球其他地区的两倍，这导致了海冰的重大变化，当地社区必须对此做出反应。贝林贾是包括美国和俄罗斯领土在内的北极地区，预计在下个世纪将经历海冰条件变化最大的一些地区。这个项目关注的问题是：我们如何设计更好、更灵活的治理和基础设施，以适应不断变化的北极条件？为了回答这个问题，该小组正在采取趋同的方法来预测北冰洋海冰环境的潜在变化以及这些变化对社会和生态系统的影响，并确定增强对这些影响的适应能力的战略。该项目在整个研究过程中充分吸收北极的地方和土著社区和决策者参与，以生成与当地社区相关的关于海冰变化关键热点的信息和模型。这将有助于建设地方和区域治理能力，并使研究人员能够对社区预测变化的稳健性进行建模和预测。地方和土著社区与科学家之间的共同知识生产，以及跨学科和跨国界的合作研究，将用于解决四个关键研究问题：1)人们如何理解和感知不断变化的海冰，以及他们如何适应海冰条件的变化？2)当前海冰变化的关键热点在哪里，随着环境和社区的变化，它们未来将在哪里？3)该地区的政府和非政府组织将如何应对不断变化的海冰状况，并与社区互动，以应对其不断变化的需求？以及4)现有的和潜在的社会生态系统的哪些特征对于预测海冰的变化是健壮的或脆弱的？该项目将通过扎根的民族志和文化共识分析，记录关于社区之间和社区内部的生物地球物理变化和相关生计和经济机会/成本的各种叙述和重大政策挑战。卫星数据将用于突出海冰变化的“热点”，并为社区和利益攸关方讨论“变化”提供起点。与治理行为者的面谈将确定优先事项和应对措施，并在空间上形成明确的政策网络。多主体模型将把这些分析联系起来，并被用来探索问题的多样性、变化的预测以及社区及其所依赖的基础设施系统的脆弱性或健壮性。通过这项研究，该项目将对社区和机构对变化的反应、一种趋势中空间和时间变异性的影响以及可应用于其他地区的稳健性-脆弱性权衡产生新的理解，这些权衡可以应用于其他地区在全球范围内的人类学转型。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.The Arctic is warming on average twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, which is leading to significant changes in sea ice to which local communities must respond. Beringia, a region of the Arctic encompassing US and Russian territory, is expected to experience some of the highest variability in sea ice conditions in the coming century. This project focuses on the question: how do we design better and more flexible governance and infrastructure to adapt to changing Arctic conditions? To answer this question, the team is taking a convergence approach to forecast potential changes in the Arctic sea ice environment and the impacts on social and ecological systems resulting from those changes and identify adaptive strategies to enhance resilience to those impacts. The project fully engages local and Indigenous communities and decision makers in the Arctic throughout the research process to generate information and models about critical hot spots of sea ice change relevant to local communities. This will help build local and regional governance capacity and allow the researchers to model and predict the robustness of communities to forecast changes.Coproduction of knowledge between local and Indigenous communities and scientists, and collaborative research across disciplinary and national boundaries, will be used to address four key research questions: 1) How do people understand and perceive changing sea ice, and how do they adapt to variability in ice conditions? 2) Where are the current critical hot spots of variability in sea ice, and where will they be in the future as the environment and communities change? 3) How will governmental and non-governmental organizations in the region navigate changing sea ice conditions and interact with communities to respond to their changing needs? and 4) What features of the existing, and potential, social-ecological systems are robust/fragile to forecast changes in sea ice? This project will document diverse narratives and critical policy challenges around biogeophysical changes and associated livelihood and economic opportunities/costs between and within communities through grounded ethnography and cultural consensus analysis. Satellite data will be used to highlight "hot spots" of sea ice variability and provide a starting point for community and stakeholders' discussions of "change". Interviews with governance actors will identify priorities and responses and generate spatially explicit policy networks. A multi-agent model will link these analyses and be utilized to explore the diversity of issues, projections of change, and fragility or robustness of communities and the infrastructure systems they rely on. Through this research, the project will derive new understandings of community and institutional responses to change, the impacts of spatial and temporal variability within a trend, and robustness-fragility trade-offs that can be applied to other regions as they navigate transitions around the globe in the Anthropocene.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.