Co-evolution of Anthropogenic Stressors and Regional Urban Hydroclimate through Multiscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions

该项目研究城市地区的人类活动如何通过陆地-大气相互作用与区域水文气候相互作用。在过去的几十年里，人类活动正在急剧改变地球系统，以前所未有的速度和规模引起全球变化。在这些变化中，城市化已成为最不可逆和人类主导的形式。本研究量化了城市人类活动引起的热、湿和温室气体的排放和输送，并考察了它们与区域水文气象变化的相互作用。了解由于未来城市发展而出现的水文气候模式可以提高城市环境建模的预测技能，并且对城市规划者，决策者和公众具有广泛的兴趣。本项目通过定期会议、气候说明会和年度研讨会，积极吸引利益相关者，特别是当地城市的利益相关者参与项目评估和外联活动。本项目招收一名研究生从事研究、教育和推广活动。此外，该项目还通过暑期研究项目对参与的大学预科和本科生进行教育，培养他们对科学、技术、工程和数学（STEM）的兴趣。研究活动集中在美国城市产生的人为动力特征及其与区域水文气象的共同演变，以凤凰城大都会为具体研究区域。具体研究目标包括：(1)量化人口动态、人为热、人为湿、人为CO2排放及其非线性相互作用；(2)将人为动态纳入新的城市建模系统；(3)对研究区城市土地利用与未来气候变化进行情景分析。该项目的主要科学成果包括一个包含参数化人为压力源的新的城市地表模型，以及提高美国城市地区的数值天气预报技能。该项目的情景研究涵盖了广泛的城市扩张和气候变化故事线，为研究人员和城市规划者寻找解决紧迫城市环境问题的可持续解决方案提供了信息。该项目还有助于公众更好地为未来城市的气候敏感型发展做好准备。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project investigates how human activities in urban areas interact with regional hydroclimate via land-atmosphere interactions. Over past decades, human activities are drastically transforming the Earth system, giving rise to global changes at unparalleled rates and scales. Among these changes, urbanization has emerged as the most irreversible and human-dominated form. This study quantifies the emission and transport of heat, moisture, and greenhouse gases due to human activities in cities and examines their interplay with changes in regional hydrometeorology. Understanding the emergent hydroclimatic patterns due to future development of cities leads to improved predictive skills of urban environmental modeling, and is of broad interest for city planners, policy makers, and the general public. This project actively engages stakeholders, especially those from local cities, for project evaluation and outreach activities through regular meetings, climate briefings, and annual workshops. This project recruits one graduate student in research, education and outreach activities. In addition, this project contributes to the education of participating pre-college and undergraduate students via summer research programs to cultivate their interest in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM). The research activities focus on characterizing anthropogenic dynamics arising in U.S. cities and its co-evolution with regional hydrometeorology, using Phoenix Metropolitan as a specific study area. Specific research objectives include: (1) quantify population dynamics, anthropogenic heat, moisture, CO2 emission, and their nonlinear interactions, (2) incorporate anthropogenic dynamics into a new urban modeling system; (3) perform scenario analysis of urban land use and future climate changes in the study area. The major scientific outcomes of this project include a new urban land surface model incorporating the parameterization anthropogenic stressors, and improved skill of numerical weather prediction over U.S. urban areas. The scenario study in this project that embraces a wide spectrum of urban expansion and climate change storylines is informative to researchers and urban planners in finding sustainable solutions to pressing urban environmental issues. The project also helps to better prepare the general public for climate-sensitive development of future cities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.