Model-based research for the risk prediction of silage bale deterioration suffered from aerobic stress

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High quality of feeding materials is the basis of achieving high productivity of milking cows and high nutrition efficiency. Silage reheating aerobic-induced is one of the main causes for energy and nutrition losses on dairy farms. In the worst case, the feeding material can be totally deteriorated. The risk of silage reheating aerobic-induced could be quite high when the plastic cover of silage is damaged during the storage phase or when silage exposes itself to air before feeding. The temperature Variation of silage due to the metabolism of microorganism is influenced by various factors (e. g. the substrate, the bulk density and the water content). To predict the silage temperature distribution and dynamics in silage, some analytical models of coupled heat, oxygen and moisture transport with partial differential equations (PDE) in 2D space have been presented. The chemical and microbial reactions that influence the temperature have been outlined in the relevant literatures. However, limited studies focus on validating these models for estimating the silage mass and energy losses and for predicting risk of silage deterioration. The presented proposal will aim at these goals for grass and alfalfa silage materials through a long-term established Sino-German research group. Preliminary study has been conducted with round bale silage on three aspects: (i) bulk density and moisture distribution in 2D and 3D map; (ii) temperature progress and distribution in 2D map in the case of being punctured with one or two holes; (iii) model-based simulation in the case of being punctured with one or two points. For the study proposed in further, a PDE system with three key parameters (temperature, oxygen concentration and moisture content) will be treated. The experimental study will start with grass and alfalfa sealed in bottle/ bucket (first year), grass packed as around bale (second year), alfalfa packed as bale (third year). The expected achievements include high-level publications with impact factors, model-based software and case application, young scientist promotion in forage research area for both sides and patent.Keywords: temperature, bale silage, cover damage, aerobic deterioration, reheating models, risk prediction.