Model-based research for the risk prediction of silage bale deterioration suffered from aerobic stress

有氧胁迫下青贮饲料劣化风险预测的模型研究

• 批准号: 248390147
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Wolfgang Büscher
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Landtechnik (ILT)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2012-12-31 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/248390147?language=en
• 关键词: Model; based; research; risk; prediction

High quality of feeding materials is the basis of achieving high productivity of milking cows and high nutrition efficiency. Silage reheating aerobic-induced is one of the main causes for energy and nutrition losses on dairy farms. In the worst case, the feeding material can be totally deteriorated. The risk of silage reheating aerobic-induced could be quite high when the plastic cover of silage is damaged during the storage phase or when silage exposes itself to air before feeding. The temperature Variation of silage due to the metabolism of microorganism is influenced by various factors (e. g. the substrate, the bulk density and the water content). To predict the silage temperature distribution and dynamics in silage, some analytical models of coupled heat, oxygen and moisture transport with partial differential equations (PDE) in 2D space have been presented. The chemical and microbial reactions that influence the temperature have been outlined in the relevant literatures. However, limited studies focus on validating these models for estimating the silage mass and energy losses and for predicting risk of silage deterioration. The presented proposal will aim at these goals for grass and alfalfa silage materials through a long-term established Sino-German research group. Preliminary study has been conducted with round bale silage on three aspects: (i) bulk density and moisture distribution in 2D and 3D map; (ii) temperature progress and distribution in 2D map in the case of being punctured with one or two holes; (iii) model-based simulation in the case of being punctured with one or two points. For the study proposed in further, a PDE system with three key parameters (temperature, oxygen concentration and moisture content) will be treated. The experimental study will start with grass and alfalfa sealed in bottle/ bucket (first year), grass packed as around bale (second year), alfalfa packed as bale (third year). The expected achievements include high-level publications with impact factors, model-based software and case application, young scientist promotion in forage research area for both sides and patent.Keywords: temperature, bale silage, cover damage, aerobic deterioration, reheating models, risk prediction.

高质量的饲料是实现奶牛高产和高营养效率的基础。青贮复热是奶牛场能量和营养损失的主要原因之一。在最坏的情况下，进料可能完全变质。当青贮饲料的塑料覆盖物在储存阶段被损坏或青贮饲料在饲喂前暴露于空气中时，青贮饲料再加热有氧诱导的风险可能相当高。由于微生物的代谢作用，青贮料的温度变化受多种因素的影响（如：G.基材、堆积密度和水含量）。为了预测青贮饲料中的温度分布和动态，提出了一些在二维空间中的偏微分方程（PDE）的热、氧和水分耦合传输的分析模型。影响温度的化学和微生物反应已在相关文献中概述。然而，有限的研究集中在验证这些模型估计青贮饲料质量和能量损失，并预测风险青贮饲料恶化。提出的提案将通过长期建立的中德研究小组来实现草和苜蓿青贮材料的这些目标。以圆包青贮饲料为研究对象，从3个方面进行了初步研究：（1）二维和三维图中的容重和水分分布;（2）单点和双点穿孔情况下的二维图中的温度变化和分布;（3）单点和双点穿孔情况下的基于模型的模拟。对于进一步提出的研究，将处理具有三个关键参数（温度、氧气浓度和水分含量）的PDE系统。实验研究将从密封在瓶/桶中的草和苜蓿（第一年）、打包成捆的草（第二年）、打包成捆的苜蓿（第三年）开始。预期成果包括含影响因子的高水平出版物、基于模型的软件和案例应用、双方饲料研究领域青年科学家推广和专利。关键词：温度、草捆青贮、覆盖物损坏、好氧变质、再加热模型、风险预测。