Constraints, Rigidity, and Risk in Global Supply Chains

全球供应链的约束、刚性和风险

• 批准号: 2315629
• 负责人: Robert Johnson
• 金额: $ 51.38万
• 依托单位: University of Notre Dame
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-01 至 2026-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2315629&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Constraints; Rigidity; Risk; Global; Supply

Recent major shocks (e.g., US-China tariff increases and the COVID-19 pandemic) have reverberated through global supply chains. As a result, there is growing concern that dependence on foreign inputs exposes firms, and the macro-economy more broadly, to heightened risks. For example, supply chain disruptions have been widely blamed for the resurgence of inflation. Moreover, recent policy reforms have encouraged reshoring of manufacturing production. This project examines how key microeconomic features of input sourcing, including capacity constraints, sunk investments, and decision making under uncertainty, give rise to macroeconomic risks. The findings will enable policymakers to evaluate supply chain risks more accurately and design policies to manage those risks.In the first part of the project, the researchers will study how occasionally binding capacity constraints in the supply chain, and shocks to them, shape inflation. When domestic or foreign firms exhaust their capacity, they have an incentive to raise their price, by increasing the markup over marginal cost. In the aggregate, binding constraints shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves, like cost-push shocks in reduced form, and thus fuel inflation. Building this idea into a modern multisector, open economy, New Keynesian model, the project applies the framework to interpret recent US data and study optimal monetary policy responses to supply chain disruptions. In the second part of the project, the researchers investigate how firms invest in their supply chain capacity, and how those investments matter for the propagation of macroeconomic shocks. The project develops a framework in which firms undertake irreversible (sunk) investments to source inputs, which lock buyers into particular suppliers in the short run, who have limited supply capacity and are subject to shocks. It then explores how risk averse buyers invest in a portfolio of suppliers to manage risk. Further, it examines how those investments affect the propagation of shocks, and whether trade and industrial policies may correct inefficiencies in risk taking to mitigate aggregate volatility. The novelty of these projects lies in their synthesis of micro- and macro-perspectives on supply chain risks, as needed for policy analysis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

最近的重大冲击（例如，美国 - 中国关税的增加和Covid-19-19的大流行）通过全球供应链回荡。结果，越来越关注的是，对外国投入的依赖会使企业和宏观经济更广泛地暴露出来的风险。 例如，供应链中断被广泛归咎于通货膨胀的复兴。 此外，最近的政策改革鼓励重新培养制造生产。 该项目探讨了输入采购的关键微观经济特征，包括产能限制，沉没的投资和不确定性下的决策，会带来宏观经济风险。 这些发现将使决策者能够更准确地评估供应链风险，并设计政策以管理这些风险。在项目的第一部分中，研究人员将研究供应链中偶尔具有约束力的能力约束，并对它们造成震惊，以塑造通货膨胀。当国内或外国公司耗尽其能力时，他们会通过增加对边际成本的加价来提高价格。 在总体中，约束约束改变了国内和进口价格菲利普斯曲线，例如以降低形式的成本量冲击，从而燃料通货膨胀。 该项目将此想法建立在现代的多部门，开放经济，新凯恩斯主义模型中，应用框架来解释美国的最新数据并研究对供应链中断的最佳货币政策响应。 在项目的第二部分中，研究人员研究了公司如何投资其供应链能力，以及这些投资对宏观经济冲击的传播如何重要。 该项目开发了一个框架，在该框架中，公司进行了不可逆的（沉没）投资来获取投入，这些投资在短期内将买家锁定在特定的供应商中，这些供应商的供应能力有限，并且会受到冲击。然后，它探讨了种种风险购买者如何投资供应商的投资组合来管理风险。 此外，它研究了这些投资如何影响冲击的传播，以及贸易和工业政策是否可以纠正效率低下，以减轻总体波动。 这些项目的新颖性在于它们根据政策分析的需要综合了供应链风险的微观和宏观观察。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响来通过评估来支持的。