Labor Market Reforms and the Macroeconomic Supply Side in the Short and Long Run

该项目继续并扩展了优先方案第一阶段进行的研究，该方案调查了供给侧政策对宏观经济动态的短期和长期影响，重点是劳动力市场改革。由于欧元区尚未克服其主权债务危机，结构改革对于恢复持续增长是不可或缺的，因此这一专题仍然具有很强的相关性。第一批研究继续侧重于社会保障制度及其财政对宏观经济复苏的阻碍作用。研究的起点是，在存在劳动力市场摩擦的均衡模型中，为社会保障项目实施平衡预算规则。这一特征导致了反周期的工资税负担，从而在经济中形成了一个显著的时变、扭曲的楔形。在第一个资助期进行的研究建立了一个数据集，涵盖经合组织国家社会保障缴费的成套税级和相关边际税率，将向研究人员提供。实证结果表明，SSC利率的变动是逆周期的，而正在进行的研究是在新凯恩斯主义的动态随机一般均衡模型的背景下考察宏观经济效应的，该模型包含了详细的劳动力市场制度。第二部分将把重点转移到德国劳动力市场在微观计量经济学层面上的异同，与外围国家相比，以及对可能的劳动力市场改革的影响。这一焦点的灵感来自于关于德国劳动力市场改革在德国劳动力市场最近取得成功中所起作用的讨论。使用微观数据，我们将估计1993-2010年期间德国的工资刚性，以评估改革是否对成功做出了贡献。将同样的估计策略应用于希腊的微观数据，将有助于了解希腊劳动力市场的可比性，从而了解可能成功的改革。在该项目的最后阶段，将在货币联盟的动态随机一般均衡模型中研究降低工资刚性政策的宏观经济效应。

This project continues and extends research conducted in the first period of the Priority Program, which investigated short and long-run impacts of supply-side policy on macroeconomic dynamics, with a strong focus on labor market reforms. The topic remains highly relevant, as the Eurozone has not yet overcome its sovereign debt crisis and structural reforms are indispensable for returning to sustained growth.The first strand of research continues to focus on the role of social security systems and their finance as an impediment to macroeconomic recovery. The starting point is research which enforces a balanced-budget rule for social security programs in equilibrium models with labor market frictions. This feature gives rise to countercyclical payroll tax burdens and thereby a significant time-varying, distortionary wedge in the economy. Research conducted in the first funding period resulted in the construction of a dataset covering complete sets of tax brackets and associated marginal rates for social security contributions (SSC) in OECD countries that will be made available to researchers. Empirical findings suggest that SSC rates move countercyclically, while ongoing research investigates the macroeconomic effects in the context of a New Keynesian DSGE model with detailed labor market institutions.The second part will shift focus to similarities and differences of the German labor market at the microeconometric level, compared with that of the periphery countries, and implications for possible labor-market reforms. This focus is inspired by the discussion about the role of German labor market reforms in the recent success of the German labor market. Using micro data, we will estimate wage rigidity in Germany in the period 1993-2010 to assess if the reforms contributed to the success. Application of the same estimation strategy to Greek micro data will be informative about the comparability of the Greek labor market and hence about likely successful reforms. In the final phase of the project, macroeconomic effects of wage-rigidity reducing policies will be studied in a DSGE model of a monetary union.