Labor Market Reforms and the Macroeconomic Supply Side in the Short and Long Run

该项目延续并扩展了“优先计划”第一阶段开展的研究，该阶段研究了供给侧政策对宏观经济动态的短期和长期影响，重点关注劳动力市场改革。由于欧元区尚未克服主权债务危机，结构性改革对于恢复持续增长是不可或缺的，因此这一话题仍具有高度相关性。第一部分研究继续侧重于社会保障制度及其财政对宏观经济复苏的阻碍作用。本文的出发点是在具有劳动力市场摩擦的均衡模型中对社会保障项目实施平衡预算规则的研究。这一特征导致了反周期的工资税负担，从而在经济中形成了一个显著的时变、扭曲的楔子。在第一个资助期内进行的研究导致构建了一个数据集，该数据集涵盖了经合组织国家社会保障缴款（SSC）的完整税率和相关边际税率，将提供给研究人员。实证研究结果表明，SSC利率是逆周期移动的，而正在进行的研究则是在具有详细劳动力市场制度的新凯恩斯DSGE模型背景下调查宏观经济效应。第二部分将把重点转移到德国劳动力市场与外围国家在微观计量层面的异同，以及可能的劳动力市场改革的影响。这种关注的灵感来自于关于德国劳动力市场改革在最近德国劳动力市场成功中的作用的讨论。使用微观数据，我们将估计1993-2010年期间德国的工资刚性，以评估改革是否有助于成功。将相同的估计策略应用于希腊的微观数据，将有助于了解希腊劳动力市场的可比性，从而了解可能成功的改革。在项目的最后阶段，将在货币联盟的DSGE模型中研究降低工资刚性政策的宏观经济影响。

This project continues and extends research conducted in the first period of the Priority Program, which investigated short and long-run impacts of supply-side policy on macroeconomic dynamics, with a strong focus on labor market reforms. The topic remains highly relevant, as the Eurozone has not yet overcome its sovereign debt crisis and structural reforms are indispensable for returning to sustained growth.The first strand of research continues to focus on the role of social security systems and their finance as an impediment to macroeconomic recovery. The starting point is research which enforces a balanced-budget rule for social security programs in equilibrium models with labor market frictions. This feature gives rise to countercyclical payroll tax burdens and thereby a significant time-varying, distortionary wedge in the economy. Research conducted in the first funding period resulted in the construction of a dataset covering complete sets of tax brackets and associated marginal rates for social security contributions (SSC) in OECD countries that will be made available to researchers. Empirical findings suggest that SSC rates move countercyclically, while ongoing research investigates the macroeconomic effects in the context of a New Keynesian DSGE model with detailed labor market institutions.The second part will shift focus to similarities and differences of the German labor market at the microeconometric level, compared with that of the periphery countries, and implications for possible labor-market reforms. This focus is inspired by the discussion about the role of German labor market reforms in the recent success of the German labor market. Using micro data, we will estimate wage rigidity in Germany in the period 1993-2010 to assess if the reforms contributed to the success. Application of the same estimation strategy to Greek micro data will be informative about the comparability of the Greek labor market and hence about likely successful reforms. In the final phase of the project, macroeconomic effects of wage-rigidity reducing policies will be studied in a DSGE model of a monetary union.