Labor Market Reforms and the Macroeconomic Supply Side in the Short and Long Run

该项目继续并扩展了优先计划第一期的研究，该研究调查了供给侧政策对宏观经济动态的短期和长期影响，重点关注劳动力市场改革。由于欧元区尚未克服主权债务危机，结构性改革对于恢复可持续增长是必不可少的，因此这一主题仍然具有高度相关性。第一部分研究继续关注社会保障制度及其融资对宏观经济复苏的阻碍作用。研究的出发点是，在劳动力市场摩擦的均衡模型中，对社会保障计划实施平衡预算规则。这一特点造成了反周期的工资税负担，从而在经济中形成了一个随时间变化的扭曲性楔子。在第一个供资期进行的研究导致建立了一个数据集，涵盖经合组织国家的全套税级和相关的社会保障缴款边际税率，将提供给研究人员。实证结果表明，SSC利率呈反周期性波动，而正在进行的研究则在新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型的背景下，详细的劳动力市场制度，探讨宏观经济的影响。第二部分将重点转移到德国的劳动力市场的相似性和差异，在微观计量层面上，与周边国家相比，可能的劳动力市场改革的含义。这一重点的灵感来自于对德国劳动力市场改革在德国劳动力市场最近的成功中所起作用的讨论。我们将使用微观数据来估计德国在1993-2010年期间的工资刚性，以评估改革是否有助于成功。将同样的估计策略应用于希腊的微观数据，将有助于了解希腊劳动力市场的可比性，从而了解可能成功的改革。在该项目的最后阶段，将在货币联盟的DSGE模型中研究降低工资刚性政策的宏观经济影响。

This project continues and extends research conducted in the first period of the Priority Program, which investigated short and long-run impacts of supply-side policy on macroeconomic dynamics, with a strong focus on labor market reforms. The topic remains highly relevant, as the Eurozone has not yet overcome its sovereign debt crisis and structural reforms are indispensable for returning to sustained growth.The first strand of research continues to focus on the role of social security systems and their finance as an impediment to macroeconomic recovery. The starting point is research which enforces a balanced-budget rule for social security programs in equilibrium models with labor market frictions. This feature gives rise to countercyclical payroll tax burdens and thereby a significant time-varying, distortionary wedge in the economy. Research conducted in the first funding period resulted in the construction of a dataset covering complete sets of tax brackets and associated marginal rates for social security contributions (SSC) in OECD countries that will be made available to researchers. Empirical findings suggest that SSC rates move countercyclically, while ongoing research investigates the macroeconomic effects in the context of a New Keynesian DSGE model with detailed labor market institutions.The second part will shift focus to similarities and differences of the German labor market at the microeconometric level, compared with that of the periphery countries, and implications for possible labor-market reforms. This focus is inspired by the discussion about the role of German labor market reforms in the recent success of the German labor market. Using micro data, we will estimate wage rigidity in Germany in the period 1993-2010 to assess if the reforms contributed to the success. Application of the same estimation strategy to Greek micro data will be informative about the comparability of the Greek labor market and hence about likely successful reforms. In the final phase of the project, macroeconomic effects of wage-rigidity reducing policies will be studied in a DSGE model of a monetary union.