The Influence of Dispatching on the Relationship between Capacity and Operation Quality of Railway Systems

在轨道制导系统容量研究中，等待时间是决定性变量。在现有方案中采用仿真方法进行容量研究时，需要调用综合调度算法求解受扰动时间表内的随机偏差，进而计算等待时间。因此，在给定的基础设施和固定的运行方案下，不同的调度算法会导致容量与运行质量之间的关系不同，这可以用容量研究的结果来表示。为了提高容量研究的准确性，系统地评价调度对关系的影响，进而推荐合适的调度算法，在一定的运行质量标准下实现规划容量。更准确的规划对提高基础设施利用率和避免基础设施重复投资具有重要意义。在此基础上，提出了一种新的调度算法，以系统地减少等待时间。该算法能够自动识别现场运行工况，并选择相应的调度策略和调度目标。采用新的调度算法，可以进一步提高容量，满足一定的运行质量标准。为了评估调度算法的影响，将建立一个多尺度的仿真模型，在微观、中观和宏观三个层面同时模拟铁路运营过程。对于较大的调查区域，对等待时间计算有重要意义的区域在微观层面上呈现，其他区域则在更有效的介观和宏观层面上呈现。根据基础设施元素的重要值，仿真模型可以在三个抽象层之间连续迁移。该模型很好地平衡了计算复杂度和求解质量。借助该多尺度仿真模型，可以计算出等待时间，进而推导出容量研究的所有结果。从而可以总结和量化调度对容量和运行质量关系的影响。本课题建立了具有连续缩放特征的多尺度模拟模型；将面向实时运行的调度与面向长期规划的容量研究相结合，提高了调度算法和容量研究精度。

In capacity research of track guided systems waiting times are decisive variables. When capacity research is carried out with simulation methods in existing solutions, an integrated dispatching algorithm will be called to solve stochastic deviations within the disturbed timetables, and then waiting times can be calculated. So on a given infrastructure and with a fixed operating program, different dispatching algorithms will result in different relationship between capacity and operation quality, which is represented by the results of capacity research. In order to improve the accuracy of capacity research, the influences of dispatching on the relationship will be evaluated systematically, and then suitable dispatching algorithms can be recommended to realize the planed capacity with certain standards of operation quality. A more accurate planning is meaningful to improve infrastructure exploitation rate and avoid redundant infrastructure investment. Furthermore, a new dispatching algorithm will be developed to reduce waiting times systematically. The new algorithm can automatically identify on-site operation conditions, and correspondingly select suitable dispatching strategies and objectives. With the new dispatching algorithm, the capacity can be further increased fulfilling certain operation quality standard. In order to evaluate influences of dispatching algorithms, a multi-scale simulation model will be developed, in which railway operation processes are simulated on microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic levels concurrently. For large investigation areas, the significant relevant areas to waiting time calculation is presented on microscopic level, and the other areas are presented on more efficient mesoscopic and macroscopic levels. Depending on significant values of infrastructure elements, the simulation model can migrate continuously between three abstraction levels. In this model computation complexity and solution quality are well balanced. Assisted by this multi-scale simulation model, waiting times can be calculated, and then all results of capacity research can be derived. Consequently the influences of dispatching on the relationship between capacity and operation quality can be summarized and quantified. In this project a multi-scale simulation model characterized by continuous scaling is developed; real-time operation oriented dispatching and long-term planning oriented capacity research are well connected, and both dispatching algorithms and capacity research accuracy are improved.