Simulation and analysis of abrupt climate change during the last glacial

末次冰期气候突变模拟与分析

• 批准号: 26394725
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Augusto Mangini
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2005-12-31 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/26394725?language=en
• 关键词: Simulation; analysis; abrupt; climate; change

With our project, we would like to address the cause of abrupt climate changes that occurred during the last glacial. While the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are documented in various climate archives, little evidence exists concerning their trigger. In particular, the origin of the characteristic time scale of ~1470 years that is apparently inherent in the events has not yet been successfully identified.In the first part of the project, we plan to analyse possible process chains by which a moderate temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic region can trigger abrupt shifts of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in an intermediate-complexity climate system model. We will further investigate to what degree DO events can be simulated by a response of the THC to century-scale variations in solar activity.In the second part of the project, we will validate key results of the first year by a comparison of our model simulations with paleodata from various climate archives and with results from a more complex follow-up model.

通过我们的项目，我们希望解决末次冰期发生的气候突变的原因。虽然所谓的Dansgaard-Oeschger（DO）事件被记录在各种气候档案中，但关于其触发因素的证据很少。特别是，起源的特征时间尺度的~1470年，显然是固有的事件尚未成功地identified.In项目的第一部分，我们计划分析可能的过程链，在北大西洋地区的中等温度异常可以触发突变的温盐环流（THC）在一个中等复杂的气候系统模式。我们将进一步研究THC对太阳活动百年尺度变化的响应在多大程度上可以模拟DO事件。在项目的第二部分，我们将通过将我们的模型模拟与来自各种气候档案的古数据以及更复杂的后续模型的结果进行比较来验证第一年的关键结果。