Coordination Funds

协调基金

• 批准号: 395374459
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Ralf Münnich
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft (DStatG)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/395374459?language=en
• 关键词: Coordination; Funds

The researcher group is addressing a nationwide, multi-sectoral microsimulation model at the level of households and individuals. Its purpose is to simulate 82 million German citizens living in about 40 million households including their regional membership and to make this information available for the purpose of microsimulation. Modern approaches in microsimulation bear the potential to enable researchers to examine and model the impact of political and economic measures as well as to analyze social developments and their effects. For this purpose, base data are generated using the simulation population of the 2011 German Census. During the project this database will be regularly updated and extended during the project by further variables in collaboration with the Federal Statistical Office. In order to do so, huge datasets such as the microcensus, SOEP, SHARE, PASS, Pairfam, as well as additional datasets suitable for this purpose will be used. With the aid of this statistically enriched dataset, socio-demographic changes of the underlying population are simulated by estimating transition probabilities on the basis of empirical data and finally those effects are implemented in the simulated data. This approach leads to the development of forecasting models for empirically-based, long-term planning. The simulation model is designed to cover a wide range of substantial areas (sectors).In the first phase the main objectives of the researcher group consist in creating the base data, the simulation-infrastructure, the integration of further micro-databases into the base data at the level of individuals as well as to model the transition probabilities. Concerning the relevant applications, the focus will be on family, care and migration research as these areas are heavily affected by socio-political measures and get only little attention in current simulations. It is the goal of this research proposal to analyze the consequences of such socio-political measures using simulation models.Phase two will emphasize a focus on extensions to the topics of health, traffic and work. Towards the end of the project, the dataset, simulation environment, and estimation methods will be made available to other research groups. The long-term goal is to create a simulation infrastructure in which researchers from various fields can apply their own scenarios by using the data and models provided by the researcher group. This microsimulation infrastructure being internationally unique with regard to its magnitude and its granularity will provide an opportunity for the research community to analyze socio-politically relevant research questions at a scientifically sophisticated high level.

该研究小组正在处理一个全国性的、多部门的家庭和个人微观模拟模型。其目的是模拟生活在大约4 000万个家庭中的8 200万德国公民，包括他们的区域成员，并为微观模拟提供这一信息。微观模拟的现代方法有可能使研究人员能够检查和模拟政治和经济措施的影响，以及分析社会发展及其影响。为此，使用2011年德国人口普查的模拟人口生成基础数据。在项目期间，将与联邦统计局合作，定期更新和扩大该数据库，增加更多变量。为了做到这一点，将使用大型数据集，如微型人口普查、SOEP、SHARE、PASS、Pairfam以及适用于这一目的的其他数据集。借助这一统计上丰富的数据集，通过在经验数据的基础上估计转移概率来模拟基础人口的社会人口变化，最后在模拟数据中实现这些影响。这种方法导致预测模型的发展，为基础的，长期的规划。模拟模型旨在涵盖广泛的实质性领域（部门），在第一阶段，研究小组的主要目标包括创建基础数据，模拟基础设施，将更多的微观数据库整合到个人层面的基础数据中，以及建立转移概率模型。关于相关应用，重点将放在家庭、护理和移徙研究上，因为这些领域受到社会政治措施的严重影响，在目前的模拟中很少得到关注。本研究计划的目标是利用模拟模型分析这些社会政治措施的后果，第二阶段将重点关注健康、交通和工作等专题的扩展。在项目结束时，数据集，模拟环境和估计方法将提供给其他研究小组。长期目标是创建一个模拟基础设施，来自各个领域的研究人员可以通过使用研究小组提供的数据和模型来应用自己的场景。这种微观仿真基础设施在其规模和粒度方面在国际上是独一无二的，这将为研究界提供一个机会，在科学复杂的高水平上分析社会政治相关的研究问题。