Modeling the state changes

对状态变化建模

• 批准号: 395373995
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Ralf Münnich
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Empirische Sozialforschung
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/395373995?language=en
• 关键词: Modeling; state; changes

A central problem of any dynamic microsimulation project is the estimation of the transition probabilities of existing states of the simulated units to subsequent states. In addition to the statistical modeling, the problem consists mainly in obtaining the necessary data for the numerous estimates (Li, O'Donoghue and Dekkers, 2014). This subproject is designed to identify, document, estimate and calibrate parameters, and to explore the perspectives of dynamic models in this specific microsimulation context. Almost every aspect of this project has a comprehensive literature (recent reviews: O'Donoghue (2014), Lovelace and Dumont (2016), and Rahman and Harding (2016)), which can not be reviewed here. Therefore, only the problems and proposed solutions directly relevant to the work program will be outlined.

任何动态微观仿真项目的一个中心问题是估计被仿真单元的现有状态到后续状态的转移概率。除了统计建模，问题主要在于获得大量估计所需的数据（Li，O'Donoghue和Dekkers，2014）。该子项目旨在识别、记录、估计和校准参数，并探索此特定微观仿真背景下动态模型的观点。这个项目的几乎每一个方面都有一个全面的文献（最近的评论：O'Donoghue（2014），Lovelace和Dumont（2016），以及Rahman和Harding（2016）），在这里无法回顾。因此，将只概述与工作方案直接有关的问题和拟议的解决办法。