Can parasite evolution reinforce the effects of climate warming?

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We are experiencing global changes unprecedented in human history. Future ecosystem func-tioning might be under double threat, as global warming (GW) will not only have direct adverse effects but may also increase the risk of parasite infections. It is commonly believed that GW will result in a “sicker world”, with infectious diseases increasing in prevalence and virulence. These predictions, however, are based on short-term experimental exposures to elevated tempera-tures, and thus ignore how parasites may adapt even though (micro)parasites are predisposed to evolve rapidly. Paradapt fills this gap by testing whether parasite evolution can reinforce the predicted “warmer hence sicker world” scenario. Specifically, we will examine whether long-term exposure to warming increases disease prevalence and virulence, as well as parasite taxonomic diversity. We will quantify evolutionary adaptations to elevated temperatures in a virulent protozoan microparasite of a model zooplankton species (Daphnia), at the trait-level and, in order to gain a mechanistic understanding, at the genome-level. We will employ a unique combination of experimental and natural evolution, elucidating different levels of controllability and biological relevance. Paradapt builds on the complementarity of Polish and German partners’ expertise: environmental sciences (PL) and evolution of disease (DE); hands-on experience with laboratory evolutionary assays (DE) and a unique system of replicated warm and control lakes (PL). These warm lakes have been receiving warm water from power plant system for 60 years, which resulted in elevated temperatures within realistic GW scenarios. They offer a unique opportunity to observe adaptation to a warming world. Paradapt will provide broad insights into the role of parasite adaptation in climate-driven disease emergence. Understanding the extent to which parasites adapt is essential for predicting disease spread in a warmer world.