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A Development of Price Forecasting System by Neural Network

神经网络价格预测系统的开发

基本信息

批准号：
06660283
负责人：
FUJII Yoshinori
金额：
$ 1.09万
依托单位：
Tottori University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1994
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1994 至 1995
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The aim of this research is to apply the neural network information processing theory to an analysis of demand structure of fruits and vegetables and examine the ability of neural network in non-linear analysis and its internal representations. Neural network has the ability to reproduce the input-output relationship, which generally hard to be understood, by appropriate learning process. After learning, the neural network used to be applied to simulation because it has obtained enough knowledge about sample data. But if the neural network can not make the internal representations of sample data precisely, there will be no grounds for simulation.We used MR neural network which is a kind of modified feed-forward neural network and acts like Multiple Regression analysis. For the analysis, we input the quantity forwarded from six producing areas including Tottori prefecture and forwarding time as input data, and the actual prices of the vegetables produced in Tottori as teaching data, so that it could learn the relationship of these data. After the learning ended, we simulated the relation between quantity of forwarded and price.The obtained results represented non-linearity of the demand structure. the internal representations of the neural network showed the demand structure of fruits and vegatables precisely. Thus, the non-linearity of the demand structure was given logical grounds.The results shows that the price of vegetables has no linear relationship with quantity.

本研究的目的是将神经网络信息处理理论应用于果蔬需求结构分析，考察神经网络的非线性分析能力及其内在表征。神经网络具有通过适当的学习过程重现一般难以理解的输入输出关系的能力。经过学习后，由于神经网络已经获得了足够的样本数据知识，所以常被应用于仿真。但如果神经网络不能准确地表达样本数据的内部表示，就没有模拟的依据。我们使用的是MR神经网络，它是一种改进的前馈神经网络，具有多元回归分析的作用。为了进行分析，我们输入了鸟取县等六个产地的转发数量和转发时间作为输入数据，以及鸟取县生产的蔬菜的实际价格作为教学数据，以便了解这些数据之间的关系。在学习结束后，我们模拟了转发数量与价格之间的关系，得到的结果反映了需求结构的非线性。神经网络的内部表示准确地表达了水果和蔬菜的需求结构。结果表明，蔬菜价格与数量之间不存在线性关系。