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Development of local wind prediction syste148 for improvement of wind resistant performance of the civil engineering structure in the mountainous region

提高山区土木工程结构抗风性能的局部风力预报系统开发148

基本信息

批准号：
13555125
负责人：
ISHIHARA Takeshi
金额：
$ 8.19万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

A new database for the typhoon parameters, such as translation velocity, approach angle, central pressure difference, radius of maximum winds, annual occurrence rate, was established and a new stochastic model of the typhoon was proposed. Combining the data of isobars in weather chart and the observation data obtained at meteorological stations, the percentage of success in pressure field analysis raised from 13% to 66%. The new stochastic model for the statistical features of typhoon improved the accuracy of pressure parameters and translation velocity and the overestimate of expected wind speed for long-term return period by the conventional model. The extreme wind speeds at the six typical sites in Japan were simulated by Monte Carlo method. As a result, the value of annual maximum based on the new model showed good agreement with those from observational data. Comparing the expected annual maximum obtained by conventional method, it was found that the annual maximum wind speeds by the new model were reduced by 11% and 19% for the 100-year and 1000-year return period, respectively.Next, a new model for predicting strong wind in mountainous region during typhoon was proposed. The increase of wind speed on the left-hand side of typhoon due to the fast movement was reproduced. The local wind speed in during typhoon can be predicted by using the new wind field model and local wind prediction system developed in this study.Finally, the accuracy of new system was verified during the typhoon No. 21, which attacked Kanto plain on October 1^<st> 2002 and was compared with the observation data obtained at Suigo area, where the power transmission towers collapsed. As a result, the characteristic of strong wind in Suigo area and the detailed distribution of strong wind near the site was made clear.

建立了台风平移速度、逼近角、中心气压差、最大风速半径、年发生率等参数的数据库，提出了一种新的台风随机模型。将天气图上的等压线资料与气象站的观测资料相结合，气压场分析的成功率由13%提高到66%。新的台风统计特征随机模型改善了传统模型对气压参数和平移速度的准确性以及对长期重现期风速期望值的高估。用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了日本6个典型站点的极值风速。结果表明，新模式计算的年最大值与实测值吻合较好。结果表明，与传统方法得到的年最大风速值相比，新模型得到的年最大风速值在百年一遇和千年一遇时分别降低了11%和19%。模拟结果再现了台风快速移动时左侧风速增加的现象。最后，以2002年10月1日袭击关东平原的第21号台风为例，验证了新系统的准确性<st>，并与发生输电塔倒塌事故的水乡地区的观测资料进行了比较。通过分析，明确了绥吾地区的大风特征和场地附近的大风分布情况。