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Development of local wind prediction syste148 for improvement of wind resistant performance of the civil engineering structure in the mountainous region

提高山区土木工程结构抗风性能的局部风力预报系统开发148

基本信息

批准号：
13555125
负责人：
ISHIHARA Takeshi
金额：
$ 8.19万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

A new database for the typhoon parameters, such as translation velocity, approach angle, central pressure difference, radius of maximum winds, annual occurrence rate, was established and a new stochastic model of the typhoon was proposed. Combining the data of isobars in weather chart and the observation data obtained at meteorological stations, the percentage of success in pressure field analysis raised from 13% to 66%. The new stochastic model for the statistical features of typhoon improved the accuracy of pressure parameters and translation velocity and the overestimate of expected wind speed for long-term return period by the conventional model. The extreme wind speeds at the six typical sites in Japan were simulated by Monte Carlo method. As a result, the value of annual maximum based on the new model showed good agreement with those from observational data. Comparing the expected annual maximum obtained by conventional method, it was found that the annual maximum wind speeds by the new model were reduced by 11% and 19% for the 100-year and 1000-year return period, respectively.Next, a new model for predicting strong wind in mountainous region during typhoon was proposed. The increase of wind speed on the left-hand side of typhoon due to the fast movement was reproduced. The local wind speed in during typhoon can be predicted by using the new wind field model and local wind prediction system developed in this study.Finally, the accuracy of new system was verified during the typhoon No. 21, which attacked Kanto plain on October 1^<st> 2002 and was compared with the observation data obtained at Suigo area, where the power transmission towers collapsed. As a result, the characteristic of strong wind in Suigo area and the detailed distribution of strong wind near the site was made clear.

建立了台风平移速度、接近角、中心压差、最大风半径、年发生率等参数数据库，并提出了台风的随机模型。结合天气图等压线资料和气象站观测资料，压力场分析成功率由13%提高到66%。新的台风统计特征随机模型改善了传统模型对长期回归期预期风速的高估，提高了气压参数和平移速度的准确性。用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了日本6个典型站点的极端风速。结果表明，新模式的年极大值与观测值吻合较好。与传统方法得到的年最大风速预期值相比，新模式在100年和1000年回归期的年最大风速分别降低了11%和19%。其次，提出了一种新的台风期间山区强风预报模型。重现了台风左侧因快速移动而导致的风速增加。利用本文建立的新风场模式和局地风预报系统，可以预测台风期间局地风速。最后，以2002年10月1日第21号台风袭击关东平原为例，对新系统的精度进行了验证，并与水谷地区输电塔倒塌的观测资料进行了比较。明确了绥戈地区的强风特征和场址附近大风的详细分布。