Development of local wind prediction syste148 for improvement of wind resistant performance of the civil engineering structure in the mountainous region

提高山区土木工程结构抗风性能的局部风力预报系统开发148

基本信息

批准号：
13555125
负责人：
ISHIHARA Takeshi
金额：
$ 8.19万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

A new database for the typhoon parameters, such as translation velocity, approach angle, central pressure difference, radius of maximum winds, annual occurrence rate, was established and a new stochastic model of the typhoon was proposed. Combining the data of isobars in weather chart and the observation data obtained at meteorological stations, the percentage of success in pressure field analysis raised from 13% to 66%. The new stochastic model for the statistical features of typhoon improved the accuracy of pressure parameters and translation velocity and the overestimate of expected wind speed for long-term return period by the conventional model. The extreme wind speeds at the six typical sites in Japan were simulated by Monte Carlo method. As a result, the value of annual maximum based on the new model showed good agreement with those from observational data. Comparing the expected annual maximum obtained by conventional method, it was found that the annual maximum wind speeds by the new model were reduced by 11% and 19% for the 100-year and 1000-year return period, respectively.Next, a new model for predicting strong wind in mountainous region during typhoon was proposed. The increase of wind speed on the left-hand side of typhoon due to the fast movement was reproduced. The local wind speed in during typhoon can be predicted by using the new wind field model and local wind prediction system developed in this study.Finally, the accuracy of new system was verified during the typhoon No. 21, which attacked Kanto plain on October 1^<st> 2002 and was compared with the observation data obtained at Suigo area, where the power transmission towers collapsed. As a result, the characteristic of strong wind in Suigo area and the detailed distribution of strong wind near the site was made clear.

建立了一个新的台风参数数据库，例如翻译速度，进近角，中央压力差，最大风的半径，年度发生率，并提出了台风的新随机模型。结合了天气图中的等射线数据和在气象站获得的观察数据，压力场分析成功的百分比从13％提高到66％。台风的统计特征的新随机模型提高了压力参数和翻译速度的准确性，并通过常规模型高估了长期返回周期的预期风速。日本六个典型地点的极端风速通过蒙特卡洛方法模拟。结果，基于新模型的年度最大值的价值与观察数据中的最大值表现出了良好的一致性。比较了通过常规方法获得的预期年度最大值，发现新模型的年度最大风速分别降低了11％和19％，分别为100年和1000年的回报期。下一期，提议在台风期间预测山区强风的新模型。由于快速运动而导致的台风左侧的风速增加。台风期间的局部风速可以通过使用新的风场模型和本研究中开发的本地风预测系统来预测。在最后，在21号台风中验证了新系统的准确性，该台风在2002年10月1日袭击了Kanto Plain，并与Suigo区域获得的观察数据相比，在Suigo区域获得了电力传输塔。结果，Suigo区域强风的特征和附近的强风的详细分布清晰。