Development of a real time prediction system for local wind assessment based on regional atmospheric models and its verification by the field tests

基于区域大气模式的局地风速评估实时预报系统开发及现场试验验证

• 批准号: 14350239
• 负责人: ISHIHARA Takeshi
• 金额: $ 7.94万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2002 至 2003
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14350239/
• 关键词: Regional Atmospheric models; Local wind; Real time prediction; Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling; Idealizing and Realizing Approach; Wind climate; Wind Power production; 風況精査; DSD法; 非線形風況予測モデル; IRA法; 年平均風速; 精度検証; 局地風況

A real time prediction system for local wind and wind power production assessment has been developed based on regional atmospheric models and micro wind simulator which can take the detailed topograpical effect into account. In this study, a Dynamical Statistical Downscaling Procedure and Idealizing and Realizing Approach were proposed.This method first dynamically predicts the regional wind by mesoscale atmospheric model with the horizontal resolution of 1 to 2 km which was embedded in the global model. Next, regional wind is statistically analyzed to determine regional wind climate. Finally, regional wind climate is downscaled to micro wind climate with horizontal resolution of 10 to 50m. The advantage of this procedure is to predict an accurate micro wind in mountainous area and to take the effect of local circulation such as sea-land breeze and mountain-valley wind into account.Micro wind predicted by this approach was verified at Tappi Cape, north of Japan and shows good agreement with the measurement. The prediction errors of annual mean wind speed at the Tappi lighthouse and the Wind Park are 3.5% and 8%, respectively.

基于区域大气模式和微型风场模拟器，建立了一个考虑地形影响的真实的风场实时预报系统，并对该系统进行了风力发电评估。本研究提出了一种动态统计降尺度方法和理想化实现途径，该方法首先将水平分辨率为1 ~ 2km的中尺度大气模式嵌入全球模式中，对区域风场进行动态预报。其次，对区域风进行统计分析，以确定区域风气候。最后将区域风气候降尺度为水平分辨率为10 ~ 50 m的微尺度风气候。该方法的优点是可以准确预测山区的微风，并考虑了海陆风和山谷风等局部环流的影响。该方法预测的微风在日本北部的塔皮角得到了验证，与测量结果吻合良好。塔皮灯塔和风电场的年平均风速预测误差分别为3.5%和8%。

项目成果

石原孟, 山口敦, 藤野陽三: "複雑地形における局所風況の数値予測と大型風洞実験による検証"土木学会論文集. No.731/I-63. 195-211 (2003)

Men Ishihara、Atsushi Yamaguchi、Yozo Fujino：“复杂地形中局部风况的数值预测和大规模风洞实验的验证”日本土木工程师学会论文集第 731/I-63 号。 2003）

石原孟, 山口敦, 藤野陽三: "複雑地形における局所風況の数値予測と大型風洞実験による検証"土木学会論文集. No.731/I-63. 195-221 (2003)

Men Ishihara、Atsushi Yamaguchi、Yozo Fujino：“复杂地形中局部风况的数值预测和大规模风洞实验的验证”日本土木工程师学会论文集第 731/I-63 号。 2003）

T.Ishihara, A.Yamaguchi, Y.Fujino: "A nonlinear model MASCOT : development and application"Proc.of 2003 European Energy Conference and Exhibition. T1.8. 1-7 (2003)

T.Ishihara、A.Yamaguchi、Y.Fujino：“非线性模型 MASCOT：开发与应用”2003 年欧洲能源会议暨展览会论文集。

T.Ishihara, A.Yamaguchi, Y.Fujino, I.Uno: "A new approach for wind climate assessment and its verification"WIND ENERGY(Japanese). vol.27-No.4. 4-7 (2003)

T.Ishihara、A.Yamaguchi、Y.Fujino、I.Uno：“风气候评估及其验证的新方法”WIND ENERGY（日语）。

石原孟, 山口敦, 藤野陽三, 鵜野伊津志: "新しい風況精査手法の提案と実測による検証"風力エネルギー. Vol.27, No.4. 4-7 (2003)

石原猛、山口厚、藤野洋三、宇野一志：“通过实际测量验证新的风况调查方法的提议”《风能》第 27 卷，第 4-7 期（2003 年）。