Development of a real time prediction system for local wind assessment based on regional atmospheric models and its verification by the field tests

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A real time prediction system for local wind and wind power production assessment has been developed based on regional atmospheric models and micro wind simulator which can take the detailed topograpical effect into account. In this study, a Dynamical Statistical Downscaling Procedure and Idealizing and Realizing Approach were proposed.This method first dynamically predicts the regional wind by mesoscale atmospheric model with the horizontal resolution of 1 to 2 km which was embedded in the global model. Next, regional wind is statistically analyzed to determine regional wind climate. Finally, regional wind climate is downscaled to micro wind climate with horizontal resolution of 10 to 50m. The advantage of this procedure is to predict an accurate micro wind in mountainous area and to take the effect of local circulation such as sea-land breeze and mountain-valley wind into account.Micro wind predicted by this approach was verified at Tappi Cape, north of Japan and shows good agreement with the measurement. The prediction errors of annual mean wind speed at the Tappi lighthouse and the Wind Park are 3.5% and 8%, respectively.