Development of a real time prediction system for local wind assessment based on regional atmospheric models and its verification by the field tests

基于区域大气模式的局地风速评估实时预报系统开发及现场试验验证

• 批准号: 14350239
• 负责人: ISHIHARA Takeshi
• 金额: $ 7.94万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2002 至 2003
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14350239/
• 关键词: Regional Atmospheric models; Local wind; Real time prediction; Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling; Idealizing and Realizing Approach; Wind climate; Wind Power production; 風況精査; DSD法; 非線形風況予測モデル; IRA法; 年平均風速; 精度検証; 局地風況

A real time prediction system for local wind and wind power production assessment has been developed based on regional atmospheric models and micro wind simulator which can take the detailed topograpical effect into account. In this study, a Dynamical Statistical Downscaling Procedure and Idealizing and Realizing Approach were proposed.This method first dynamically predicts the regional wind by mesoscale atmospheric model with the horizontal resolution of 1 to 2 km which was embedded in the global model. Next, regional wind is statistically analyzed to determine regional wind climate. Finally, regional wind climate is downscaled to micro wind climate with horizontal resolution of 10 to 50m. The advantage of this procedure is to predict an accurate micro wind in mountainous area and to take the effect of local circulation such as sea-land breeze and mountain-valley wind into account.Micro wind predicted by this approach was verified at Tappi Cape, north of Japan and shows good agreement with the measurement. The prediction errors of annual mean wind speed at the Tappi lighthouse and the Wind Park are 3.5% and 8%, respectively.

基于区域大气模型和微风模拟器，已经开发了用于本地风能和风能生产评估的实时预测系统，该系统可以考虑到详细的托托式效应。在这项研究中，提出了动态统计降低程序以及理想化和实现方法。该方法首先通过中尺度大气模型动态预测区域风，其水平分辨率为1至2 km，该模型嵌入了全球模型中。接下来，对区域风进行统计分析以确定区域风气候。最后，区域风气候被降低至微风气候，水平分辨率为10至50m。该程序的优点是预测山区的准确微风，并考虑到局部循环（例如海上微风和山地谷风）的效果。这种方法预测的微风在日本北部的Tappi Cape验证，并与测量值显示出良好的一致性。 Tappi灯塔和风公园的年平均风速的预测错误分别为3.5％和8％。

项目成果

石原孟, 山口敦, 藤野陽三: "複雑地形における局所風況の数値予測と大型風洞実験による検証"土木学会論文集. No.731/I-63. 195-211 (2003)

Men Ishihara、Atsushi Yamaguchi、Yozo Fujino：“复杂地形中局部风况的数值预测和大规模风洞实验的验证”日本土木工程师学会论文集第 731/I-63 号。 2003）

石原孟, 山口敦, 藤野陽三: "複雑地形における局所風況の数値予測と大型風洞実験による検証"土木学会論文集. No.731/I-63. 195-221 (2003)

Men Ishihara、Atsushi Yamaguchi、Yozo Fujino：“复杂地形中局部风况的数值预测和大规模风洞实验的验证”日本土木工程师学会论文集第 731/I-63 号。 2003）

T.Ishihara, A.Yamaguchi, Y.Fujino: "A nonlinear model MASCOT : development and application"Proc.of 2003 European Energy Conference and Exhibition. T1.8. 1-7 (2003)

T.Ishihara、A.Yamaguchi、Y.Fujino：“非线性模型 MASCOT：开发与应用”2003 年欧洲能源会议暨展览会论文集。

T.Ishihara, A.Yamaguchi, Y.Fujino, I.Uno: "A new approach for wind climate assessment and its verification"WIND ENERGY(Japanese). vol.27-No.4. 4-7 (2003)

T.Ishihara、A.Yamaguchi、Y.Fujino、I.Uno：“风气候评估及其验证的新方法”WIND ENERGY（日语）。

山口敦, 石原孟, コージャクソン, 鵜野伊津志, 藤野陽三: "地域気象モデルを利用した風況精査手法の提案と実測による検証 その2 実測による検証"日本風工学会誌. 95号(掲載受理済). (2003)

Atsushi Yamaguchi、Meng Ishihara、Coe Jackson、Izushi Uno、Yozo Fujino：“使用区域天气模型的风况调查方法的提案和实际测量验证第 2 部分的实际测量验证”日本风工程学会杂志第 95 期。 （已接受发表））（2003）。