Development of wind climate information system for improvement of maintenance strategy of civil engineering structures and its verification by observations

改进土木工程结构维护策略的风气候信息系统开发及其观测验证

基本信息

批准号：
16360223
负责人：
ISHIHARA Takeshi
金额：
$ 9.34万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

It is important to accurately predict local wind climate, for improvement of maintenance strategy of engineering structures and efficient development. This study aims to develop a wind climate information system for providing a wind climate data with high resolution and verifying the accuracy of the proposed system. The main results obtained from this study are summarized as follows :First, a Dynamical Statistical Downscaling Procedure was proposed in this study. It consists of predictions of the regional wind by mesoscale atmospheric models and statistical analysis determining regional wind climate. A nonlinear micro wind prediction model and Idealizing and Realizing Approach were used to downscale regional wind climate to micro wind climate. This procedure can describe accurately the micro topography and take the effect of local circulation such as sea-land breeze and mountain-valley wind into account.Secondly, a database was established using the mesoscale model of RAMS, including 10 minutes mean wind speeds and directions with the minimum horizontal resolution of 2km. Offshore wind energy potential in the Kanto coastal region was estimated using the database for wind farm developments. Total theoretical potential reaches 277TWh/year accounting for 94% of the annual demand for Tokyo Electric Power Company, considering the area 50km from the shore and 2MW wind turbines situated with 8D by 8D spacing.Finally, the applicability and accuracy of the proposed system were examined using the 10 minutes mean wind speeds observed at Tappi and Choshi. The annual mean wind speeds predicted by the proposed model demonstrated good agreement with observations with averaged prediction errors of 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively.

准确预测当地风气候，以改善工程结构的维护策略和有效的发展非常重要。这项研究旨在开发风气候信息系统，以提供高分辨率的风气候数据并验证所提出系统的准确性。从这项研究中获得的主要结果总结如下：首先，在本研究中提出了动态统计缩小程序。它由中尺度大气模型对区域风的预测以及确定区域风气候的统计分析组成。非线性微风预测模型以及理想化和实现方法用于将区域风气候降低到微风气候。该过程可以准确地描述微观形象，并考虑到局部循环的效果，例如海兰微风和山谷风。第二，使用RAM的中尺度模型建立了一个数据库，包括10分钟的平均风速和最小水平分辨率为2km的最小水平分辨率。使用风电场开发数据库估算了关东沿海地区的海上风能潜力。总理潜力达到277TWH/年，占东京电力公司年度需求的94％，考虑到距离海岸50公里的面积和2MW风力涡轮机，该面积为8D乘8D间距。实际上，使用在Tappi和Choshi上经过10分钟的平均风速检查了拟议的系统的适用性和准确性。所提出的模型预测的年平均风速与观察结果良好，平均预测错误分别为4.6％和4.8％。