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Development of wind climate information system for improvement of maintenance strategy of civil engineering structures and its verification by observations

改进土木工程结构维护策略的风气候信息系统开发及其观测验证

基本信息

批准号：
16360223
负责人：
ISHIHARA Takeshi
金额：
$ 9.34万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

It is important to accurately predict local wind climate, for improvement of maintenance strategy of engineering structures and efficient development. This study aims to develop a wind climate information system for providing a wind climate data with high resolution and verifying the accuracy of the proposed system. The main results obtained from this study are summarized as follows :First, a Dynamical Statistical Downscaling Procedure was proposed in this study. It consists of predictions of the regional wind by mesoscale atmospheric models and statistical analysis determining regional wind climate. A nonlinear micro wind prediction model and Idealizing and Realizing Approach were used to downscale regional wind climate to micro wind climate. This procedure can describe accurately the micro topography and take the effect of local circulation such as sea-land breeze and mountain-valley wind into account.Secondly, a database was established using the mesoscale model of RAMS, including 10 minutes mean wind speeds and directions with the minimum horizontal resolution of 2km. Offshore wind energy potential in the Kanto coastal region was estimated using the database for wind farm developments. Total theoretical potential reaches 277TWh/year accounting for 94% of the annual demand for Tokyo Electric Power Company, considering the area 50km from the shore and 2MW wind turbines situated with 8D by 8D spacing.Finally, the applicability and accuracy of the proposed system were examined using the 10 minutes mean wind speeds observed at Tappi and Choshi. The annual mean wind speeds predicted by the proposed model demonstrated good agreement with observations with averaged prediction errors of 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively.

准确预测局地风气候，对改进工程结构的维护策略和高效发展具有重要意义。本研究旨在发展风气候资讯系统，提供高解像度的风气候资料，并验证系统的准确性。主要研究结果如下：首先，本文提出了一种动态统计降尺度方法。它由中尺度大气模式对区域风的预测和确定区域风气候的统计分析组成。采用非线性微风预测模型和理想化实现方法，将区域风气候降尺度为微风气候。该程序能准确地描述微地形，并能考虑海陆风、山谷风等局地环流的影响。其次，利用RAMS中尺度模式建立了最小水平分辨率为2km的10分钟平均风速和风向数据库；利用风力发电场开发数据库估计了关东沿海地区的海上风能潜力。考虑到距离海岸50公里的区域和2MW的风力涡轮机以8D乘8D的间距分布，总理论潜力达到277TWh/年，占东京电力公司年需求的94%。最后，利用在Tappi和Choshi观测到的10分钟平均风速来检验所提出系统的适用性和准确性。模型预报的年平均风速与观测值吻合较好，平均预报误差分别为4.6%和4.8%。