A STUDY ON THE TRAINING AND RECRUITMENT OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHER : ESTIMATING THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR TWENTY YEARS INTO THE YEAR 2010

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It is important to understand the trends and behavior of scientific and academic employment in order to shape national higher education policy. The purpose of this study is to examine with simulation the impact of the decrease in the student population and of the business depression in the past and economic activity in future on the demand and supply for scientific manpower in Japan. In this study we examine twelve cases mainly, with breakdown by sectors (industry, research institutes, and university) and by fields of study (humanities and social sciences, physics, engineering, agriculture, health, and the other) : three cases for higher education enrolment((1)maximum-(2)many-(3)minimum) by two for economic growth (**high-**low) and by two for school career of new recruits as scientific researchers ((]SY.encircleda.[) changineg to credentialism-(]SY.encircledb.[) not changing as present condition). The results of this projection are as follows :1) In four cases ((3)&**or**&(]SY.encircleda.[)or(]SY.encircledb.[)), it will be necessarry to expand the the doctoral courses 1.4 to 3.6 times more than in 1992 to meet the future requirements for the Ph.D's.2) In another four cases ((]SY.encircledb.[)&(1)or(2)&**or**), more of the graduates of doctoral courses will be unemployed as scientific researchers. Then, the sector of intustry will play an important role to balance between researchers required and available Ph.D's, for the demand for academic staff will be declined with the decrease in the student population.3) However, unless the university sector employs as many new postgraduate students as ever, the average age of the full-time staff will advance and the highly productive scientific activity cannot be maintained in the universities.4) Then, we point out that the home of 'fundamental research' must be founded outside the university, or that the system to train and to employ the young staff must be improved or newly established.