A Study on Actual Situation and Prospect of Transition to Market Economy in East European Countries : with Comparison of Central East Europe and Southern East Europe

首先，我研究了东欧国家特别是前南斯拉夫私有化的实际情况。在斯洛文尼亚，虽然在90年代初，渐进式办法和凭单法的免费分配办法之间存在争议，但1992年开始了以折衷办法为基础的私有化。在克罗地亚，大约50%拥有社会所有财产的企业已经私有化。新南斯拉夫联邦在民营化方面落后于北方两个共和国，这是由于民族冲突和联合国制裁造成的经济损失。新南斯拉夫虽然迫切需要外国资本，却无法从外国金融机构获得信贷，因为它还没有恢复货币基金组织和世界银行的成员资格。虽然马其顿早在1989年就开始私有化，但由于马其顿迫切需要摆脱对新南斯拉夫不制裁和与希腊经济关系破裂（直到1995年）所造成的间接影响所造成的经济困难，这一进程十分缓慢。其次，在一定程度上明确了银行体制改革的实际情况。从80年代末到90年代初，东欧国家将单一银行体系改造为两层银行体系。匈牙利、波兰、捷克等中东欧国家由于战前以来的传统和60年代以来的改革努力，与西方国家相似的金融体系正在迅速扎根。与这些国家相比，这种改革在保加利亚和罗马尼亚等东南欧国家并不容易。

Firstly, I have studied actual situations of privatization in East European countries, especially in the former Yugoslavia. In Slovenia although there was a dispute between the gradual approach and the free distribution approach with voucher method in the early 90s, the privatization based on eclectic approach was initiated in 1992. In Croatia about 50% of enterprises with socially owned property have been already privatized. New Yugoslav Federation falls behind the northern two republics in privatization bue to economic damaqges dariving from nationality conflicts and the UN sanction. New Yugoslavia, though in dire needs of foreign capitals, is not able to get credits from foreign financial institutions, since its membership of IMF and World Bank is not restored yet. Although Macedonia began privatization already in 1989, the process is sluggish because it is of urgent necessity for Macedonia to escape from economic difficulties deriving from indirect influences of the UNsanction against New Yugoslavia and a rupture of economic relations with Greek (till 1995).Secondly, the actual situation of reforms of banking system has been clarified to certain extent. From the late 80s to the early 90s East European countries remodelled the mono-banking system into the banking system with two tiers. The financial system similar to Western countries is swiftly taking its roots in the Central East European countries such as Hungary, Poland and Czech owing to their traditions since the prewar period and thrir efforts in reforms since 60s. In contrast to these countries, such a reform is not so easy in the Southern East Europe such as Bulgaria and Romania.