A methodology for evaluating reliability of benefit of infrastructure development projects by use of discrete choice models

近年来出版了许多实用的成本效益分析手册，以评价各类基础设施发展项目的效率，以满足日益增加的责任制需要。与此同时，公众对自然环境的兴趣日益增加，使得评估基础设施开发项目的环境影响成为必然。成本效益分析手册还解释了对项目引起的环境质量变化的效益计量。虽然评估项目所衡量的效益和成本的可靠性对于使项目评价更负责任非常重要，但评估成本效益分析可靠性的方法既没有很好地确立，也没有在这些手册中得到考虑。本研究的重点是方法的发展，以评估方法的可靠性，效益的基础设施建设项目，涉及环境质量的变化和它的应用项目ado 关于我们 判决。用两种不同类型的离散选择模型来描述条件价值调查问卷调查中被调查者的行为和用户到自然环境丰富的地区旅游的行为，陈述偏好模型（SP）和显示偏好模型（RP）。该研究提出的方法来评估的可靠性的利益衡量的RP为基础的或SP为基础的离散选择模型。对于SP模型，本研究成功地导出了估计效益的置信区间的精确估计。然而，对于RP模型，由于该模型是非线性的，近似方法，如Talor-Maclaurin展开，Edgeworth展开和基于仿真的方法，如Bootstrap方法，Jack-knife方法和基于Monte Carlo的方法进行了测试。通过蒙特卡罗模拟验证了所提方法的可靠性评估精度。结果表明，基于模拟的方法适合足够数量的试验。在琵琶湖和木津河的案例研究的方法的适用性也进行了检查。在利用离散选择模型评估效益可靠性的基础上，提出了含噪声的项目效益判断方法，并提出了辅助判断的图解法。少

Many manuals of practical cost-benefit analysis to evaluate efficiencies of various types of infrastructure development projects have been published in recent years as to respond to increasing needs for accountability. Simultaneously, growing public interest in natural environment makes inevitable to assess environmental effects of an infrastructure development project. The cost-benefit analysis manuals also contain explanations about benefit measurements of environmental quality change due to the projects. Although it is very important to assess reliability of the measured benefit and cost of projects as to make the project evaluation more accountable, methodology to assess reliability of cost-benefit analysis is neither well established nor considered in these manuals. This study focuses on methodological development of a methodology to assess reliability of benefit of a infrastructure development project which involves environmental quality change and its application for project ado … More ption judgment. Two different types of discrete choice models are used for describing respondents' behavior in questionnaire surveys in contingent valuation surveys and users' behavior to make trip to the area which has rich natural environment, i.e., stated preference model (SP) and revealed preference model (RP), respectively. The study proposed methods to evaluate reliability of benefits measured either by a RP based or a SP based discrete choice model. For SP model, the study successfully could derive exact estimator of confidence intervals of estimated benefits. However, for RP model, since the model is non-linear, approximation methods such as Talor-Maclaurin expansion, Edgeworth expansion and simulation based methods such as Bootstrap method, Jack-knife Methods and Monte Carlo based method are tested. The accuracy of evaluation of reliability obtained by proposed methods are checked by Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that simulation based methods fit well for enough number of trials. Applicability of the methods are also examined by case studies in the Lake Biwa and Kizu river. Methodology to judge project efficiency with noise is also proposed based on the methods to assess the reliability of benefits measured by use of discreate choice model and a graphical method to help the judgment is also proposed. Less