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A methodology for evaluating reliability of benefit of infrastructure development projects by use of discrete choice models

A methodology for evaluating reliability of benefit of infrastructure development projects by use of discrete choice models
使用离散选择模型评估基础设施开发项目效益可靠性的方法
批准号:
12650531
负责人:
OKADA Norio
金额:
$2.18万
依托单位:
依托单位国家:
日本
项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份:
2000
资助国家:
日本
项目状态:
已结题
起止时间:
2000 至 2001

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中文摘要
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英文摘要
Many manuals of practical cost-benefit analysis to evaluate efficiencies of various types of infrastructure development projects have been published in recent years as to respond to increasing needs for accountability. Simultaneously, growing public interest in natural environment makes inevitable to assess environmental effects of an infrastructure development project. The cost-benefit analysis manuals also contain explanations about benefit measurements of environmental quality change due to the projects. Although it is very important to assess reliability of the measured benefit and cost of projects as to make the project evaluation more accountable, methodology to assess reliability of cost-benefit analysis is neither well established nor considered in these manuals. This study focuses on methodological development of a methodology to assess reliability of benefit of a infrastructure development project which involves environmental quality change and its application for project ado … More ption judgment. Two different types of discrete choice models are used for describing respondents' behavior in questionnaire surveys in contingent valuation surveys and users' behavior to make trip to the area which has rich natural environment, i.e., stated preference model (SP) and revealed preference model (RP), respectively. The study proposed methods to evaluate reliability of benefits measured either by a RP based or a SP based discrete choice model. For SP model, the study successfully could derive exact estimator of confidence intervals of estimated benefits. However, for RP model, since the model is non-linear, approximation methods such as Talor-Maclaurin expansion, Edgeworth expansion and simulation based methods such as Bootstrap method, Jack-knife Methods and Monte Carlo based method are tested. The accuracy of evaluation of reliability obtained by proposed methods are checked by Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that simulation based methods fit well for enough number of trials. Applicability of the methods are also examined by case studies in the Lake Biwa and Kizu river. Methodology to judge project efficiency with noise is also proposed based on the methods to assess the reliability of benefits measured by use of discreate choice model and a graphical method to help the judgment is also proposed. Less
期刊论文(20)
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会议论文
川除隆広: "個人旅行費用法を用いた木津川河川空間利用便益のリスク分析"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.24(2). 429-432 (2001)
Takahiro Kawabuki:“使用个人旅行成本法对使用木津川河流空间的效益进行风险分析”土木工程规划研究和讲座集第24(2)号(2001)。
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通讯作者:
Kawayoke, T., H. Tatano and N. Okada: "A Study on Reliability Analysis of Economic Assesment of Project"Journal of Infrastructure Planning Review. No.23(1). 223-226 (2000)
Kawayoke, T.、H. Tatano 和 N. Okada:“项目经济评估可靠性分析研究”基础设施规划审查杂志。
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川除隆広: "離散選択モデルを用いた旅行費用法に基づく推計便益の信頼区間推定法"京都大学防災研究年報. No.43,B-2. 45-54 (2000)
Takahiro Kawabuki:“基于使用离散选择模型的旅行成本方法的估计收益的置信区间估计方法”京都大学防灾研究年度报告第43,B-2(2000)。
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    • 资助金额:
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    • 财政年份:
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