A methodology for evaluating reliability of benefit of infrastructure development projects by use of discrete choice models

近年来出版了许多实用的成本效益分析手册，以评估各类基础设施发展项目的效率，以满足日益增长的问责需求。与此同时，公众对自然环境的兴趣与日俱增，不可避免地需要对基础设施建设项目的环境影响进行评估。成本效益分析手册还载有关于项目引起的环境质量变化的效益计量的说明。虽然为了使项目评估更具问责性，评估所测量的效益和成本的可靠性是非常重要的，但这些手册既没有很好地确立评估成本效益分析可靠性的方法，也没有考虑到这一点。本研究致力于发展一种评估环境质量变化基础设施发展项目效益可靠性的方法论，并将其应用于ado…项目。更多的选择判断。用两种不同类型的离散选择模型来描述条件价值调查中受访者在问卷调查中的行为和用户前往自然环境丰富地区的行为，即陈述偏好模型(SP)和显性偏好模型(RP)。这项研究提出了评估基于RP或基于SP的离散选择模型所衡量的收益的可靠性的方法。对于SP模型，研究成功地得到了估计收益的可信区间的精确估计。然而，对于RP模型，由于模型是非线性的，所以对逼近方法如Talor-Maclaurin展开、Edgeworth展开和基于仿真的方法如Bootstrap方法、Jack-Kauer方法和基于蒙特卡罗的方法进行了测试。通过蒙特卡罗仿真验证了所提方法对可靠性评估的准确性。结果表明，基于模拟的方法很好地适用于足够数量的试验。通过对琵琶湖和基祖河的案例研究，验证了这些方法的适用性。在离散选择模型评价效益可靠性方法的基础上，提出了噪声环境下项目效率的评价方法，并提出了一种辅助评价的图解方法。较少

Many manuals of practical cost-benefit analysis to evaluate efficiencies of various types of infrastructure development projects have been published in recent years as to respond to increasing needs for accountability. Simultaneously, growing public interest in natural environment makes inevitable to assess environmental effects of an infrastructure development project. The cost-benefit analysis manuals also contain explanations about benefit measurements of environmental quality change due to the projects. Although it is very important to assess reliability of the measured benefit and cost of projects as to make the project evaluation more accountable, methodology to assess reliability of cost-benefit analysis is neither well established nor considered in these manuals. This study focuses on methodological development of a methodology to assess reliability of benefit of a infrastructure development project which involves environmental quality change and its application for project ado … More ption judgment. Two different types of discrete choice models are used for describing respondents' behavior in questionnaire surveys in contingent valuation surveys and users' behavior to make trip to the area which has rich natural environment, i.e., stated preference model (SP) and revealed preference model (RP), respectively. The study proposed methods to evaluate reliability of benefits measured either by a RP based or a SP based discrete choice model. For SP model, the study successfully could derive exact estimator of confidence intervals of estimated benefits. However, for RP model, since the model is non-linear, approximation methods such as Talor-Maclaurin expansion, Edgeworth expansion and simulation based methods such as Bootstrap method, Jack-knife Methods and Monte Carlo based method are tested. The accuracy of evaluation of reliability obtained by proposed methods are checked by Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that simulation based methods fit well for enough number of trials. Applicability of the methods are also examined by case studies in the Lake Biwa and Kizu river. Methodology to judge project efficiency with noise is also proposed based on the methods to assess the reliability of benefits measured by use of discreate choice model and a graphical method to help the judgment is also proposed. Less