The Economic and Sociological Analysis of Business Recovery in Japan

(1)风险对冲行为是企业复苏的第一步，是防止困难企业最终破产所必需的。然而，对不确定性的强烈感知使其成为不可能，并增加了冒险行为的倾向。冒险行为越强，企业复苏成功的可能性越小。通过行为经济学的方法，我们证明了不确定性对风险对冲行为的负面影响。这一理论启示可以适用于需要复苏的日本企业。因为日本社会的宏观经济结构正在急剧变化，日本人对不确定性有着潜在的强烈感知。宏观经济的不确定性会对经济主体的决策行为产生不利影响。为了防止对经济恢复的负面影响，政府应该通过一些积极的政策来减少不确定性的感知。例如，日本产业振兴公团（IRCJ）的成立就是一个成功的政策范例。(2)我们的研究还试图扩展行为经济学，这是我们分析的基本工具。专著《认知经济学：经济学的新基础》就是我通过这一研究获得的成果。新认知经济学应该超越限制性的行为分析，应用于企业复苏和企业创新的分析。这是一个令人兴奋的未来研究对象。

(1) The risk hedge behavior is necessary for the first step of business recovery to prevent the final bankrupt of difficult firms. However the strong perception of uncertainty makes it impossible and increases the tendency of risk-taking behavior. The possibility of success in business recovery will decrease with the strong risk-taking behavior. By the behavioral economic approach, we demonstrate the negative influence of uncertainty on the risk hedge behavior. This theoretical implication can be applied to the Japanese firms which need business recovery. Because the macroeconomic structure of Japanese society is drastically changing, and Japanese people have potentially strong perception of uncertainty. The macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to have harmful effects on the decision-making behavior of economic agents. For preventing the negative effects on business recovery, the government should decrease the perception of uncertainty by some active policies. For example, the foundation of Industrial Revitalization Corporation Japan (IRCJ) is a good example for a successful policy.(2) Our research also tries to extend behavioral economics which is the fundamental tool for our analysis. The monograph "cognitive economics : the new foundation for economics" is my result obtained by this research. The new cognitive economics should be applied to the analysis of business recovery as well as business innovation beyond the restrictive behavioral analysis. This is an exciting object for future research.