Fertility Decline of Sapporo : Design of System Dynamic Model for Fertility Development in the Government-Designated Major Cities in Japan

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Using periodical and time-series data on fertility, marriage, education and career promotion, in census, vital statistics and other sources, the determinants and the causalities of recent fertility declines in Sapporo were analyzed in comparison with other government-designated major cities in Japan for the purpose to design its system dynamics model. The results clarified : 1) the different net-migration between male and female population in Sapporo causes the lowest sex ratio and the lowest first marriage rate of women at ages 30-34 ; 2) the net-migration rates of both sex are different by marital status.