Fertility Decline of Sapporo : Design of System Dynamic Model for Fertility Development in the Government-Designated Major Cities in Japan

利用人口普查、人口普查、生命统计等资料，利用生育率、婚姻、教育和职业晋升等周期和时间序列数据，分析札幌市近期生育率下降的决定因素和因果关系，并与日本政府指定的其他主要城市进行比较，以期设计札幌市的系统动力学模型。研究结果表明：1)札幌市男女人口净迁移率不同，导致30-34岁女性的性别比和初婚率最低；2)男女的净迁移率因婚姻状况不同而不同。

Using periodical and time-series data on fertility, marriage, education and career promotion, in census, vital statistics and other sources, the determinants and the causalities of recent fertility declines in Sapporo were analyzed in comparison with other government-designated major cities in Japan for the purpose to design its system dynamics model. The results clarified : 1) the different net-migration between male and female population in Sapporo causes the lowest sex ratio and the lowest first marriage rate of women at ages 30-34 ; 2) the net-migration rates of both sex are different by marital status.