Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community
Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community
批准号:
09610195
负责人:
HARA Toshihiko
金额:
$1.34万
依托单位国家:
日本
项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份:
1997
资助国家:
日本
项目状态:
已结题
起止时间:
1997 至 1999
中文摘要
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英文摘要
The purpose of this study is to design a theoretical model for sociocultural and economic problem observed in the depopulation process. Using the system dynamics approach and its new software (Stella Research 5.1.1.J. Version), we developed the model, which are composed of some sectors like population, the industry-employment , social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget.And we simulated :(1) the effects of changing (a) product demand, (b) product price, c material price and (d) standard wage outside of the community, on the industrial performance and the migration of labor force in different scenarios,(2) the impacts of out-migration on social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget,(3)the impacts of social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget in a remote, depopulated rural community, on its out-migration and employers' age structure.(4)the Possible Effects of Political Intervention in Future Developments of Depopulated Rural Community.
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Toshihiko HARA: "Practice in Local Population Projection, Materials for Lectures on Basic Population Problem"Research Association for Population Problems. 2. 135-144 (1998)
原俊彦:“当地人口预测实践,基本人口问题讲座材料”人口问题研究会。
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原 俊彦: "地方分権推進計画が意味するもの-市町村への提言" 北海道自治. 11. 4-17 (1998)
原俊彦:“权力下放促进计划意味着什么 - 对市政当局的建议”北海道自治,11. 4-17 (1998)。
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原 俊彦: "過疎化対策の可能性とその効果-過疎化のシステム・ダイナミックス・モデルの構築 -その5-"北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系. 13(印刷中). (2000)
原俊彦:“人口减少对策的可能性及其效果 - 人口减少的系统动力学模型的构建 - 第 5 部分 -”北海道东海大学人文社会科学学院通报 13(出版中)。
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原 俊彦: "地域の福祉、教育、生活環境、行財政が人口流出に与える影響" 北海道東海大学紀要人文社会科学系. 10(印刷中). (1998)
原俊彦:“地方福利、教育、居住环境以及行政和财政资源对人口流出的影响”北海道东海大学人文社会科学学院通报10(出版中)。
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Toshihiko HARA: "Economic Trends and Local Population Movement -Hokkaido in Recession"Statistics, Japan Statistical Association. 10. 1-6 (1998)
原俊彦:“经济趋势和当地人口流动——衰退中的北海道”统计,日本统计协会。
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Size-structure stability and species coexistence in plant communities
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负责人:HARA Toshihiko
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依托单位:
海外基金