Fertility Decline in Hokkaido -Design of System Dynamics Model for the Declining Regional Fertility

北海道生育率下降——地区生育率下降的系统动力学模型设计

基本信息

批准号：
15530335
负责人：
HARA Toshihiko
金额：
$ 1.6万
依托单位：
Hokkaido Tokai University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15530335/
关键词：
Fertility Decline Regional Demography Hokkaido Simulation System Dynamic Model Low Fertility Urbanization Policy Measures シミュレーション

项目摘要

The purpose of this research was to clarify the trends and determinants of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design its system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors.The researchworks and the important findings were :In 2003, using time-series and periodical data in Census, Vital statistics and other sources, we analyzed trends and demographic determinants of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and identified the demographic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido, compared with other prefectures in Japan. Factor analysis of TFR of Hokkaido showed the low marital fertility and the low proportion of married women cause the lower fertility level than the national standard. It is very unique among Japanese prefectures that both factors have almost same weight on low fertility.In 2004, we analyzed the socio-economic determinants of the age-specific first marriage rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates, and identified the socio-econ … More omic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido. This is done by using multiple linear regression analysis of socio-economic cross section data found in Vital Statistics of Japan, Social Indicators by Prefecture of Statistics Bureau in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and in other sources. Hokkaido showed a relatively high proportion of university graduates among the male population and the concentration of the labor force in the service industry sector. These socio-economic characteristics account for Hokkaido's gap to Japanese standard fertility level.In 2005, we developed the prototype of system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors of fertility decline in Hokkaido. It was the cohort model of fertility and population dynamics in Sapporo, as the core of Hokkaido. This was done by using multiple linear time series regression analysis of the female marital fertility rates and the female first marriage rates with the proportion of high school graduates and the labor force in the service industry sector among the male population. We could successfully reproduce the fertility decline in Sapporo from 1965 to 2000. Less

The purpose of this research was to clarify the trends and determines of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design its system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors.The researchworks and the important findings were :In 2003, using time-series and periodical data in Census, Vital statistics and other sources, we analyzed trends and demographic determiners of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and identified the demographic character of recent fertility与日本其他博览会相比，北海道的下降。北海道TFR的因子分析表明，婚姻生育能力低下，已婚妇女比例的低比例使生育率低于国家标准。在日本首选中，这两个因素在低生育率上的体重几乎具有相同的体重。在2004年，我们分析了特定年龄特定的初婚率和特定年龄的婚姻生育率的社会经济决定者，并确定了社会育儿的……霍克基多（Hokkaido）最近生育能力较高的人。这是通过使用对日本重要统计数据中的社会经济横截面数据的多个线性回归分析，内政和通讯部以及其他来源中统计局的社会指标进行的。北海道表明，男性人口中的大学毕业生比例相对高，服务业行业的劳动力集中。这些社会经济特征解释了北海道与日本标准生育能力水平的差距。在2005年，我们开发了系统动态模型的原型，包括人口统计学，社会文化和经济因素，北海道的生育能力下降。这是萨波罗的生育能力和人口动态的队列模型，作为北海道的核心。这是通过对女性婚姻生育率和女性初婚率的多个线性时间序列回归分析来完成的，高中毕业生的比例和在男性人口中服务业行业的劳动力。从1965年到2000年，我们可以成功地再现萨波罗的生育能力下降。