Fertility Decline in Hokkaido -Design of System Dynamics Model for the Declining Regional Fertility

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The purpose of this research was to clarify the trends and determinants of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design its system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors.The researchworks and the important findings were :In 2003, using time-series and periodical data in Census, Vital statistics and other sources, we analyzed trends and demographic determinants of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and identified the demographic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido, compared with other prefectures in Japan. Factor analysis of TFR of Hokkaido showed the low marital fertility and the low proportion of married women cause the lower fertility level than the national standard. It is very unique among Japanese prefectures that both factors have almost same weight on low fertility.In 2004, we analyzed the socio-economic determinants of the age-specific first marriage rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates, and identified the socio-econ … More omic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido. This is done by using multiple linear regression analysis of socio-economic cross section data found in Vital Statistics of Japan, Social Indicators by Prefecture of Statistics Bureau in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and in other sources. Hokkaido showed a relatively high proportion of university graduates among the male population and the concentration of the labor force in the service industry sector. These socio-economic characteristics account for Hokkaido's gap to Japanese standard fertility level.In 2005, we developed the prototype of system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors of fertility decline in Hokkaido. It was the cohort model of fertility and population dynamics in Sapporo, as the core of Hokkaido. This was done by using multiple linear time series regression analysis of the female marital fertility rates and the female first marriage rates with the proportion of high school graduates and the labor force in the service industry sector among the male population. We could successfully reproduce the fertility decline in Sapporo from 1965 to 2000. Less