Fertility Decline in Hokkaido -Design of System Dynamics Model for the Declining Regional Fertility

本研究旨在厘清北海道生育率下降的趋势及决定因素，并设计包含人口、社会文化及经济因素的系统动力学模型。研究工作及重要发现如下：2003年，利用人口普查、人口统计等资料中的时间序列及周期数据，分析总和生育率(TFR)的趋势及人口决定因素，并与日本其他县比较，找出近期北海道生育率下降的人口学特征。对北海道总生育率的因素分析表明，婚姻生育率低、已婚妇女比例低是导致生育水平低于国家标准的原因。这在日本各县中是非常独特的，这两个因素对低生育率的权重几乎相同。2004年，我们分析了年龄特定的初婚率和年龄特定的婚姻生育率的社会经济决定因素，并确定了社会经济…北海道最近生育率下降的更典型特征。这是通过对社会经济横截面数据进行多元线性回归分析来实现的，这些数据见于《日本生命统计》、内务通信省各县统计局的《社会指标》以及其他来源。北海道显示，大学毕业生在男性人口中的比例相对较高，劳动力集中在服务业部门。这些社会经济特征解释了北海道与日本标准生育率水平的差距。2005年，我们开发了包括人口、社会文化和经济因素在内的北海道生育率下降的系统动力学模型原型。这是作为北海道核心的札幌市生育率和人口动态的队列模型。这是通过对男性人口中女性婚姻生育率和女性初婚率与高中毕业生和服务业劳动力比例的多元线性时间序列回归分析来完成的。我们可以成功地复制札幌市1965年至2000年的生育率下降情况。较少

The purpose of this research was to clarify the trends and determinants of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design its system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors.The researchworks and the important findings were :In 2003, using time-series and periodical data in Census, Vital statistics and other sources, we analyzed trends and demographic determinants of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and identified the demographic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido, compared with other prefectures in Japan. Factor analysis of TFR of Hokkaido showed the low marital fertility and the low proportion of married women cause the lower fertility level than the national standard. It is very unique among Japanese prefectures that both factors have almost same weight on low fertility.In 2004, we analyzed the socio-economic determinants of the age-specific first marriage rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates, and identified the socio-econ … More omic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido. This is done by using multiple linear regression analysis of socio-economic cross section data found in Vital Statistics of Japan, Social Indicators by Prefecture of Statistics Bureau in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and in other sources. Hokkaido showed a relatively high proportion of university graduates among the male population and the concentration of the labor force in the service industry sector. These socio-economic characteristics account for Hokkaido's gap to Japanese standard fertility level.In 2005, we developed the prototype of system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors of fertility decline in Hokkaido. It was the cohort model of fertility and population dynamics in Sapporo, as the core of Hokkaido. This was done by using multiple linear time series regression analysis of the female marital fertility rates and the female first marriage rates with the proportion of high school graduates and the labor force in the service industry sector among the male population. We could successfully reproduce the fertility decline in Sapporo from 1965 to 2000. Less