Research on the medical prediction of behavior of Non-Residential casualties around Shinjuku Station, and its countermeasures, in the case of Metropolitan Tokyo Earthquakes.

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The aim of the study is to consider the providing front line disaster medical service bases according to the estimation of the number of non-residential casualties around Shinjuku station in the case of earthquake disaster which is supposed be happened in Tokyo Metropolitan areas. Surveys were carried out on the number of pedestrians walking in the areas of west and east gates of the station and found out that 4-6,000 in the west and 2-10,000 in the east. According to the format of estimating injured, number of casualties in the west is estimated 80 stable in different time frames of the day, but in the east 35 in the morning, 85 in the afternoon and 100 in the evening. The similar estimation was carried out inside of buildings. The questionnaire surveys were also carried out to pedestrians in the west about the behavior on the day of March 11th 2011 East Japan earthquake. In conclusion, 67 injured in each 13 possible front line disaster medical service bases are estimated. Based on the distribution of Injured, 8 in the west and 5 in the east are needed.