Cost Benefit Analysis for Policy Measures against Illegal Parking of Bicycles

本研究分析了各种政策措施对减少东京火车站附近非法停放自行车的影响。我们研究的政策措施是：（1）降低停车费，（2）拆除自行车，（3）扩大停车位，以减少拥堵。研究的最终目的是对这三个政策变量进行成本效益分析。在计量分析中，我们不仅采用了普通的最小二乘法，还采用了Logit和Tobit模型进行分析，对于违法停车猖獗的2001年数据，三个变量均具有统计学显著性。但当2010年的数据，当非法停车不再猖獗，停车位的空置率是唯一的统计意义和政策相关的变量。分析结果显示，增加自行车停车位是减少自行车违章停放的最有效措施。

The present study analyzes the effects of various policy measures upon reducing illegal parking of bicycles near train stations in Tokyo. The policy measures we study are: (1)reducing parking fees, (2)removal of bicycles, (3) expanding the parking place to reduce congestion. The final aim of the study is to conduct cost benefit analysis on those three policy variables. In an econometric analysis, we use not only ordinary least squares method but also Logit and Tobit model analysis.For the data of 2001, when illegal parking was rampant, all three variables are statistically significant. But when the data of 2010, when illegal parking is no longer rampant, the vacancy rate of the parking place was the only statistically significant and policy relevant variable. This analysis revealed that the most effective policy for reducing the illegal bicycle parking is to expand parking place.