Quantitative Evaluation of Nation Stability: An Empirical Study in the Period before/after the End of Cold War

本研究使用上限和下限数据包络分析（DEA）测量了世界上97个国家的国家稳定性，并提出了DEA/Malmquist指数（DEA/MI）方法来观察1981-2004年期间，即冷战结束（1989年）前后24年的国家稳定性变化。我们重点分析了统一国家（德国）和分裂国家（苏联、捷克斯洛伐克和南斯拉夫）。对于分裂中出现的很多后继国家，我们在2004年对其稳定性进行了评估和排名。

This study measured the nation stability of 97 countries in the world using both upper- and lower-bound data envelopment analyses (DEA), and presented a DEA/Malmquist Index (DEA/MI) methodology for viewing its shift in the period 1981-2004, i.e., for 24 years before/after the end of cold war (1989). We analyzed focusing on a unified country (Germany) and split countries (Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia). For a lot of successor countries emerged from the splits, we evaluated and ranked their stability in 2004.