The administration's stability and the possibility of a coup in North Korea

朝鲜政府的稳定性和政变的可能性

• 批准号: 23653038
• 负责人: MIYAMOTO Satoru
• 金额: $ 0.25万
• 依托单位: Seigakuin University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-23653038/
• 关键词: 政治学; 政軍関係; 北朝鮮; 韓国; アフリカ; クーデター; 安全保障

This paper examines the possibility a coup occurring in North Korea. It considers how a government’s stability, indicated by that government’s division of and control of its military, reduces the possibility of a coup. The paper looks first at examples of African nations and of South Korea, and then turns to the particular case of North Korea. As the North Korean government maintains an even higher level of control and division of its military then the other countries studied, this paper concludes that there is low probability of coup occurring in North Korea.

本文探讨了朝鲜发生政变的可能性。它考虑了政府的稳定性（通过政府对其军队的划分和控制来体现）如何减少政变的可能性。本文首先考察了非洲国家和韩国的例子，然后转向朝鲜的具​​体案例。由于朝鲜政府对其军队的控制和划分程度比其他国家的研究还要高，因此本文得出的结论是，朝鲜发生政变的可能性很低。