Predicting longitudinal patterns of change in adolescent polytobacco use: A socio-ecological framework

项目摘要 由于绝大多数烟草使用者是在青春期或青年期开始吸烟的，因此必须对吸烟者的特征进行描述。 在这一发展时期的使用模式。对于这两个年龄组来说，使用替代烟草的增加 产品（例如，电子烟、水烟/水管），以及使用两种或两种以上烟草产品 同时（例如，烟草使用）。然而，很少有研究探讨这些模式的单一 或多烟草使用从青春期早期到成年期的变化，甚至更少的工作 他全面考察了可能预测这一变化的众多因素。拟议项目寻求 通过使用以变量和以人为中心的分析技术来填补这些空白， 从社会生态框架的纵向变化模式和相关的前因。使用 烟草与健康的人口评估（PATH），该项目将 a）研究从青少年早期（12岁）到20岁的单一烟草产品使用的轨迹和相关预测因素。 成年初显期（22岁）使用变量中心的潜在增长模型，B）检查过渡到和退出 混合烟草使用类别，以及这些类别的预测因素，从青春期早期（12岁）到 使用以人为中心的潜在过渡分析的新兴成年期（22岁），以及c）检查相互作用 在个体之间（例如，使用动机;寻求感觉）、人际（例如，父建模和规则）， 和上下文（例如，地理位置）因素预测单一烟草产品使用轨迹， 烟草使用的转变。这些分析不仅将提供关于 不同的使用模式随着时间的推移的相对稳定性，而且模式之间的差异， 基于对多方面和相互作用的前因的考虑，确定保护性与风险性。因此，委员会认为， 我们的建议涉及食品和药物管理局的研究重点，即“识别和解释- 烟草使用模式的人与人之间的差异和人与人之间的变化，包括.多种烟草使用 产品（即，在同一时间段内使用多种产品以及在多种产品之间切换）"。 从长远来看，该项目可以为旨在预防或停止艾滋病毒/艾滋病的循证公共卫生工作提供信息。 烟草使用的早期阶段。

Project Summary As the large majority of tobacco users initiate in adolescence or young adulthood, it is important to characterize patterns of use across this period of development. For both age groups, a rise in the use of alternative tobacco products (e.g., electronic cigarettes, hookah/waterpipes), as well as the use of two or more tobacco products concurrently (e.g., polytobacco use) has been noted. Yet little work has examined how these patterns of single or polytobacco use change from early adolescence into emerging adulthood, and even less work has examined comprehensively the multitude of factors that might predict this change. The proposed project seeks to fill these gaps by using a combination of variable- and person-centered analytic techniques to examine longitudinal patterns of change and associated antecedents from a socio-ecological framework. Using a nationally-representative dataset, the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH), this project will a) examine trajectories and related predictors of single tobacco product use from early adolescence (age 12) to emerging adulthood (age 22) using variable-centered latent growth models, b) examine transitions into and out of polytobacco use classes, as well as predictors of these classes, from early adolescence (age 12) to emerging adulthood (age 22) using person-centered latent transition analysis, and c) examine interactions among individual (e.g., motives for use; sensation seeking), interpersonal (e.g., parent modeling and rules), and contextual (e.g., geographic location) factors in predicting trajectories of single tobacco product use and transitions in polytobacco use. These analyses will not only provide crucial information about the emergence and relative stability of different use patterns over time, but also differences between patterns that are protective versus risky based on a consideration of multifaceted and interacting antecedents. Consequently, our proposal addresses the Food and Drug Administration's research priority to “identify and explain between- persons differences and within-person changes in tobacco use patterns, including…polyuse of tobacco products (i.e., use of multiple products within the same time-period and switching between multiple products)”. In the long-term, this project can inform evidenced-based public health efforts aimed at preventing or ceasing tobacco use in the earliest stages of use.