Predicting longitudinal patterns of change in adolescent polytobacco use: A socio-ecological framework

项目摘要 由于绝大多数吸烟者是在青春期或青年时期开始吸烟的，因此重要的是要确定 在这一发展阶段的使用模式。对于这两个年龄段的人来说，替代烟草的使用增加 产品(如电子烟、水烟/水烟)以及两种或两种以上烟草产品的使用 同时(例如，多种烟草的使用)已经被注意到。然而，很少有研究研究这些单身模式是如何 或多种烟草的使用从青春期早期转变为成年初期，而更少的工作已经 全面考察了可能预测这一变化的多种因素。拟议的项目旨在 通过使用以变量为中心和以人为中心的分析技术的组合来填补这些空白 来自社会生态框架的变化的纵向模式和相关的前因。使用 具有全国代表性的数据集，烟草与健康人口评估(PATH)，该项目将 A)审查从青春期早期(12岁)到年龄段单一烟草产品使用的轨迹和相关预测因素 新兴成年期(22岁)使用以变量为中心的潜在增长模型，b)检查进入和离开的过渡 从青春期早期(12岁)到多用途烟草使用类别，以及这些类别的预测因子 使用以人为中心的潜伏转变分析，以及c)检查互动 在个人(例如，使用动机；感觉寻求)、人际(例如，父母模式和规则)之间， 和上下文(例如，地理位置)因素来预测单一烟草产品的使用轨迹 多种烟草使用的转变。这些分析不仅将提供有关出现的关键信息 以及不同使用模式随时间的相对稳定性，以及 基于对多方面和相互作用的前因的考虑，保护性与风险性。因此， 我们的建议涉及食品和药物管理局的研究优先事项，即“确定和解释- 烟草使用模式的人与人之间的差异和变化，包括…烟草的多重使用 产品(即在同一时间段内使用多个产品并在多个产品之间切换)“。 从长远来看，该项目可以为旨在预防或停止以证据为基础的公共卫生努力提供信息 在使用的最早阶段使用烟草。

Project Summary As the large majority of tobacco users initiate in adolescence or young adulthood, it is important to characterize patterns of use across this period of development. For both age groups, a rise in the use of alternative tobacco products (e.g., electronic cigarettes, hookah/waterpipes), as well as the use of two or more tobacco products concurrently (e.g., polytobacco use) has been noted. Yet little work has examined how these patterns of single or polytobacco use change from early adolescence into emerging adulthood, and even less work has examined comprehensively the multitude of factors that might predict this change. The proposed project seeks to fill these gaps by using a combination of variable- and person-centered analytic techniques to examine longitudinal patterns of change and associated antecedents from a socio-ecological framework. Using a nationally-representative dataset, the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH), this project will a) examine trajectories and related predictors of single tobacco product use from early adolescence (age 12) to emerging adulthood (age 22) using variable-centered latent growth models, b) examine transitions into and out of polytobacco use classes, as well as predictors of these classes, from early adolescence (age 12) to emerging adulthood (age 22) using person-centered latent transition analysis, and c) examine interactions among individual (e.g., motives for use; sensation seeking), interpersonal (e.g., parent modeling and rules), and contextual (e.g., geographic location) factors in predicting trajectories of single tobacco product use and transitions in polytobacco use. These analyses will not only provide crucial information about the emergence and relative stability of different use patterns over time, but also differences between patterns that are protective versus risky based on a consideration of multifaceted and interacting antecedents. Consequently, our proposal addresses the Food and Drug Administration's research priority to “identify and explain between- persons differences and within-person changes in tobacco use patterns, including…polyuse of tobacco products (i.e., use of multiple products within the same time-period and switching between multiple products)”. In the long-term, this project can inform evidenced-based public health efforts aimed at preventing or ceasing tobacco use in the earliest stages of use.