Forecasting live fuel moisture content, the on/off switch for forest fire

预测现场燃料水分含量，森林火灾的开关

• 批准号: LP190100436
• 负责人: Dr Rachael Nolan
• 金额: $ 36.9万
• 依托单位: Western Sydney University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Linkage Projects
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2020-10-31 至 2024-10-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/LP190100436
• 关键词: Forecasting; live; fuel; moisture; content

Dry forest fuels are a precursor of large bushfires. This research aims to develop, for the first time, a model to reliably forecast the moisture content of live fuels (e.g. the foliage and fine branches of shrubs and trees). This will be achieved by combining (i) satellite-derived estimates of live fuel moisture content, (ii) forecasts of soil moisture, and (iii) plant physiological responses to soil dryness. Forecasts of live fuel moisture content will deliver an early warning system of the risk of bushfires. These forecasts will also facilitate improved planning of prescribed burns: if fuels are too dry there is a risk of burns escaping, conversely, if fuels are too wet there is a risk that burns will fail to meet objectives.

干燥的森林燃料是大型森林火灾的前兆。这项研究旨在首次开发一种模型，以可靠地预测活燃料的水分含量（例如灌木和树木的树叶和细枝）。这将通过以下三个方面的结合来实现：（一）从卫星获得的对活性燃料含水量的估计，（二）对土壤湿度的预测，以及（三）植物对土壤干燥的生理反应。对燃料含水量的预测将提供一个预警系统，以预警发生火灾的风险。这些预报还将有助于改进规定燃烧的规划：如果燃料太干，就有可能发生燃烧逃逸，相反，如果燃料太湿，就有可能发生燃烧无法达到目标的情况。