The value of model complexity for fisheries management

模型复杂性对渔业管理的价值

• 批准号: DE190101416
• 负责人: Dr Matthew Holden
• 金额: $ 23.14万
• 依托单位: The University of Queensland
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Early Career Researcher Award
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2019-07-03 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DE190101416
• 关键词: value; model; complexity; fisheries; management

This project aims to quantify the benefits of using dynamic multi-species models for harvest decisions in the fishing industry. More than 99.8 per cent of fisheries are assessed using single-species models. Since fishers harvest multiple interacting species, not considering these interactions can lead to negative outcomes that reduce food security, eliminate human livelihoods, decrease economic production, and harm the environment. The project is expected to provide guidance for fisheries scientists on when to use multi-species models for management, improved decision making capacity to reduce the risk of fishery collapse, a new method for dynamic model validation in the face of limited data, and enhanced collaboration between modellers and applied agencies. By reducing the risk of ecosystem collapse through better use of complex and simple models. The project will provide major benefits for the environment, humans, and the economy, at national and global scales.

该项目旨在量化使用动态多物种模型进行渔业捕捞决策的好处。99.8%以上的渔业是使用单一鱼种模型进行评估的。由于渔民捕捞多种相互作用的物种，不考虑这些相互作用可能会导致负面结果，降低粮食安全，消除人类生计，减少经济生产，并损害环境。该项目预计将为渔业科学家提供指导，指导他们何时使用多物种模型进行管理，提高决策能力以减少渔业崩溃的风险，在有限的数据面前提供动态模型验证的新方法，并加强建模者和应用机构之间的合作。通过更好地使用复杂和简单的模型来减少生态系统崩溃的风险。该项目将在国家和全球范围内为环境、人类和经济带来重大利益。