MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF IDEAS

思想演变的数学模型

• 批准号: 3377501
• 负责人: DAVID P FAN
• 金额: $ 12.07万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-07-01 至 1990-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3377501
• 关键词: attitude; behavior prediction; belief; computer data analysis; computer simulation; informatics; mass information media; mathematical model; persuasion; public opinion; social change

The mathematical theory called ideodynamics describes the impact of persuasive messages on a population. For six issues, computer projections using ideodynamic equations have successfully correlated public opinion with Associated Press dispatches analyzed by computer. In addition to changes in opinion, the theory also predicts changes in habits. So far, the emphasis has been on changes in opinions and habits for one issue. The proposed work will extend the model to a variety of conditions where persuasive messages cannot be measured directly and where the public responds to persuasive messages for several different issues simultaneously. All forms of the model not yet applied to actual data will be explored by computer simulation to develop the programs necessary for data analysis and to test the plausibility of the theory. The text analysis developed previously will be rigorously tested to examine the ability of different people to construct the dictionaries and rules for the analysis, to determine the minimum amount of test needed for accurate opinion calculations, to explore whether most national newspapers, wire services, and magazines have approximately the same news structure, etc. Studies of media influence on opinion will be extended from the United States to Britain and France.

数学理论称为ideodynamics描述了 说服性信息对人群的影响。 对于六个问题， 使用理想动力学方程的计算机投影 成功地将公众舆论与美联社联系起来 由计算机分析的调度。 除了改变 此外，该理论还预测了习惯的变化。 到目前为止，重点一直放在观念和习惯的改变上 一个问题。 拟议的工作将扩展该模型， 各种情况下，有说服力的信息不能 直接衡量，公众对有说服力的 同时处理多个不同的问题。 尚未应用于实际数据的所有形式的模型将被 通过计算机模拟探索开发方案 必要的数据分析和测试的可扩展性， 理论 先前开发的文本分析将经过严格测试， 考察不同的人构建 字典和规则进行分析，确定最小值 准确的意见计算所需的测试量， 探索是否大多数全国性的报纸，有线服务， 杂志具有大致相同的新闻结构等。 媒体对舆论影响的研究将从 美国对英国和法国。