Geospatial restructuring of industrial trade (GRIT): integration of secondary data to model geospatial economic responses to fuel price

工业贸易地理空间重组 (GRIT)：整合二手数据以模拟地理空间经济对燃料价格的反应

• 批准号: ES/K004409/1
• 负责人: Alison Heppenstall
• 金额: $ 15.78万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FK004409%2F1
• 关键词: Geospatial; restructuring; industrial; trade; GRIT

During the 21st century an energy revolution must take place to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Understanding the impact this revolution will have on the cost of goods and services is a vital challenge, but beset by speculation. However, we can be confident that efforts to decarbonise the economy, confront peak oil, and address fuel security, will results in substantive shifts in the price of energy. How will changes in future fuel prices impact upon economic activity across the UK? Which economic activities will experience the greatest pressure from rising fuel prices, and so which locations will have an economy most or least able to cope with future fuel prices? This project will create a new set of data, built on existing sources, to help generate answers and consider potential solutions. By working with business throughout, it will help strike a balance between a strategic look at the UK's spatial economy and understanding the challenges UK businesses will face. In Britain, over four million businesses rely on a web of connections to other establishments, as well as to their staff and customers. Each of these connections has its own cost: it takes energy and time to move goods across space. What will happen to that web if energy and fuel costs continue to increase? It is surprisingly hard to find answers based on data and analysis - in large part because data is so sparse. A great deal is known about the UK's economy at the national level, but little about how trade moves internally, at the regional scale and below. Lacking good data, it is difficult to investigate the larger picture. We do not know if business will respond to fuel price increases by focussing more on local markets, or if rising transport costs will be seen as an inevitable part of economic globalisation. Some argue that moving goods is such a small percentage of overall production costs, it hardly matters and can be ignored. Businesses are doing what they can to plan, given the evident uncertainties, but in using data they acquire from their own operations, their view is necessarily narrow. This project will therefore attempt to provide a more strategic, national overview of trade flows in the UK under changing fuel price scenarios. We will address economic activity disaggregated into 110 classes (SIC 2007) for the UK in 133 regions (NUTS 3 areas). To do this we will use the Business Structure Database that describes almost every business in the UK, and the national level 'Supply and Use' tables to develop trade flows between industrial sectors within the UK at a fine-grained geospatial level. This offers an exciting opportunity to develop new insights into the UK's spatial economy by creating a more detailed picture of the UK's economy than has previously been possible. We will use the resulting data to examine an important question: how will changing fuel costs alter the UK's economy spatially? This will be done at a broad level for the UK, and in detail for one particular sector, to prove the methodology. We expect the project data to be significant in providing insights into how the UK's economy changes spatially. This is very important to a range of critical activities, such as of infrastructure and utilities planning, and provision of housing and social services, as well as understanding the carbon emission implications of economic restructuring across the UK.

在21世纪，必须进行一场能源革命，以避免气候变化的最坏影响。了解这场革命将对商品和服务成本产生的影响是一个至关重要的挑战，但受到投机的困扰。然而，我们可以相信，经济脱碳、应对石油峰值和解决燃料安全问题的努力将导致能源价格发生实质性变化。未来燃料价格的变化将如何影响英国的经济活动？哪些经济活动将受到燃料价格上涨的最大压力，因此哪些地区的经济最有能力或最没有能力科普未来的燃料价格？该项目将在现有来源的基础上创建一组新的数据，以帮助生成答案并考虑潜在的解决方案。通过与企业合作，它将有助于在英国空间经济的战略眼光和了解英国企业将面临的挑战之间取得平衡。在英国，超过400万家企业依赖于与其他企业、员工和客户的联系网络。每一种连接都有其自身的成本：在空间中运输货物需要耗费能量和时间。如果能源和燃料成本继续增加，网络会发生什么？根据数据和分析找到答案是非常困难的，这在很大程度上是因为数据是如此的稀少。人们对英国国家层面的经济了解很多，但对内部、区域及以下层面的贸易如何流动却知之甚少。由于缺乏可靠的数据，很难对更大的情况进行调查。我们不知道企业是否会通过更多地关注当地市场来应对燃料价格上涨，或者运输成本的上升是否会被视为经济全球化的一个不可避免的部分。有些人认为，货物运输在整个生产成本中所占的比例很小，几乎不重要，可以忽略不计。鉴于明显的不确定性，企业正在尽其所能进行计划，但在使用从自己的运营中获取的数据时，他们的观点必然是狭隘的。因此，本项目将试图提供一个更具战略性的，在不断变化的燃料价格情景下，在英国的贸易流量的国家概况。我们将在133个地区（NUTS 3个地区）为英国解决110类（SIC 2007）的经济活动。为了做到这一点，我们将使用业务结构数据库，它描述了英国几乎每一个企业，以及国家层面的“供应和使用”表，以开发英国工业部门之间的贸易流在一个细粒度的地理空间水平。这提供了一个令人兴奋的机会，通过创建一个比以前更详细的英国经济的图片，开发新的见解到英国的空间经济。我们将使用由此产生的数据来研究一个重要的问题：如何改变燃料成本改变英国的经济空间？这将在英国广泛的层面上进行，并在一个特定的部门详细，以证明方法。我们预计，该项目的数据将在提供有关英国经济空间变化的见解方面发挥重要作用。这对一系列关键活动非常重要，例如基础设施和公用事业规划，提供住房和社会服务，以及了解英国经济结构调整的碳排放影响。

项目成果

Simplifying the interpretation of continuous time models for spatio-temporal networks

• DOI: 10.1007/s10109-020-00345-z
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: Journal of Geographical Systems
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: S. C. Gadd;A. Comber;M. Gilthorpe;Keiran Suchak;A. Heppenstall

Creating Realistic Synthetic Populations at Varying Spatial Scales: A Comparative Critique of Population Synthesis Techniques

• DOI: 10.18564/jasss.1909
• 发表时间: 2012-01
• 期刊: J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul.
• 作者: K. Harland;A. Heppenstall;Dianna M. Smith;M. Birkin

Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

• DOI: 10.1111/tgis.12027
• 发表时间: 2013-10-01
• 期刊: TRANSACTIONS IN GIS
• 影响因子: 2.4
• 作者: Heppenstall, Alison J.;Harland, Kirk;Olner, Dan
• 通讯作者: Olner, Dan

"Space, the Final Frontier": How Good are Agent-Based Models at Simulating Individuals and Space in Cities?

• DOI: 10.3390/systems4010009
• 发表时间: 2016-03-01
• 期刊: SYSTEMS
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Heppenstall, Alison;Malleson, Nick;Crooks, Andrew
• 通讯作者: Crooks, Andrew

Developing an Individual-level Geodemographic Classification

• DOI: 10.1007/s12061-017-9233-7
• 发表时间: 2018-09-01
• 期刊: APPLIED SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND POLICY
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Burns, Luke;See, Linda;Birkin, Mark
• 通讯作者: Birkin, Mark