THE 2015 NORTHERN IRELAND GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY: MEASURING POLITICAL CHANGE IN A POWER-SHARING POLITY

2015年北方爱尔兰大选调查将确定该地区独特政治制度中政党选择和政治优先事项的现代基础。假设目前在下议院通过的立法将北方爱尔兰议会选举推迟一年至2016年，2015年威斯敏斯特的竞争具有重要意义，因为它为北方爱尔兰的选民提供了四年来第一次在非欧洲选举中表达他们政治偏好的机会。2015年的选举将在《圣安德鲁斯协议》签署近十年后举行。《圣安德鲁斯协议》是一个由民主统一党和新芬党领导的权力分享下放政府，意义深远。这产生了更大的政治稳定，但宗派分裂仍然相当大，证明了一系列问题，如维持和平墙，隔离教育，低比例的“异族通婚”和旗帜抗议。持不同政见的共和党人仍然构成残余的安全威胁，自2007年以来，（主要是低级别的）枪击和爆炸事件。在精英阶层政治关系的解冻中，这项2015年选举调查将测试选民中英国新教统一派和爱尔兰天主教民族主义者之间的严重宗派分歧有多大（反映在欧洲宗教和投票偏好之间的最紧密联系上）已经开始愈合。是否有明显的证据表明选民在投票模式上超越了传统的集团关系？这种运动，如果可以察觉的话，是跨越鸿沟，还是“中途”，进入不结盟的政治中心（例如联盟或绿色政党）？调查还将审查那些留在其族裔集团内的人的理由，并探讨这两个主要集团内政党选择的基础。它还将测试在共同未来的曙光中，“英国人”或“爱尔兰人”身份的平等合法性在多大程度上被共同的“北方爱尔兰人”身份所取代。选举调查将调查选民对北方爱尔兰行政机构的表现的看法，并评估选民对进一步下放权力的愿望。2010年，治安和司法权力从威斯敏斯特移交给北方爱尔兰行政部门，但随后没有更多的管辖权，本次调查将评估对这些管辖权的需求程度。调查将评估选民对各政党在一系列地方和国家政治问题上的看法，并将研究选民如何评价各政党在每个主要政策领域的表现，包括宪法问题、经济、教育、卫生、社会发展和福利。调查将揭示这些问题中哪些是政党选择的决定因素。在多大程度上，“面包和黄油”的非宪法问题取代了旧的宪法关注的选举突出性？此外，这项研究还将确定选民对一系列冲突后问题的看法和偏好，如真相与和解委员会、对受害者的支助、司法系统的改革以及通过拆除“和平墙”和“混合”学校等方式实现北方爱尔兰社会的融合。除了与冲突有关的问题和经济问题，2015年选举调查将评估有争议的“社会自由主义”的各个方面对选民的重要性及其观点。这些措施包括堕胎权利（第一个堕胎咨询诊所在N。爱尔兰在2012年，但没有一个主要政党支持延长适用于英国其他地方的1967年堕胎法）和同性恋婚姻，这是由北方爱尔兰最大的政党，DUP反对，是一个存在重大党派间分歧的主题。该项目将根据大量有代表性的样本，产生一个重要的调查数据集，供社会科学家、决策者和媒体使用。

The 2015 Northern Ireland General Election survey will identify the modern basis of party choices and political priorities in the region's distinctive political system. Assuming the passing of legislation currently before the Commons to delay the Northern Ireland Assembly election by one year to 2016, the 2015 Westminster contest is significant in offering the first opportunity for Northern Ireland's voters to express their political preferences, in a non-European election, for four years. The 2015 contest will take place nearly a decade after the St Andrews Agreement, the far-reaching formation of a power-sharing devolved government headed by the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein. This has produced far greater political stability, but sectarian division remains considerable, evidenced by a range of issues such as the maintenance of peace walls, segregated education, a low rate of 'intermarriage' and flags protests. There remains a residual security threat posed by dissident republicans, responsible for over 550 (mainly low level) shooting and bombing incidents since 2007.Amid the thawing of elite-level political relationships, this 2015 election survey will test how far the acute sectarian divide between Protestant-British Unionists and Catholic-Irish nationalists amongst the electorate (reflected in the closest alignment between religion and voting preference in Europe) has begun to heal. Is there significant evidence of electors moving beyond traditional bloc affiliations in voting patterns? Is this movement, if perceptible, across the divide, or 'halfway', into the non-aligned political centre (e.g. the Alliance or Green Parties)? The survey will also examine the rationale of those who remain within their ethnic blocs and explore the basis of party choice inside those two main blocs. It will also test the extent to which 'British' or 'Irish' identities, the equal legitimacy of which were acknowledged in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, have been supplanted by a common 'Northern Irish' identity, amid the dawning of a shared future.The election survey will examine voters' views of the performance of the Northern Ireland Executive and appraise the desires of the electorate for further devolution. The transfer of policing and justice powers from Westminster to the Northern Ireland Executive in 2010 has not been followed by more competences and this survey will assess the degree of demand for such. It will assess where voters place the political parties on a range of local and national political issues and will examine how voters rate the performance of parties on each major policy area, including constitutional questions, the economy, education, health, social development and welfare. The survey will reveal which of these issues are determinants of party choice. To what extent have 'bread and butter' non-constitutional issues displaced older constitutional concerns in terms of electoral salience?Additionally, the study will ascertain the electorate's views and preferences on a range of post-conflict issues, as a truth and reconciliation commission, support for victims, reform of the judicial system and the integration of Northern Ireland society via, e.g. the removal of 'peace walls' and 'mixed' schooling. Beyond conflict-related and economic issues, the 2015 election survey will evaluate the importance to the electorate - and its views on - various aspects of contested 'social liberalism'. These include abortion rights (the first abortion advisory clinic opened in N. Ireland in 2012, but none of the main parties supports the extension of the 1967 Abortion Act applicable elsewhere in Britain) and gay marriage, which is opposed by the largest party in Northern Ireland, the DUP, and is a subject on which there have been significant inter-party differences. Based upon a large representative sample , the project will yield a vital survey dataset for use by social scientists, policy-makers and media.