Beyond Unionism and Nationalism in Northern Ireland: Electors, Voters and Party Members

北爱尔兰的政治一直以统一派和民族主义派的分歧为框架。在权力下放的行政和议会中，统一派和民族派之间的权力分享是强制性的。然而，根据2019年ESRC北爱尔兰选举研究，40%的北爱尔兰选民表示他们既不是统一主义者也不是民族主义者，相比之下，只有27%的人认为自己是统一主义者，25%的人认为自己是民族主义者。尽管如此，我们对这些“两者都不是”的人知之甚少，比如他们是谁，为什么他们拒绝统一主义和民族主义，他们投票或弃权的原因，以及他们对非统一主义和非民族主义政党的支持程度。该项目旨在通过调查那些既不是统一主义者也不是民族主义者的选民，并对不结盟集团的主要代表联盟党（北爱尔兰政府中唯一的不结盟政党）的成员资格进行研究，来纠正这些知识差距。该项目涉及广泛的人口统计和态度调查，a)宣布他们既不是统一主义者也不是民族主义者的选民，以了解他们的背景和理由；b)通过对该党同意的全体党员的调查，检查那些在最大的政党联盟内致力于拒绝统一主义和民族主义的人的观点，既不属于统一主义也不属于民族主义。通过分析非选民、选民和避开联合主义和民族主义的党员的人口统计和观点，我们将更好地了解北爱尔兰尚未得到充分研究的第三个传统，这个传统在数量上最大，但研究最少。我们将分析几种不同类型的拒绝联合主义和民族主义的选民：a)因为这种拒绝而拒绝参与选举制度的非选民。b)支持联盟党或其他较小的非统一主义/非民族主义政党（如绿党）的选民，因为他们既不是统一主义政党也不是民族主义政党和/或因为他们支持该特定政党的政策；C)非统一主义者和非民族主义者的选民，尽管如此，由于各种原因，如战术或低偏好投票，他们还是投票给统一主义者或民族主义者政党。d)联盟成员中现有的统一主义者和民族主义者二元对立的坚定反对者，评估该党如何尝试：1)容纳统一主义者和民族主义者之间的妥协；2)克服北爱尔兰的分歧；3)了解党员支持哪些无视种族的政策，以减少宗派分歧。这是一个重要的项目，因为：a)我们需要了解非民族选民和党员如何看待他们被要求参与的民族政党制度。b)北爱尔兰的中间地带很大，不太可能消失。在2019年的欧洲和威斯敏斯特选举中，联盟的选票份额分别增长了11%和9%。该党在这些选举中的得票率为19%（欧洲）和17%（威斯敏斯特），创下该党的历史新高。联盟党已经成为北爱尔兰第三大支持率最高的政党，仅次于民主统一党和新芬党。c)在耶稣受难日协议（Good Friday Agreement）允许的未来关于北爱尔兰宪法未来的边界投票中，非统一党和非民族主义选民是“摇摆不定”的选民，他们需要由统一主义者或民族主义者赢得。D)对中间派及其主要政党所知甚少。除了北爱尔兰的两大传统外，目前还没有关于选民或政党的长篇学术研究，只有一本关于联盟的活动人士专著，只有三篇关于该组织的期刊文章。这种材料的缺乏凸显了一个更广泛的研究问题：对种族分裂社会的关注主要是他们的种族政党，而不是宗派分裂之外的组织。

Politics in Northern Ireland has always been framed upon unionist versus nationalist divisions. Power-sharing between unionists and nationalists is mandatory in the devolved Executive and Assembly. Yet, according to the 2019 ESRC Northern Ireland election study, 40% of Northern Ireland's electors say they are neither unionist nor nationalist, compared to only 27% identifying as unionist and 25% as nationalist. Despite this, remarkably little is known about those 'neithers', in terms of who they are, why they reject unionism and nationalism, their reasons for voting or abstaining, and the depth of their backing for non-unionist and non-nationalist parties. This project aims to rectify these knowledge gaps by surveying those electors who identify as neither unionist nor nationalist and undertaking a membership study of the main representatives of the non-aligned grouping, the Alliance Party, the only non-aligned party represented in Northern Ireland's government. The project involves an extensive demographic and attitudinal survey of a) electors declaring they are neither unionist or nationalist, to understand their background and their rationale and b) to examine the views of those committed to the rejection of unionism and nationalism within the largest party, Alliance, not aligned to either unionism or nationalism, via a survey of the entire party membership to which the party has agreed.By analysing the demography and views of non-voters, voters and party members who eschew unionism and nationalism, we will achieve a far better understanding of Northern Ireland's understudied third tradition, numerically its largest but the least researched. We will analyse several different types of elector rejecting unionism and nationalism: a) the non-voter who refuses to participate in the electoral system because of that rejection. b) the voter who supports Alliance, or other smaller non-unionist/non-nationalist parties, e.g. the Greens, because they are neither unionist or nationalist and/or because they back the policies of that particular party; c) the non-unionist and non-nationalist voter who nonetheless votes for a unionist or nationalist party for various reasons, such as tactical or lower preference voting. d) the committed rejectionists of the existing unionist v nationalist binary within Alliance's membership, assessing how the party attempts to either i) accommodate compromises between unionists and nationalists or ii) overcome Northern Ireland's divisions iii) understand what ethnic-blind policies, to diminish sectarian divisions, are backed by party members. This is an important project because: a) we need to understand how non-ethnic electors and party members view the ethnic party system in which they are asked to participate. b) Northern Ireland's centre ground is large and unlikely to disappear. Alliance saw its vote share increase by 11% and 9% respectively in the 2019 European and Westminster elections. The party's vote shares in those contests, of 19% (European)and 17% (Westminster) represented record highs for the party. Alliance has risen to become Northern Ireland's third-best supported party, behind only the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin.c) non-unionist and non-nationalist electors are the 'swing' voters who need to be won by unionists or nationalists in any future border poll on Northern Ireland's constitutional future, permitted under the Good Friday Agreement.d) little is known about the centre ground and its main party. There has been no book-length academic study of electors or parties outside Northern Ireland's two main traditions, only a solitary activist's volume on Alliance and only three journal articles dedicated to the organisation. This dearth of material highlights a wider research problem: that the focus upon ethnically divided societies is mainly their ethnic parties, not organisations beyond the sectarian divide.