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The 2019 Northern Ireland General Election Study

2019 年北爱尔兰大选研究

基本信息

批准号：
ES/T015527/1
负责人：
Jonathan Tonge
金额：
$ 9.11万
依托单位：
University of Liverpool
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT015527%2F1
关键词：
2019 Northern Ireland General Election

项目摘要

The 2019 Northern Ireland General Election survey will study the views of Northern Ireland's electors using a carefully weighted representative sample of 1500 electors.It will identify the basis of party choice and political attitudes in the context of a Brexit-dominated election in the part of the UK most directly affected by departure from the EU. The 2019 contest takes place amid political difficulties for Northern Ireland. The devolved power-sharing Assembly established under the Good Friday Agreement has collapsed, absent for more than 1,000 days. Divisions between Unionists (mainly pro-Leave) versus nationalists (overwhelmingly pro-Remain) have been exacerbated by Brexit. In addition to providing the definitive survey of why people voted the way they did at the election, this study intends to provide a comprehensive analysis of the extent of polarity, prospects for the restoration of local political institutions and possibilities for thawing inter-communal relations. It will also test what sort of Brexit Northern Ireland's electors will - and will not - accept. Are borders on the island of Ireland or in respect of GB-Northern Ireland trade viewed as acceptable or unacceptable and by which groups?We need to measure healing or thawing - and what creates either - along a range of axes. Sectarian division remains considerable, evidenced by a range of issues such as the maintenance of peace walls, segregated education and a low rate of 'intermarriage' There remains a residual security threat posed by dissident republicans, with successive Chief Constables cautioning against any return of a hard border.Yet the percentage of the electorate identifying as unionist or nationalist appears to be in decline, as those saying they are not aligned to either tradition grows. This 2019 election survey will test the extent of dealignment, its reasons, how this shapes party choice and how far the acute sectarian divide between Protestant-British Unionists and Catholic-Irish nationalists amongst the electorate has diminished. The survey will also examine the rationale of those who remain within their ethnic blocs and explore the basis of party choice inside those two main blocs. It will also test the extent, if at all, to which 'British' or 'Irish' identities, the equal legitimacy of which were acknowledged in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, have been supplanted by a common 'Northern Irish' identity, amid the dawning of a shared future.The election survey will examine voters' views on whether and how devolution might be restored. It will assess where voters place the political parties on a range of local and national political issues and will examine how voters rate the performance of parties on each major policy area, including constitutional questions, the economy, education, health, social development and welfare. Additionally, the study will ascertain the electorate's views and preferences on a range of post-conflict issues, as a truth and reconciliation commission, support for victims, reform of the judicial system and the integration of Northern Ireland society via, e.g. the removal of 'peace walls' and 'mixed' schooling. The 2019 election survey will evaluate the importance to the electorate - and its views on - various aspects of contested 'social liberalism', notably on abortion rights where Westminster has felt obliged to legislate for Northern Ireland.Based upon a large representative sample , the project will yield a vital survey dataset for use by social scientists, policy-makers and media. Given the contemporary salience of Northern Ireland to the Brexit debate, systematic examination of public opinion via a large-scale in-depth survey of 1,500 completed face-to-face interviews of a representative sample of the electorate is vital. Interviews will be completed across Northern Ireland within 6 weeks of the election. Datasets will be of considerable value to policy-makers, parties and media.

2019年北方爱尔兰大选调查将使用精心加权的1500名选举人代表样本来研究北方爱尔兰选举人的观点。它将确定在英国脱欧主导的选举背景下政党选择和政治态度的基础。受脱欧影响最直接的英国部分。2019年的比赛发生在北方爱尔兰的政治困难之中。根据《耶稣受难日协定》建立的权力分享大会已经解散，缺席了1 000多天。英国退欧加剧了统一主义者（主要是支持脱欧的人）与民族主义者（绝大多数支持留欧的人）之间的分歧。这项研究除了对人们为什么以选举时的方式投票进行明确调查外，还打算全面分析两极分化的程度、恢复地方政治机构的前景和解冻社区间关系的可能性。这也将考验北方爱尔兰的选举人会--以及不会--接受什么样的英国退欧。爱尔兰岛上的边界或英国-北爱尔兰爱尔兰贸易方面的边界是否被视为可接受或不可接受，哪些团体认为可接受？我们需要沿着一系列轴来测量愈合或解冻--以及是什么造成了这两种情况。宗派分歧仍然很大，一系列问题证明了这一点，如维持和平墙，隔离教育和低比例的“通婚”。持不同政见的共和党人仍然构成残余的安全威胁，连续几任警察局长警告不要恢复硬边界。然而，选民中认为是统一主义者或民族主义者的比例似乎在下降，因为那些说他们不符合任何一种传统的人越来越多。这项2019年的选举调查将测试不结盟的程度，其原因，这如何影响政党选择，以及选民中新教-英国联合主义者和天主教-爱尔兰民族主义者之间的严重宗派分歧减少了多少。调查还将审查那些留在其族裔集团内的人的理由，并探讨这两个主要集团内政党选择的基础。它还将测试在共同未来的曙光中，“英国人”或“爱尔兰人”身份的平等合法性在多大程度上被共同的“北方爱尔兰人”身份所取代。1998年耶稣受难日协议承认了“英国人”或“爱尔兰人”身份的平等合法性。调查将评估选民对各政党在一系列地方和国家政治问题上的看法，并将研究选民如何评价各政党在每个主要政策领域的表现，包括宪法问题、经济、教育、卫生、社会发展和福利。此外，这项研究还将确定选民对一系列冲突后问题的看法和偏好，如真相与和解委员会、对受害者的支助、司法系统的改革以及通过拆除“和平墙”和“混合”学校等方式实现北方爱尔兰社会的融合。2019年的选举调查将评估选民的重要性-以及他们对有争议的“社会自由主义”各个方面的看法，特别是关于堕胎权的问题，威斯敏斯特认为有义务为北方爱尔兰立法。该项目将根据大量有代表性的样本，产生一个重要的调查数据集，供社会科学家，政策制定者和媒体使用。鉴于当前北方爱尔兰在英国退欧辩论中的重要性，通过对代表性选民样本的1，500次完整面对面访谈进行大规模深入调查，对公众舆论进行系统研究至关重要。选举后6周内，将在北方爱尔兰各地完成面试。数据集将对决策者、缔约方和媒体具有相当大的价值。