The 2019 Northern Ireland General Election Study

2019年北爱尔兰大选调查将通过对1500名选民进行仔细加权的代表性样本，研究北爱尔兰选民的观点。它将在英国受脱欧影响最直接的地区举行以英国退欧为主导的选举的背景下，确定政党选择和政治态度的基础。2019年大选在北爱尔兰面临政治困难的情况下举行。根据《耶稣受难日协议》（Good Friday Agreement）建立的权力下放的权力分享大会（Assembly）已经崩溃，已经缺席了1000多天。联合主义者（主要支持脱欧）与民族主义者（绝大多数支持留欧）之间的分歧因英国退欧而加剧。除了对为什么人们在选举中投票的方式提供明确的调查外，本研究还打算对两极分化的程度、恢复地方政治机构的前景以及解冻社区间关系的可能性进行全面分析。它还将检验北爱尔兰选民将接受（或不接受）什么样的英国退欧。爱尔兰岛边界或GB-Northern Ireland贸易是否被视为可接受或不可接受？哪些群体？我们需要沿着一系列轴来衡量愈合或解冻——以及是什么造成了这两种情况。宗派分裂仍然相当严重，比如维护和平墙、隔离教育和低“异族通婚”率等一系列问题。持不同政见的共和党人仍然构成了安全威胁，历届警察局长都警告不要回归硬边界。然而，自认为是联合主义者或民族主义者的选民比例似乎在下降，因为那些表示自己不支持这两种传统的人越来越多。2019年的选举调查将检验脱欧的程度、原因、脱欧对政党选择的影响，以及选民中新教-英国统一党和天主教-爱尔兰民族主义者之间尖锐的宗派分歧在多大程度上缩小了。这项调查还将调查那些留在本民族集团内的人的理由，并探讨这两个主要集团内政党选择的基础。在共同未来的黎明到来之际，1998年《耶稣受难日协议》（Good Friday Agreement）中承认的“英国人”或“爱尔兰人”身份在多大程度上被共同的“北爱尔兰人”身份所取代，如果有的话，这也将是一个考验。选举调查将调查选民对权力下放是否以及如何恢复的看法。它将评估选民在一系列地方和国家政治问题上对政党的评价，并将审查选民如何评价政党在每个主要政策领域的表现，包括宪法问题、经济、教育、卫生、社会发展和福利。此外，该研究将确定选民对一系列冲突后问题的看法和偏好，如真相与和解委员会、对受害者的支持、司法制度改革以及通过拆除“和平墙”和“混合”学校等方式实现北爱尔兰社会一体化。2019年的选举调查将评估对选民的重要性，以及他们对有争议的“社会自由主义”各个方面的看法，尤其是堕胎权，威斯敏斯特认为有义务为北爱尔兰立法。基于大量代表性样本，该项目将产生一个重要的调查数据集，供社会科学家、政策制定者和媒体使用。鉴于北爱尔兰在当前英国退欧辩论中的突出地位，通过对1500名选民的代表性样本进行面对面访谈的大规模深入调查，对公众舆论进行系统检查至关重要。北爱尔兰各地的采访将在选举后的6周内完成。数据集对政策制定者、政党和媒体将具有相当大的价值。

The 2019 Northern Ireland General Election survey will study the views of Northern Ireland's electors using a carefully weighted representative sample of 1500 electors.It will identify the basis of party choice and political attitudes in the context of a Brexit-dominated election in the part of the UK most directly affected by departure from the EU. The 2019 contest takes place amid political difficulties for Northern Ireland. The devolved power-sharing Assembly established under the Good Friday Agreement has collapsed, absent for more than 1,000 days. Divisions between Unionists (mainly pro-Leave) versus nationalists (overwhelmingly pro-Remain) have been exacerbated by Brexit. In addition to providing the definitive survey of why people voted the way they did at the election, this study intends to provide a comprehensive analysis of the extent of polarity, prospects for the restoration of local political institutions and possibilities for thawing inter-communal relations. It will also test what sort of Brexit Northern Ireland's electors will - and will not - accept. Are borders on the island of Ireland or in respect of GB-Northern Ireland trade viewed as acceptable or unacceptable and by which groups?We need to measure healing or thawing - and what creates either - along a range of axes. Sectarian division remains considerable, evidenced by a range of issues such as the maintenance of peace walls, segregated education and a low rate of 'intermarriage' There remains a residual security threat posed by dissident republicans, with successive Chief Constables cautioning against any return of a hard border.Yet the percentage of the electorate identifying as unionist or nationalist appears to be in decline, as those saying they are not aligned to either tradition grows. This 2019 election survey will test the extent of dealignment, its reasons, how this shapes party choice and how far the acute sectarian divide between Protestant-British Unionists and Catholic-Irish nationalists amongst the electorate has diminished. The survey will also examine the rationale of those who remain within their ethnic blocs and explore the basis of party choice inside those two main blocs. It will also test the extent, if at all, to which 'British' or 'Irish' identities, the equal legitimacy of which were acknowledged in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, have been supplanted by a common 'Northern Irish' identity, amid the dawning of a shared future.The election survey will examine voters' views on whether and how devolution might be restored. It will assess where voters place the political parties on a range of local and national political issues and will examine how voters rate the performance of parties on each major policy area, including constitutional questions, the economy, education, health, social development and welfare. Additionally, the study will ascertain the electorate's views and preferences on a range of post-conflict issues, as a truth and reconciliation commission, support for victims, reform of the judicial system and the integration of Northern Ireland society via, e.g. the removal of 'peace walls' and 'mixed' schooling. The 2019 election survey will evaluate the importance to the electorate - and its views on - various aspects of contested 'social liberalism', notably on abortion rights where Westminster has felt obliged to legislate for Northern Ireland.Based upon a large representative sample , the project will yield a vital survey dataset for use by social scientists, policy-makers and media. Given the contemporary salience of Northern Ireland to the Brexit debate, systematic examination of public opinion via a large-scale in-depth survey of 1,500 completed face-to-face interviews of a representative sample of the electorate is vital. Interviews will be completed across Northern Ireland within 6 weeks of the election. Datasets will be of considerable value to policy-makers, parties and media.