The 2019 Northern Ireland General Election Study

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The 2019 Northern Ireland General Election survey will study the views of Northern Ireland's electors using a carefully weighted representative sample of 1500 electors.It will identify the basis of party choice and political attitudes in the context of a Brexit-dominated election in the part of the UK most directly affected by departure from the EU. The 2019 contest takes place amid political difficulties for Northern Ireland. The devolved power-sharing Assembly established under the Good Friday Agreement has collapsed, absent for more than 1,000 days. Divisions between Unionists (mainly pro-Leave) versus nationalists (overwhelmingly pro-Remain) have been exacerbated by Brexit. In addition to providing the definitive survey of why people voted the way they did at the election, this study intends to provide a comprehensive analysis of the extent of polarity, prospects for the restoration of local political institutions and possibilities for thawing inter-communal relations. It will also test what sort of Brexit Northern Ireland's electors will - and will not - accept. Are borders on the island of Ireland or in respect of GB-Northern Ireland trade viewed as acceptable or unacceptable and by which groups?We need to measure healing or thawing - and what creates either - along a range of axes. Sectarian division remains considerable, evidenced by a range of issues such as the maintenance of peace walls, segregated education and a low rate of 'intermarriage' There remains a residual security threat posed by dissident republicans, with successive Chief Constables cautioning against any return of a hard border.Yet the percentage of the electorate identifying as unionist or nationalist appears to be in decline, as those saying they are not aligned to either tradition grows. This 2019 election survey will test the extent of dealignment, its reasons, how this shapes party choice and how far the acute sectarian divide between Protestant-British Unionists and Catholic-Irish nationalists amongst the electorate has diminished. The survey will also examine the rationale of those who remain within their ethnic blocs and explore the basis of party choice inside those two main blocs. It will also test the extent, if at all, to which 'British' or 'Irish' identities, the equal legitimacy of which were acknowledged in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, have been supplanted by a common 'Northern Irish' identity, amid the dawning of a shared future.The election survey will examine voters' views on whether and how devolution might be restored. It will assess where voters place the political parties on a range of local and national political issues and will examine how voters rate the performance of parties on each major policy area, including constitutional questions, the economy, education, health, social development and welfare. Additionally, the study will ascertain the electorate's views and preferences on a range of post-conflict issues, as a truth and reconciliation commission, support for victims, reform of the judicial system and the integration of Northern Ireland society via, e.g. the removal of 'peace walls' and 'mixed' schooling. The 2019 election survey will evaluate the importance to the electorate - and its views on - various aspects of contested 'social liberalism', notably on abortion rights where Westminster has felt obliged to legislate for Northern Ireland.Based upon a large representative sample , the project will yield a vital survey dataset for use by social scientists, policy-makers and media. Given the contemporary salience of Northern Ireland to the Brexit debate, systematic examination of public opinion via a large-scale in-depth survey of 1,500 completed face-to-face interviews of a representative sample of the electorate is vital. Interviews will be completed across Northern Ireland within 6 weeks of the election. Datasets will be of considerable value to policy-makers, parties and media.