Welsh Election Study 2021

我们提议对将于2021年5月举行的威尔士议会选举进行研究，很明显，这次选举将在一个几乎前所未有的社会和经济动荡时期举行。新冠肺炎疫情正在让权力下放和全州范围内的政府绩效得到最大程度的缓解，权力下放的选举将是危机爆发以来的首次重大选举考验。此外，即使与英国退出欧盟相关的政治阴谋在某种程度上被公共卫生紧急事件掩盖了，但自2016年以来震动英国政治的许多关键问题仍然悬而未决，并继续深刻影响威尔士政治。工党对威尔士选民的控制几乎是史无前例的，长达一个世纪之久--该党自1922年以来在每一次大选和每一次权力下放选举中都是得票率和民选代表最多的政党--显然正受到前所未有的威胁。威尔士保守党在2019年大选中表现非常强劲，传统上在权力下放选举中表现更好的政党PlayCymru在新领导人的领导下前所未有地团结起来，致力于独立事业。因此，无论以什么标准衡量，2021年威尔士议会选举都将具有特别重要的意义。这项研究产生的数据将对帮助学者理解影响结果的主要因素做出重大贡献--也许包括对新冠肺炎和英国退欧的反应。民意数据将通过在正式竞选活动开始前、竞选期间和选举后立即进行的选民态度详细调查来收集，受访者在所有三个阶段都进行了采访，以探索个人层面的态度和预期/实际的投票行为。2021年的选举也将值得注意，因为选民将为民主机构选择代表，这个机构不仅有一个新的名称(国民议会已成为威尔士议会)，而且由于所得税的部分下放，还享有广泛的新权力。由于投票权扩大到16岁和17岁，选举人是在新的选举权基础上当选的。为了便于详细研究这些最近的变化，调查将对这一新获得选举权的年龄组进行过多抽样，并将包括旨在探索税收下放如何影响竞选活动的问题。研究团队是连续性和重大变革的结合体。皮温·琼斯是1999年、2003年、2007年和2019年威尔士选举调查的负责人，自1997年以来一直在威尔士的每一次选举/全民公投调查中发挥一定的作用。普尔和温科特也是2019年球队的一员。但萨里奇将加入他们的行列，尽管他是威尔士选举调查的新手，但他带来了广泛的相关经验和新的视角。作为研究助理加入该团队的还有拉纳，他曾是富布赖特学者，也是近年来唯一一篇主要关注威尔士选举的博士论文的作者。该提案的一个新特点是计划与提交苏格兰和北爱尔兰选举研究平行提案的团队(分别为PI亨德森和加里)进行广泛合作。在苏格兰，这种合作将比以往任何时候都要深入，而在北爱尔兰，这将是一个全新的发展。设想的合作不仅包括解决共同问题，而且还包括能力建设的联合方案。

We propose to undertake a study of the Welsh Parliament election that will take place in May 2021.It is already clear that this election will take place in a period of almost unprecedented social and economic turmoil. The Covid-19 pandemic is throwing government performance at devolved and state-wide levels into the sharpest relief, and the devolved elections will be the first major electoral test since the outbreak of the crisis.Moreover, even if the political intrigue related to the UK's withdrawal from the EU has been somewhat eclipsed by the public health emergency, many of the key questions that have convulsed UK politics since in 2016 remain unresolved and continue to profoundly affect Welsh politics. Labour's almost unprecedented, century-long grip on the Welsh electorate - the party has been the largest in terms of votes and elected representatives at every general election since 1922 and at every devolved election - is apparently under threat as never before. Welsh Conservatives performed very strongly in the 2019 general elections and Plaid Cymru, a party that has traditionally done better in devolved elections, has under its new leader rallied as never before to the cause of independence.By any measure, therefore, the 2021 Welsh Parliament election promises to be particularly significant. The data generated by the study will make a major contribution to helping scholars understand the main factors - including perhaps the response to Covid-19 and Brexit - that shaped the outcome. Public opinion data will be collected via detailed surveys of voter attitudes conducted before the start of the official campaign, during the campaign period, and immediately after the election, with respondents interviewed at all three stages to explore individual-level attitudes and intended/actual voting behaviours.The 2021 election will also be notable because voters will be choosing representatives for democratic body that not only has a new name (with the National Assembly having become the Welsh Parliament), but also enjoys extensive new powers as a result of the partial devolution of income tax, and which is being elected on the basis of a new electoral franchise as a result of the extension of voting rights to 16 and 17 year olds. To facilitate detailed study of these recent changes, the survey will oversample this newly enfranchised age group and will include questions designed to explore the way in which tax devolution shapes the campaign. The research team is a combination of continuity and significant change. PI Wyn Jones was/is Director of the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2019 Welsh Election Surveys and has been played some role in every election/referendum survey in Wales since 1997. Poole and Wincott are also part of the 2019 team. But they will be joined by Surridge who, although new to the Welsh Election Survey, brings both extensive relevant experience and new perspectives to bare. Also included in the team as a research associate is Larner, a former Fulbright scholar and author of the only doctoral thesis in recent years to focus primarily on elections in Wales. A novel feature of the proposal is the extensive cooperation planned with teams submitting parallel proposals for Scottish and Northern Ireland Election Studies (PIs Henderson and Garry, respectively). This cooperation will be deeper than has ever been attempted in the case of Scotland, and in the case of Northern Ireland will be a wholly new development. The cooperation envisaged encompasses not only fielding common questions, but also a joint programme of capacity building.