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Welsh Election Study 2021

2021 年威尔士选举研究

基本信息

批准号：
ES/V009559/1
负责人：
Richard Wyn Jones
金额：
$ 96.02万
依托单位：
CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV009559%2F1
关键词：
Welsh Election Study 2021

项目摘要

We propose to undertake a study of the Welsh Parliament election that will take place in May 2021.It is already clear that this election will take place in a period of almost unprecedented social and economic turmoil. The Covid-19 pandemic is throwing government performance at devolved and state-wide levels into the sharpest relief, and the devolved elections will be the first major electoral test since the outbreak of the crisis.Moreover, even if the political intrigue related to the UK's withdrawal from the EU has been somewhat eclipsed by the public health emergency, many of the key questions that have convulsed UK politics since in 2016 remain unresolved and continue to profoundly affect Welsh politics. Labour's almost unprecedented, century-long grip on the Welsh electorate - the party has been the largest in terms of votes and elected representatives at every general election since 1922 and at every devolved election - is apparently under threat as never before. Welsh Conservatives performed very strongly in the 2019 general elections and Plaid Cymru, a party that has traditionally done better in devolved elections, has under its new leader rallied as never before to the cause of independence.By any measure, therefore, the 2021 Welsh Parliament election promises to be particularly significant. The data generated by the study will make a major contribution to helping scholars understand the main factors - including perhaps the response to Covid-19 and Brexit - that shaped the outcome. Public opinion data will be collected via detailed surveys of voter attitudes conducted before the start of the official campaign, during the campaign period, and immediately after the election, with respondents interviewed at all three stages to explore individual-level attitudes and intended/actual voting behaviours.The 2021 election will also be notable because voters will be choosing representatives for democratic body that not only has a new name (with the National Assembly having become the Welsh Parliament), but also enjoys extensive new powers as a result of the partial devolution of income tax, and which is being elected on the basis of a new electoral franchise as a result of the extension of voting rights to 16 and 17 year olds. To facilitate detailed study of these recent changes, the survey will oversample this newly enfranchised age group and will include questions designed to explore the way in which tax devolution shapes the campaign. The research team is a combination of continuity and significant change. PI Wyn Jones was/is Director of the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2019 Welsh Election Surveys and has been played some role in every election/referendum survey in Wales since 1997. Poole and Wincott are also part of the 2019 team. But they will be joined by Surridge who, although new to the Welsh Election Survey, brings both extensive relevant experience and new perspectives to bare. Also included in the team as a research associate is Larner, a former Fulbright scholar and author of the only doctoral thesis in recent years to focus primarily on elections in Wales. A novel feature of the proposal is the extensive cooperation planned with teams submitting parallel proposals for Scottish and Northern Ireland Election Studies (PIs Henderson and Garry, respectively). This cooperation will be deeper than has ever been attempted in the case of Scotland, and in the case of Northern Ireland will be a wholly new development. The cooperation envisaged encompasses not only fielding common questions, but also a joint programme of capacity building.

我们建议对将于2021年5月举行的威尔士议会选举进行研究，很明显，这次选举将在一个几乎前所未有的社会和经济动荡时期举行。新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19，即2019冠状病毒病）大流行令地方政府和州级政府的表现得到了最大程度的缓解，而地方选举将是危机爆发以来的首次重大选举考验。此外，即使与英国退出欧盟有关的政治阴谋在某种程度上被公共卫生紧急事件所掩盖，许多自2016年以来震撼英国政治的关键问题仍未得到解决，并继续深刻影响威尔士政治。工党对威尔士选民几乎前所未有的长达一个世纪的控制--该党在1922年以来的每一次大选和每一次分权选举中都是选票和当选代表最多的政党--显然受到了前所未有的威胁。威尔士保守党在2019年大选中表现非常强劲，而传统上在权力下放选举中表现更好的Plaid Cymru党，在其新领导人的领导下，前所未有地团结起来支持独立事业。因此，无论如何，2021年威尔士议会选举都将特别重要。该研究产生的数据将为帮助学者理解影响结果的主要因素--可能包括对新冠肺炎和英国退欧的反应--做出重大贡献。民意数据将通过在正式竞选开始前、竞选期间和选举结束后立即进行的选民态度详细调查来收集，在所有三个阶段对受访者进行采访，以探讨个人层面的态度和预期/2021年的选举也将是值得注意的，因为选民将选择民主机构的代表，不仅有一个新的威尔士议会的名称是威尔士议会（国民议会已成为威尔士议会），但由于所得税的部分下放，它也享有广泛的新权力，而且由于投票权扩大到16和17奥尔兹，它是根据新的选举权选举产生的。为了便于详细研究这些最近的变化，调查将对这个新获得选举权的年龄组进行过度抽样，并将包括旨在探索税收下放如何影响竞选的问题。研究团队是连续性和重大变化的结合。PI温·琼斯是/是1999年，2003年，2007年和2019年威尔士选举调查的主任，并自1997年以来在威尔士的每一次选举/公投调查中发挥了一定的作用。Poole和Wincott也是2019年团队的一部分。但萨里奇也将加入他们的行列，尽管他是威尔士选举调查的新手，但他带来了丰富的相关经验和新的观点。作为研究助理，该团队还包括Larner，他是前富布赖特学者，也是近年来唯一一篇主要关注威尔士选举的博士论文的作者。该提案的一个新特点是计划与为苏格兰和北方爱尔兰选举研究（分别为PI亨德森和加里）提交平行提案的团队进行广泛合作。这种合作将比在苏格兰的情况下所尝试的任何时候都要深入，在北方爱尔兰的情况下将是一个全新的发展。所设想的合作不仅包括解决共同问题，还包括能力建设联合方案。