Iceberg forecasting - from days to decades (ICECAST)

冰山对航运和海洋作业构成危险，并在气候变化中发挥积极作用，因为格陵兰岛和南极洲的大冰盖面积缩小。自20世纪90年代以来，我们一直在开发一个模型来代表极地海洋中冰山的漂移和融化。在NERC的资助下，该模型最近已作为NEMO海洋模型中的一个互动选项实施，以调查格陵兰岛的冰山崩解，最近一次是跟踪2013年从南极洲崩解的巨型冰山。NEMO框架在整个欧洲被广泛使用，英国气象局在2010年左右采用了NEMO。英国气象局开发了无缝预测系统，使用NEMO进行FOAM（海洋同化预测模型）的每日预报，GloSea 5（全球季节预报）的季节预报和HadGEM 3（哈德利中心气候模型系列中的最新版本）的气候预测。我们建议与气象局和另一个最终用户（孔斯贝格卫星服务）合作，提供预报和预测主要冰山漂移的能力，时间范围从几天到几十年。

Icebergs present a hazard to shipping and marine operations, and play an active role in climate change as the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica decline in size. Since the 1990s, we have been developing a model to represent the drift and melting of icebergs in the polar oceans. With NERC funding, this model has recently been implemented as an interactive option in the NEMO ocean model to investigate variable Greenland iceberg calving, and most recently to track a giant iceberg that calved from Antarctica in 2013. The NEMO framework is widely used throughout Europe, and the UK Met Office adopted NEMO around 2010. The Met Office has developed seamless prediction systems that use NEMO for daily forecasts in FOAM (Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model), for seasonal forecasts in GloSea5 (Global Seasonal Forecasting) and for climate prediction in HadGEM3 (the latest in the Hadley Centre family of climate models). We propose to work with the Met Office and one other end user (Kongsberg Satellite Services) to provide the capability for forecasting and predicting the drift of major icebergs on timescale from days to decades.