Iceberg forecasting - from days to decades (ICECAST)

冰山预报 - 从几天到几十年（ICECAST）

• 批准号: NE/M007820/1
• 负责人: Robert Marsh
• 金额: $ 11.61万
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM007820%2F1
• 关键词: Iceberg; forecasting; days; decades; ICECAST

Icebergs present a hazard to shipping and marine operations, and play an active role in climate change as the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica decline in size. Since the 1990s, we have been developing a model to represent the drift and melting of icebergs in the polar oceans. With NERC funding, this model has recently been implemented as an interactive option in the NEMO ocean model to investigate variable Greenland iceberg calving, and most recently to track a giant iceberg that calved from Antarctica in 2013. The NEMO framework is widely used throughout Europe, and the UK Met Office adopted NEMO around 2010. The Met Office has developed seamless prediction systems that use NEMO for daily forecasts in FOAM (Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model), for seasonal forecasts in GloSea5 (Global Seasonal Forecasting) and for climate prediction in HadGEM3 (the latest in the Hadley Centre family of climate models). We propose to work with the Met Office and one other end user (Kongsberg Satellite Services) to provide the capability for forecasting and predicting the drift of major icebergs on timescale from days to decades.

随着格陵兰岛和南极洲的大冰盖面积缩小，冰山对航运和海洋作业构成了危险，并在气候变化中发挥了积极作用。自20世纪90年代以来，我们一直在开发一个模型来描述极地海洋中冰山的漂移和融化。在NERC的资助下，这一模型最近作为尼莫海洋模型的一个交互选项被实施，以研究可变的格陵兰冰山崩解，最近的一次是跟踪2013年从南极洲崩解的巨大冰山。NEMO框架在整个欧洲被广泛使用，英国气象局在2010年左右采用了NEMO。气象局开发了无缝预报系统，将NEMO用于SPEAM(海洋同化预报模式)的每日预报、GloSea5(全球季节预报)的季节预报和HadGEM3(哈德利中心气候模型家族的最新型号)的气候预报。我们建议与气象局和另一个终端用户(康斯伯格卫星服务公司)合作，提供从几天到几十年的时间尺度上预测和预测主要冰山漂移的能力。

项目成果

The history of a cluster of large icebergs on leaving the Weddell Sea pack ice and their impact on the ocean

• DOI: 10.1017/s0954102022000517
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Antarctic Science
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: G. Bigg;R. Marsh

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic

北大西洋冰山分布季节预测的前景

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3136-4
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Natural Hazards
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Marsh R