Storm Risk Assessment of Interdependent Infrastructure Networks

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Electricity infrastructure provides a vital services to consumers. Across the UK there are thousands of miles of overhead lines and other assets that are vulnerable to a number of environmental risks. Wind risks have caused more disruptions to power supplies in the UK than any other environmental risks. Despite their importance, the future risks associated with windstorm disruption are currently highly uncertain as the coarse spatial resolution of climate models makes them unable to properly represent wind storm processes.STRAIN will address two challenges for infrastructure operators and stakeholders who are urgently seeking to understand and mitigate wind related risks in their pursuit to deliver more reliable services:(i) Build upon state-of-the-art modelling and analysis capabilities to assess the vulnerability of electricity networks and their engineering assets to high winds. This will consider the impact of different extreme wind events, over different parts of the electricity network, the households and businesses connected, and also apply a model representing infrastructure inter-connections to understand the potential impact on other infrastructures that require electricity such as road, rail and water systems.(ii) Climate models provide very uncertain wind projections, yet infrastructure operators require an understanding of future climate change to develop long term asset management strategies. To provide the necessary information we shall work with the Met Office and benefit from new high resolution simulations of future wind climate using a 1.5km climate model. These simulations have proven capable of representing convective storm processes, that drive many storms across the UK, and have already proven that they better capture extreme rainfall events.These methods will be applied to a case study of an electricity distribution network. These are more vulnerable to windstorms than the high voltage national transmission network.STRAIN will therefore, by synthesising and translating cutting-edge research, provide electricity distribution network operators with a significantly improved understanding of wind risks both now and in the longer term. This will improve the reliability of electricity supply to UK consumers including other infrastructure providers reliant on electricity distribution networks, and reduce costs by enabling more effective allocation of investments in adaptation and asset management. Furthermore, it will help other infrastructure service providers better understand the impacts of electricity disruption on their own systems, and plan accordingly. The improved understanding of future extreme wind storms will provide benefits across an even wider group of infrastructure and built environment stakeholders.