Methane, Ozone and the Carbon Budget for 1.5 degrees (MOC1.5)

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It will be very challenging to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and even more so to achieve the ambition of restricting temperatures below a 1.5 degree increase. While restricting carbon dioxide emissions must form the central part of any strategy, reducing other greenhouse gases such as methane can play an important role. Reducing levels of methane can increase the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This happens in two ways. Decreasing methane will decrease surface temperatures reducing the carbon dioxide lost from soils and leaves (for carbon dioxide this is already accounted for, but for methane this has previously been neglected). Decreasing methane will decrease levels of ozone, a gas that is poisonous to plants (and people), and hence increase plant growth.This project will use computer models of the chemistry of the atmosphere, of vegetation growth, and of the carbon cycle to simulate the total climate impact (including the increased carbon uptake) of a realistic methane reduction scenario. This will give policymakers a better understand of the climate impacts of methane reduction and allow them to better judge the balance between carbon dioxide and methane mitigation measures in the total package of climate policy solutions.A useful co-benefit of this project will be to calculate the air quality benefits (to people and crops) of the methane mitigation.